Census numbers are way up

[BSK]

For those running true camera censuses, I would be curious to hear how your numbers have changed over the last few years. For most of the areas that were had hit by EHD in '07, I was seeing low and NOT rebounding numbers since the outbreak. However, I did see much better fawn recruitment last year, and that shows in the adult population this year. My population numbers region-wide are up 40% this year from last year.

 

[Anonymous]

BSK could you post guidlines for how you do a camera census.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

Our numbers have been WAY up as well. I thought we had good fawn crop last year, but after looking at the fawn recruitment this year....WOW. I usually see maybe about 2 does each summer with 2 fawns a piece. Most just have 1 or none at all. This year is more close to 5 with twins a piece. It's good to know that the numbers are coming back and that the herd is pretty dang healthy (I believe the numbers are now in the norm, atleast where I am). I'm actually getting pretty frustrating looking at all the pics from trailcams. Even my Scoutguard is taking close to 1500 pics a week on a lower than normal trigger setting. I just want to punch my computer from all the does lol.

We are not seeing as many 2 1/2 + yo bucks this year as we have been though. We have seen more and more each year from 2005 up till last summer. Last year, we had a TON of GOOD older bucks. I think the biggest reason for this shift is due to the habitat changes made recently. The last 2 years, there has been close to 170 acres thats been logged around us and some logging on our place. Some salt licks thats traditionally not had does there (hardly) ever, now, are doe only licks. I think what has happened is the does have completely taken over our place due to the habitat improvements for fawning. I just hope the bucks come back during the hunting season.

I'm not used to not being able to get good bucks during the summer months :( . The "change" came quicker than expected. Hopefully, those buck pics and/or kills will come this fall

 

[BSK]

Our numbers have been WAY up as well. I thought we had good fawn crop last year, but after looking at the fawn recruitment this year....WOW. I usually see maybe about 2 does each summer with 2 fawns a piece. Most just have 1 or none at all. This year is more close to 5 with twins a piece. It's good to know that the numbers are coming back and that the herd is pretty dang healthy (I believe the numbers are now in the norm, atleast where I am). I'm actually getting pretty frustrating looking at all the pics from trailcams. Even my Scoutguard is taking close to 1500 pics a week on a lower than normal trigger setting. I just want to punch my computer from all the does lol.

We are not seeing as many 2 1/2 + yo bucks this year as we have been though. We have seen more and more each year from 2005 up till last summer. Last year, we had a TON of GOOD older bucks. I think the biggest reason for this shift is due to the habitat changes made recently. The last 2 years, there has been close to 170 acres thats been logged around us and some logging on our place. Some salt licks thats traditionally not had does there (hardly) ever, now, are doe only licks. I think what has happened is the does have completely taken over our place due to the habitat improvements for fawning. I just hope the bucks come back during the hunting season.

I'm not used to not being able to get good bucks during the summer months :( . The "change" came quicker than expected. Hopefully, those buck pics and/or kills will come this fall

You're right on the money JCDEERMAN. I'm seeing the same thing on my place. The northern half used to be unbroken hardwoods, and that's where I would normally get most of my summer-time buck pics. But now with all the logging on the northern section, all I get are doe, fawn and yearling buck pics there. The bucks have all been forced to the opposite end of the property.

 

[BSK]

BSK could you post guidlines for how you do a camera census.

The population numbers are based on the total number of bucks, does and fawns in all pictures. The number of unique, individual bucks that make up all those buck pictures is then used to calculate the number of unique does and fawns that make up all of the doe and fawn pictures. This calculation works off the assumption (and it can be a dangerous assumption) that individual does and fawns are repeat-photographed about as often as individual bucks are.


Here are the numbers needed to run the calculations:

TB = Total Bucks in all pictures
TD = Total Does in all pictures
TF = Total Fawns in all pictures
UB = Unique, individual bucks that make up all of the buck pictures (identified by rack configuration and/or body markings).


The calculations:

(TD / TB) * UB = CUD (the Caculated number of Unique Does)
(TF / TB) * UB = CUF (the Calculated number of Unique Fawns)
CUD + CUF + UB = total number of deer


Some other useful numbers:

(TD / TB) = adult sex ratio (does per buck)
(TF / TD) * 100 = fawn recruitment rate expressed as a percentage


As an example, let's say that counting up all the bucks, does and fawns in pictures, you find you have 100 bucks, 150 does, and 120 fawns in pictures. After going through the 100 buck pictures, and looking at antler configuration and any unique body markings, you find that those 100 bucks in pictures are just a lot of repeat photographs of only 10 unique, individual bucks (and expect your unique number of bucks to be FAR, FAR less than your total numbers of bucks in pictures, as each buck may be repeat photographed dozens of times).

So use the calcultations:

TB (Total Bucks in all pictures) = 100
TD (Total Does in all pictures) = 150
TF (Total Fawns in all pictures) = 120
UB (Unique, individual bucks that make up all of the buck pictures) = 10

(150 / 100) * 10 = 15 (the Caculated number of Unique Does)
(120 / 100) * 10 = 12 (the Calculated number of Unique Fawns)
15 + 12 + 10 = 37 (total number of deer)

(150 / 100) = 1.5 adult does per buck
(120 / 150) * 100 = 80% fawn recruitment

 

[woodchuckc]

Our numbers have been WAY up as well. I thought we had good fawn crop last year, but after looking at the fawn recruitment this year....WOW. I usually see maybe about 2 does each summer with 2 fawns a piece. Most just have 1 or none at all. This year is more close to 5 with twins a piece. It's good to know that the numbers are coming back and that the herd is pretty dang healthy (I believe the numbers are now in the norm, atleast where I am). I'm actually getting pretty frustrating looking at all the pics from trailcams. Even my Scoutguard is taking close to 1500 pics a week on a lower than normal trigger setting. I just want to punch my computer from all the does lol.

We are not seeing as many 2 1/2 + yo bucks this year as we have been though. We have seen more and more each year from 2005 up till last summer. Last year, we had a TON of GOOD older bucks. I think the biggest reason for this shift is due to the habitat changes made recently. The last 2 years, there has been close to 170 acres thats been logged around us and some logging on our place. Some salt licks thats traditionally not had does there (hardly) ever, now, are doe only licks. I think what has happened is the does have completely taken over our place due to the habitat improvements for fawning. I just hope the bucks come back during the hunting season.

I'm not used to not being able to get good bucks during the summer months :( . The "change" came quicker than expected. Hopefully, those buck pics and/or kills will come this fall

JC,
I think I am on the other end of Hickman Co. from you (I'm in the SW corner), but I'm seeing very similar things as you this year. Just about every doe has at least one fawn, and many with 2. I even saw one with 3 fawns in my back field this past weekend, but she may have picked one up whose mother was killed. This is a far cry from the past 3 summers, when it was actually rather uncommon to see fawns with every doe and I don't remember seeing any twins. My coyote population is really down this year, so I'm sure that helps a bunch with fawn recruitment.

I'm getting a good number of bucks also, and antler growth seems significantly greater per age group than the past few years. With the low timber prices, the closest significant amount of logging to me this past year has been about 2 miles away, so I don't think that is having a major impact on what I am seeing this summer.

 

[BSK]

Just about every doe has at least one fawn, and many with 2. I even saw one with 3 fawns in my back field this past weekend, but she may have picked one up whose mother was killed. This is a far cry from the past 3 summers, when it was actually rather uncommon to see fawns with every doe and I don't remember seeing any twins.

The two years after the EHD outbreak it wasn't uncommon to see fawn recruitment rates as low as 20% (2 fawns for every 10 adult does). Last year it jumped up to around 60% and this year it is even better.

My coyote population is really down this year, so I'm sure that helps a bunch with fawn recruitment.

My coyote population really started to fall last year, and is very low this year.

 

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the guidelines for the census. How long do you run the cameras before you fill you have enough data?

 

[Coach]

I'm opposite of everyone I think....I've seen nothing but 4 does on my trailcams, one fawn and many coyotes. Not a single buck...that's 3 months of camera pics

 

[BSK]

Thanks for the guidelines for the census. How long do you run the cameras before you fill you have enough data?

JJS,

Here's combined data from a large number of baited censuses I have run (the red line is the actual data, the black dashed line is the statistical curve based on the real data). It displays the percent of bucks that are photo-captured by day of the census. Normally after 7 days (1 week) I have around 55% of the bucks I'm going to get. At 2 weeks (14 days), I have 80% of what I'm going to get. At 3 weeks, I have 95% of what I'm going to get. So for a baited census, I would feel extremely comfortable with three weeks of data.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

Our numbers have been WAY up as well. I thought we had good fawn crop last year, but after looking at the fawn recruitment this year....WOW. I usually see maybe about 2 does each summer with 2 fawns a piece. Most just have 1 or none at all. This year is more close to 5 with twins a piece. It's good to know that the numbers are coming back and that the herd is pretty dang healthy (I believe the numbers are now in the norm, atleast where I am). I'm actually getting pretty frustrating looking at all the pics from trailcams. Even my Scoutguard is taking close to 1500 pics a week on a lower than normal trigger setting. I just want to punch my computer from all the does lol.

We are not seeing as many 2 1/2 + yo bucks this year as we have been though. We have seen more and more each year from 2005 up till last summer. Last year, we had a TON of GOOD older bucks. I think the biggest reason for this shift is due to the habitat changes made recently. The last 2 years, there has been close to 170 acres thats been logged around us and some logging on our place. Some salt licks thats traditionally not had does there (hardly) ever, now, are doe only licks. I think what has happened is the does have completely taken over our place due to the habitat improvements for fawning. I just hope the bucks come back during the hunting season.

I'm not used to not being able to get good bucks during the summer months :( . The "change" came quicker than expected. Hopefully, those buck pics and/or kills will come this fall

You're right on the money JCDEERMAN. I'm seeing the same thing on my place. The northern half used to be unbroken hardwoods, and that's where I would normally get most of my summer-time buck pics. But now with all the logging on the northern section, all I get are doe, fawn and yearling buck pics there. The bucks have all been forced to the opposite end of the property.

Has your Northern end been a "better-than-before" place to hunt in the fall now that you logged? Did the bucks (in that specific area) move back in there in the fall, more than they did before you started logging there (when it was hardwoods)? If so, how long did that transition take?

I guess what I'm trying to say is...during the summer, it was pics galore of NICE bucks there. - During the fall, they were VERY hard to come by (probably werent there as much since 1/2 of them were in their fall range somewhere else). This being the 1st year we are not getting them here in the summer, will this year be the 1st fall that they "move in" there more than they have in the past. Or how many years will it take for them to be there roaming around in the fall?

I'm hoping you say the hunting will be better than before real soon because it's been pretty lame with hunting open hardwoods :) . Daylight mature deer movement has been NONE, more than the obvious "being nocturnal"

 

[JCDEERMAN]

Our numbers have been WAY up as well. I thought we had good fawn crop last year, but after looking at the fawn recruitment this year....WOW. I usually see maybe about 2 does each summer with 2 fawns a piece. Most just have 1 or none at all. This year is more close to 5 with twins a piece. It's good to know that the numbers are coming back and that the herd is pretty dang healthy (I believe the numbers are now in the norm, atleast where I am). I'm actually getting pretty frustrating looking at all the pics from trailcams. Even my Scoutguard is taking close to 1500 pics a week on a lower than normal trigger setting. I just want to punch my computer from all the does lol.

We are not seeing as many 2 1/2 + yo bucks this year as we have been though. We have seen more and more each year from 2005 up till last summer. Last year, we had a TON of GOOD older bucks. I think the biggest reason for this shift is due to the habitat changes made recently. The last 2 years, there has been close to 170 acres thats been logged around us and some logging on our place. Some salt licks thats traditionally not had does there (hardly) ever, now, are doe only licks. I think what has happened is the does have completely taken over our place due to the habitat improvements for fawning. I just hope the bucks come back during the hunting season.

I'm not used to not being able to get good bucks during the summer months :( . The "change" came quicker than expected. Hopefully, those buck pics and/or kills will come this fall

JC,
I think I am on the other end of Hickman Co. from you (I'm in the SW corner), but I'm seeing very similar things as you this year. Just about every doe has at least one fawn, and many with 2. I even saw one with 3 fawns in my back field this past weekend, but she may have picked one up whose mother was killed. This is a far cry from the past 3 summers, when it was actually rather uncommon to see fawns with every doe and I don't remember seeing any twins. My coyote population is really down this year, so I'm sure that helps a bunch with fawn recruitment.

We should be in the same area woodchuckc....we are in the SW corner near 4-Way. We are seeing the same thing with the fawns. As far as the coyotes go, I am still seeing just as many of them. Though, I always get tons of pics of coyotes, bobcats, and foxes.

I'm getting a good number of bucks also, and antler growth seems significantly greater per age group than the past few years. With the low timber prices, the closest significant amount of logging to me this past year has been about 2 miles away, so I don't think that is having a major impact on what I am seeing this summer.

I wouldnt think it would have as much of an effect. Our logging is going on on our place and all around us :crazy: . And from the decent bucks we do have pics of, the growth from last year is amazing!

 

[BSK]

Has your Northern end been a "better-than-before" place to hunt in the fall now that you logged? Did the bucks (in that specific area) move back in there in the fall, more than they did before you started logging there (when it was hardwoods)? If so, how long did that transition take?

I guess what I'm trying to say is...during the summer, it was pics galore of NICE bucks there. - During the fall, they were VERY hard to come by (probably werent there as much since 1/2 of them were in their fall range somewhere else). This being the 1st year we are not getting them here in the summer, will this year be the 1st fall that they "move in" there more than they have in the past. Or how many years will it take for them to be there roaming around in the fall?

I'm hoping you say the hunting will be better than before real soon because it's been pretty lame with hunting open hardwoods :) . Daylight mature deer movement has been NONE, more than the obvious "being nocturnal"

Bucks started to come back the first fall (but it was nowhere near the usual population), but I believe from past experience that the buck usage of the area during hunting season will continue to increase until it peaks 4-6 years after logging, when the regrowth is the best possible cover habitat.

 

[woodchuckc]

We should be in the same area woodchuckc....we are in the SW corner near 4-Way. We are seeing the same thing with the fawns. As far as the coyotes go, I am still seeing just as many of them. Though, I always get tons of pics of coyotes, bobcats, and foxes.

For some reason I thought you were up around Little Lot east of Centerville. If you are near 4-Way, that is the same area as Gil1's lease (it is the property on Hwy 48 right behind the store at the 4-Way that was hit hard by the tornado that came through Brushy 3 years ago).

Yeah, we are neighbors! I live between Pleasantville and the Mennonite community in Lobelville.

 

[UPSman]

I can say, I have seen more fawns this year than in the last few summers. I have seen numerous does with twins and a handful of does with triplets. Just today as I was driving around Douglas Lake, I had a doe with two fawns cross the road in front of me.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

We should be in the same area woodchuckc....we are in the SW corner near 4-Way. We are seeing the same thing with the fawns. As far as the coyotes go, I am still seeing just as many of them. Though, I always get tons of pics of coyotes, bobcats, and foxes.

For some reason I thought you were up around Little Lot east of Centerville. If you are near 4-Way, that is the same area as Gil1's lease (it is the property on Hwy 48 right behind the store at the 4-Way that was hit hard by the tornado that came through Brushy 3 years ago).

Yeah, we are neighbors! I live between Pleasantville and the Mennonite community in Lobelville.

Ok I gotcha. And for some reason, I thought you were out towards Columbia? :D . Yea we are in the Wades Branch / Milam Branch RD area off of E. Beaverdam. It's funny because by looking at your pics you posted, I see alot of the same characteristics as the deer in our area. One of them in particular is very similar.

 

[Football Hunter]

Just about every doe has at least one fawn, and many with 2. I even saw one with 3 fawns in my back field this past weekend, but she may have picked one up whose mother was killed. This is a far cry from the past 3 summers, when it was actually rather uncommon to see fawns with every doe and I don't remember seeing any twins.

The two years after the EHD outbreak it wasn't uncommon to see fawn recruitment rates as low as 20% (2 fawns for every 10 adult does). Last year it jumped up to around 60% and this year it is even better.

My coyote population is really down this year, so I'm sure that helps a bunch with fawn recruitment.

My coyote population really started to fall last year, and is very low this year.

Wonder what would make the coyote population fall?

 

[TJS209]

Just about every doe has at least one fawn, and many with 2. I even saw one with 3 fawns in my back field this past weekend, but she may have picked one up whose mother was killed. This is a far cry from the past 3 summers, when it was actually rather uncommon to see fawns with every doe and I don't remember seeing any twins.

The two years after the EHD outbreak it wasn't uncommon to see fawn recruitment rates as low as 20% (2 fawns for every 10 adult does). Last year it jumped up to around 60% and this year it is even better.

My coyote population is really down this year, so I'm sure that helps a bunch with fawn recruitment.

My coyote population really started to fall last year, and is very low this year.

Wonder what would make the coyote population fall?

I was wondering that too. We didn't see one coyote last year and we usually kill a few. Last year I remember seeing a lot of rabbits and someone told me that means coyotes are down (not sure if that's true).

 

[BSK]

Just about every doe has at least one fawn, and many with 2. I even saw one with 3 fawns in my back field this past weekend, but she may have picked one up whose mother was killed. This is a far cry from the past 3 summers, when it was actually rather uncommon to see fawns with every doe and I don't remember seeing any twins.

The two years after the EHD outbreak it wasn't uncommon to see fawn recruitment rates as low as 20% (2 fawns for every 10 adult does). Last year it jumped up to around 60% and this year it is even better.

My coyote population is really down this year, so I'm sure that helps a bunch with fawn recruitment.

My coyote population really started to fall last year, and is very low this year.

Wonder what would make the coyote population fall?

Coyote populations often display a similar patterns to rabbits, in that they display something close to the classic "J-shaped" population trend, slowly building, then exploding upwards, and finally crashing down. The crash is usually due to disease outbreaks, such as parvo, sweeping through the population.

 

[woodchuckc]

Wonder what would make the coyote population fall?

Well, it fell by 2 this past spring because they couldn't outrun 50 gr bullets from a 22-250 at 200 yards! :grin:

Seriously, coyote populations are pretty cyclical. Basically, in times of plenty the population increases (oftentimes pretty dramatically) and it can fall tremendously in lean times. Female coyotes will adjust the number of pups they have in their litters based on how healthy (well fed) they are - smaller litters or even no pups when food is scarce and larger ones when they are well fed. I have found that a pretty good barometer is the rabbit and possum numbers. When you see a lot of them, you generally have low coyote numbers but you can expect to see a big increase in the following couple of years (coyote populations lag behind the prey populations by a year or so). Conversely, low rabbit numbers generally means a high coyote population, but it will probably be taking a nosedive the following year.

And of course deer reproductive success factors in there too. For whatever reason, since the 2007 EHD epidemic (which really hammered the deer population in my area) fawn recruitment has been dismal until this year. Fewer fawns means fewer easy meals for coyotes.

 

[woodchuckc]

Just about every doe has at least one fawn, and many with 2. I even saw one with 3 fawns in my back field this past weekend, but she may have picked one up whose mother was killed. This is a far cry from the past 3 summers, when it was actually rather uncommon to see fawns with every doe and I don't remember seeing any twins.

The two years after the EHD outbreak it wasn't uncommon to see fawn recruitment rates as low as 20% (2 fawns for every 10 adult does). Last year it jumped up to around 60% and this year it is even better.

My coyote population is really down this year, so I'm sure that helps a bunch with fawn recruitment.

My coyote population really started to fall last year, and is very low this year.

Wonder what would make the coyote population fall?

Coyote populations often display a similar patterns to rabbits, in that they display something close to the classic "J-shaped" population trend, slowly building, then exploding upwards, and finally crashing down. The crash is usually due to disease outbreaks, such as parvo, sweeping through the population.

Yeah, what he said too! :grin: I forgot to include the disease factor in the equation.