Deerbuster1996
Well-Known Member
Have you thought about the fawn crops growing in recent years. I know I have been getting more pictures of fawns each year. That could be a reason for yearling numbers having a increase.
2015 vs 2016 To Date: Current Harvest (GRAPHED)
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lightsareout
Well-Known Member
Very interesting, I would like to see the year end results and maybe include another year or 2 back for more data comparison
It may or may not have anything to do with a buck limit reduction, that point is useless to argue on this forum anymore.
However, your graph is interesting. Some people say lack of acorns, some say weather, some say license increase, some even say herd numbers are down. Who the heck knows.
I think the tell tale graph will be one that highlights the next three years and compares it to the previous few years. Maybe we can draw a conclusion as to why (assuming the trend follows your graph) and do something about it if need be.
Cool graph non the less.
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However, your graph is interesting. Some people say lack of acorns, some say weather, some say license increase, some even say herd numbers are down. Who the heck knows.
I think the tell tale graph will be one that highlights the next three years and compares it to the previous few years. Maybe we can draw a conclusion as to why (assuming the trend follows your graph) and do something about it if need be.
Cool graph non the less.
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I also wonder how much lack of interest affects those numbers. I think we are on the tail end of the hunting boom myself. The hunting is cool/interesting bubble has busted. I may be completely wrong, but I think there are less people interested which also leads to some decline in numbers.
southernhunter
Well-Known Member
Wonder how many small bucks may not be getting reported ?
catman529
Well-Known Member
My numbers are down cause I haven't been able to hunt as much, particularly in mornings. I'm hoping for another doe tomorrow or Wednesday evening and then buck only until December.
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redhunterZ71
Well-Known Member
Somebody needs to go look at last 5 or 6 years and see what the difference was from year to year. I bet some years were lower than others for some unknown reasons. Can somebody pull these numbers up?
Any speculation on a drop in buck harvest a few weeks into season is misleading. Even when the season is over, if buck harvest is down, it would be hard to draw a conclusion that it was due to a 2-buck limit. Considering the small percentage of people that ever kill more than one, lowering the buck limit may not even matter. It may mean that with the supposed surplus of bucks that are running around, the people that normally do not tag one will have the opportunity to do so this year. The percentage of successful licensed hunters could go up without an increase in buck harvest.
swhackmaster
Well-Known Member
Weather has played a major factor imo
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AXL78":fh5gp3ik said:
Excellent point.
UTGrad
Well-Known Member
I'd be more interested in the data over 3 years vs a year over year trend. Especially since we are just mid way through the season. A strong cold snap during 2nd week of muzzleloader through rifle could make a spike in harvest numbers IMO.
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Interesting...Thanks for posting this. Will you be doing updates to the graph from time to time? I would especially be interested in seeing the update after the two weeks of muzzleloader.
megalomaniac
Well-Known Member
I don't think it is at all unreasonable to conclude that the 2 buck limit is directly correlated to the reduction in number of bucks killed during archery... if it were the 'weather', 'higher license prices', 'fewer hunters', etc, the doe kill would have dropped as well.
I suspect that the decline during archery season will be made up by ML and Gun, however... as people get closer to the end of season and the liklihood of the 2nd tag going unfilled and burning a hole in the pocket of the average hunter begins to weigh heavily.
My prediction is that our buck kill will end up around 10% less this year. A significant drop, but not as significant as many think it will be.
I suspect that the decline during archery season will be made up by ML and Gun, however... as people get closer to the end of season and the liklihood of the 2nd tag going unfilled and burning a hole in the pocket of the average hunter begins to weigh heavily.
My prediction is that our buck kill will end up around 10% less this year. A significant drop, but not as significant as many think it will be.
You would have to have a doctorate in psychology to know that, and even then that theory doesn't pertain to everyone. It is statistically impossible to conclusively prove a 2 buck limit will save any measurable amount of deer just based on previous years numbers.
tree_ghost
Well-Known Member
I tend to agree with this postmegalomaniac":1l8sj4a4 said:
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That is really kind of my point. By your own harvest numbers, statistically, the twra saved 0 bucks lives by you when they lowered the limit. I don't mean that offensively, really I don't. But you have no affect on the 3 buck limit. It could change mindset, but you can't statistically measure that. Who's to say that can't change without a limit change. It can't be numerically proven, certainly not in a few weeks.
It could also be argued that in the rare cases with people who can kill at will, they will be responsible for more bucks. They tag out quicker, and are no longer worried about themselves, and now have the freedom to put more people on bucks, which I see people do. The people who never killed 2, now have a larger amount of bucks roaming, and suddenly are able to kill 2, and the off/on people have more opportunities and kill more consistently. I just see no significant increase/decrease in the buck population, and any differentiation can not be attributable to limits. Maybe mindset, but you have to ask yourself if limit changed mindset, and does a limit that affected such a minute percent of the hunters have to invoked on a vast majority to do this. It won't accomplish anything extreme.
matt15
Member
I have never been for lowering the buck tags but of course fewer bucks are going to get killed with one less tag. Everyone I hunt with is going to be much pickier this year because we don't want to be down to our last buck tag
People might become pickier, I agree, but that doesn't necessarily equate to less bucks being killed. It just means there will be more inches of antler killed. The amount of people who choose to eat a tag I don't think is significant. Not many kill multiple. And as I said, I think that could be offset. Also, take into consideration you are talking about diehards (very small percentage of hunter population). Your regular hunters, they could care less.
Matador
Well-Known Member
Weather, weather and more wet weather on the weekend when most hunters can hunt. A lot of archery hunters will not hunt in the rain. I think Mz and big gun will catch the harvest up. I think most all average hunters ( not tndeer. fanantics) will shoot the first buck they see. After all most don't kill more than one buck anyway but they will still have a buck tag left just in case. I don't think many tn.deer members understand just how few days the average hunter gets to hunt. The average Hunter just happens to make up the great majority of all hunters.
megalomaniac
Well-Known Member
Matador":gnxykdyr said:
Again, it's not the 'weather'. If it were, there would have been a proportionate decline in doe harvests during archery to correspond with the decline in bucks. People who sit at home during rain don't shoot bucks... but they don't shoot does either.
PillsburyDoughboy
Well-Known Member
Matador":uljdkvvi said:
Great point about getting to hunt.
I hear it from so many people. Football and sports seem to be a priority in many people's lives to the point they don't want to miss a single game so many of them will just hunt opening weekend or opening day and maybe one other day if that. Then there is the opening weekend till thanksgiving crowd that seem to get busy with the "holidays" and family excuse. Some people just get busy with work schedules ,,especially those in retail.
I know about mid Dec for the most part I'm slowing down hunting, I might hunt one day of the weekend but have a lot of family stuff and Christmas parties and stuff going on.. Plus it never seems to fail I usually get sick from being out in the elements so much I am done.
I will hunt a few days after Christmas with my son and a few days after the New Years,, a special hog hunt at Catoosa for hogs in Jan. And that's it.
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Land Between the Lakes
Well-Known Member
I think the new 2 buck limit may change things slightly. I think it may change some peoples choices.
For example if a hunter takes a buck in late September, or early October now they can only take 1 more buck for the entire rest of the TN season. So because of this they may choose to pass on more bucks in order to be able to buck hunt during the November rut.
Previously under the 3 buck rule a hunter could take a buck in September or early October, then still be able to potentially take 2 more bucks after that. So they may not have been as selective on their second buck as they might choose to be now in my opinion.
Also this could effect hunting pressure in some areas. For example if a hunter takes a buck in September or early October, they may choose to NOT hunt much until the November rut starts. They may do this because they don't want to tag out before the November rut.
Also if a hunter ends up taking their 2 bucks for the season in September or October, now they are done buck hunting in Tennessee. So they may hunt much less which leads to much less hunting pressure where they hunt.
For example if a hunter takes a buck in late September, or early October now they can only take 1 more buck for the entire rest of the TN season. So because of this they may choose to pass on more bucks in order to be able to buck hunt during the November rut.
Previously under the 3 buck rule a hunter could take a buck in September or early October, then still be able to potentially take 2 more bucks after that. So they may not have been as selective on their second buck as they might choose to be now in my opinion.
Also this could effect hunting pressure in some areas. For example if a hunter takes a buck in September or early October, they may choose to NOT hunt much until the November rut starts. They may do this because they don't want to tag out before the November rut.
Also if a hunter ends up taking their 2 bucks for the season in September or October, now they are done buck hunting in Tennessee. So they may hunt much less which leads to much less hunting pressure where they hunt.
Winchester
Well-Known Member
:roll:
hcdeerman
Well-Known Member
I'm still trying to grasp the LACK of acorn argument. We have TOO MANY acorns this season, spreading the deer out and making them harder to kill because you can't really key in on one area.
