TWRA study update

I've not had the chance to watch but I thought it's worth posting for others that do not follow the TWRA channel.


https://youtu.be/uJtiiWezuhU


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Re: TWRA study update

ty for the link.

A quick summary, no need to watch it, not really any information....

Too early to release any conclusions.
There is a decline in turkey populations in southern middle TN, but the rest of the state is just fine
The decline is probably just a levelling off of populations after reintroduction according to the turkey coordinator.
There was a terrible statewide hatch last year, don't expect to see many jakes this spring.

I'm really happy the new grad student/ phd student is focusing on nest initiation (and nest predation). Hopefully she will admit nest initiation is much later than what the state accounts for when setting season opening. And certainly nest predation is MUCH higher than what anyone expects.

Re: TWRA study update

"Rest of the state is just fine"

I guess this is the new normal now, oh well.



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Re: TWRA study update

megalomaniac":wlw08kzb said:

ty for the link.

A quick summary, no need to watch it, not really any information....

Too early to release any conclusions.
There is a decline in turkey populations in southern middle TN, but the rest of the state is just fine
The decline is probably just a levelling off of populations after reintroduction according to the turkey coordinator.
There was a terrible statewide hatch last year, don't expect to see many jakes this spring.

I'm really happy the new grad student/ phd student is focusing on nest initiation (and nest predation). Hopefully she will admit nest initiation is much later than what the state accounts for when setting season opening. And certainly nest predation is MUCH higher than what anyone expects.

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Thanks for saving me some time! Populations in Lawrence County are not what they once were.

We have never had birds on our farm and there should be some there. They walk down neighborhoods in Johnson City and I saw a bird in a parking lot across from the Braves stadium last fall. I think unleashed dogs, and an out of control varmit population mixed with all the chicken houses are intertwined with blame.

Re: TWRA study update

Rest of the state is just fine? These people have no clue if that's what they think.


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I know we have way less birds than we did 10 years ago. Will it get better, I don't know......

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Guess this new guy is going to pursue the route of this is the new normal in turkey populations.. I'm not really a fan of that. Hoped to see a more proactive approach.

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Get over it, some of us warned yall 10 years ago, and it was mocked, and laughed at.

Re: TWRA study update

BULL MOOSE":10if38rk said:

Thanks for saving me some time! Populations in Lawrence County are not what they once were.

We have never had birds on our farm and there should be some there. They walk down neighborhoods in Johnson City and I saw a bird in a parking lot across from the Braves stadium last fall. I think unleashed dogs, and an out of control varmit population mixed with all the chicken houses are intertwined with blame.

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Same with SW Lincoln county.

Re: TWRA study update

Just listened to the podcast on the way home from work yesterday.

I am curious about some of the negative takes on it? I thought it was interesting and a bit encouraging. Nothing too ground breaking for a 20 minute podcast.

I will say I have very, very little experience turkey hunting in TN. Tagged along with my uncle on a few hunts in east TN. I am looking forward to hunting in TN myself this season though.
Again, this is a genuine curiosity from me towards you all that know what's going on. I felt that over 1 million dollars, and 6 years to do a comprehensive study in such a targeted area of 5 counties is about all you could ask. It seemed to me they had an interest in actually finding out what is the problem. Perhaps it is several years too late or you all may know better than I that TWRA already has their mind made up? Again, it didn't quite come across that way to me. We have seen our kill numbers drop off a bit here in KY the last few years and we have been told that it was a leveling off of the population as things settle into what the landscape can carry. There are small pockets where I hear bird numbers dropping but on the whole I haven't noticed enough where I hunt to think it is anything other than a plateau that happens when species are introduced.

I am hopeful they get some good data on these turkeys in general that can be shared with other states. Waterfowl researchers are making use of newer telemetry studies now and I think on the whole these studies can provide some valuable insights to game managers in our parts of the world.

Interested to hear more about what you all think is going on-

Re: TWRA study update

Rockhound":ln66myyn said:

Get over it, some of us warned yall 10 years ago, and it was mocked, and laughed at.

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Sad but true.


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Re: TWRA study update

Displaced_Vol":b8p1d1n3 said:

Interested to hear more about what you all think is going on-

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There has been a perfect storm brewing with TN turkey populations for a couple decades. The primary problem IMO is that we are opening season too early... not allowing hens to be bred before gobblers are removed.

What is fact is that there are fewer adult hens successfully initiating a nest and many fewer adult hens actually successfully hatching a nest if initiated.

Again, speculation on my part, is the reason fewer hens are hatching poults is due to a combination of increase of nest predators (fewer racoon and coyote trapping due to fur prices falling through the floor), removal of too many males in the earliest week if the season prior to breeding (half of the seasons harvest is in the first 10d of the 6 week season), and loss of too many of the adult population due to adaption of coyotes on their learning how to effectively predate adult birds and an increase number of hunters who are more effective at killing adult and juvenile males (due to decoys, longer effective ranges of shotguns, and a desire to post kill pics on FB).

Obvious factors such as weather conditions play a huge role in survival of poults, but that cannot be controlled, and is only a contributing factor to the overall decline in populations.

I do not subscribe to the theory that turkeys were overpopulated and are just returning to normal levels of populations, as turkey reproduction is totally different from mammals and they do not have a social carrying capacity or a biological carrying capacity. It is possible to have too many deer, but virtually impossible to have too many turkeys.

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I don't have much use for today's TWRA, but those from the past, who set the season date's, got it right in SE Tn mountains. Population holding strong here. Seems like "CWD" has crept into the Turkey Hunting scene regarding the rest of the state. Chronic Whining Disease oke:

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I wish they would start considering the previous springs weather prior to setting the seasons and limits instead of having a set date to open. It seams like TWRA refuses to make changes in the season from year to year. Even if they set the spring season every January at least they could consider how many poults were seen and how many may have survived due to floods, late cold spells etc.. It seems as though they only print a hunting guide any more instead of manage.

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I am anxious to see the end result of the study. I do believe in some parts of the state the turkey population has declined but in other parts as cowhunter 71 pointed out that the population is thriving. Why? I do not know but last year as I called because the toolbox was acting up to get the latest kill numbers a biologist gets on the phone with me and explains the population explosion of turkey when being introduced and then the leveling off effect after a certain amount of time. That would seem to cover some of the issue in some areas but not perhaps all of it. Let's just look at TN. I do believe the 2018 season was one of the few in modern history that the kill fell below 30,000. People were in a panic pointing to a later start date , 2 bird limit, no hunting of the evening, two week season .Several people pointed to Missouri as the king of the proper way to manage turkey as lots of these items listed are part of the standard season for them. So I started looking at the numbers in 2004 Missouri had a kill total of 60,744 birds! I thought man this is the ticket! 2016 48,374, 2018 35,784. What? Missouri resource scientist Jason Isabelle " population explode but then start to decline once they hit environmental resistance until they reach numbers that are more sustainable for the long run". " We went through a similar situation in the late 2000 s , but we came out of that and I expect we will come out of this too as long as we get some good hatches". This article is from Game and Fish magazine and you can Google and read and see the numbers if you like. Missouri Turkey hunting outlook 2019 is the title. My point is what is the answer? Just think if our kill went to basically half like Missouri has had. They are doing all the above and certainly have a great reputation. TN it seems to me has remained pretty stable over the last several years. Mega is right poult production is key no matter what state you live in and so many things will have an effect on that. I hope TN has another productive season and things continue to move like the 2019 season in an upward trend .This topic will be debated on here as it always is because so many are truly concerned about the turkey hunting in this state. There are a ton of knowledgeable people in here to learn from ! Again I hope we have a great season and I will just wait for the end result of the survey to see what direction they move in. Turkey hunting is not just hobby for me it is an April to mid May obsession, so I hope all goes well and we work together to make sure it's a resource to enjoy years from now!

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I don't think the birds were overpopulated either.

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Several good posts here thank you all for weighing in & providing some more insight.
I look forward to the results also because like I mentioned it "seems" as though it is going to be very thorough. Hopefully some things will be learned and can be applied to this situation directly but maybe also give blue print for the future.

One interesting point in was not aware of from megalomaniac's post was the fact that there is no social or biological carrying capacity for turkey. I did not know that and just assumed, much like deer, that once you had "too many" they would start to suffer and populations would drop some.

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I'm kind of like mega here. I find it hard to believe that turkeys reach a "saturation" point and then numbers begin to decline. I just don't follow that logic. Having more birds leads to less nesting? Having more birds leads to infertile eggs? I'm more inclined to believe that hens becoming legal targets, the limits raised on gobblers, the timing of the spring seasons, and the explosion of predators all contributed to the decline in numbers. I also lean towards TWRA taking reactive rather than a proactive approach to the problem in affected areas. I think there's a difference in "hunter observation" reports in deer and turkey. Turkeys keep the same hours as humans but I tend to believe that TWRA links those two observations and thus, shrugs off the reports of declining numbers of birds in certain areas. I understand it takes trending to sometimes realize that fact but when that time frame takes so long that a major problem has already taken a foothold maybe it's time to re-examine the way you do things.

Re: TWRA study update

Mike Belt":yb4hmslu said:

I'm kind of like mega here. I find it hard to believe that turkeys reach a "saturation" point and then numbers begin to decline. I just don't follow that logic. Having more birds leads to less nesting? Having more birds leads to infertile eggs? I'm more inclined to believe that hens becoming legal targets, the limits raised on gobblers, the timing of the spring seasons, and the explosion of predators all contributed to the decline in numbers. I also lean towards TWRA taking reactive rather than a proactive approach to the problem in affected areas. I think there's a difference in "hunter observation" reports in deer and turkey. Turkeys keep the same hours as humans but I tend to believe that TWRA links those two observations and thus, shrugs off the reports of declining numbers of birds in certain areas. I understand it takes trending to sometimes realize that fact but when that time frame takes so long that a major problem has already taken a foothold maybe it's time to re-examine the way you do things.

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Very well said. They need to start listening to the people who buy the licenses. If they say shorten the season and lower the limit because of personal observation that is pretty strong conservation advice when they are the ones spending the money.

Re: TWRA study update

tnanh":1nh04fz1 said:

Mike Belt":1nh04fz1 said:

I'm kind of like mega here. I find it hard to believe that turkeys reach a "saturation" point and then numbers begin to decline. I just don't follow that logic. Having more birds leads to less nesting? Having more birds leads to infertile eggs? I'm more inclined to believe that hens becoming legal targets, the limits raised on gobblers, the timing of the spring seasons, and the explosion of predators all contributed to the decline in numbers. I also lean towards TWRA taking reactive rather than a proactive approach to the problem in affected areas. I think there's a difference in "hunter observation" reports in deer and turkey. Turkeys keep the same hours as humans but I tend to believe that TWRA links those two observations and thus, shrugs off the reports of declining numbers of birds in certain areas. I understand it takes trending to sometimes realize that fact but when that time frame takes so long that a major problem has already taken a foothold maybe it's time to re-examine the way you do things.

Click to expand...

Very well said. They need to start listening to the people who buy the licenses. If they say shorten the season and lower the limit because of personal observation that is pretty strong conservation advice when they are the ones spending the money.

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Absolutely agree with all of this