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<blockquote data-quote="Mescalero" data-source="post: 5379620" data-attributes="member: 21439"><p>So, to get back to the original purpose of the post, but you guys feel free to turn it into whatever you want to turn it into.</p><p></p><p>USC and UCLA are joining the Big Ten (2024) about a year after Oklahoma and Texas announced they are joining the SEC (2025, if not sooner). I think it's clear there will be only two power conferences in a few years - B1G and SEC. Whatever remains or doesn't of the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12 will be equivalent to today's G5. Notre Dame will be forced to join a conference. Their media deal with NBC is expiring after the 2025 season (and given how the B1G and the SEC will look, NBC isn't going to renew it), but ND brings a lot of eyeballs. I just don't see them joining the SEC. ND joins the B1G next. I just don't see either conference having more than 24 schools. This is all being driven by media.</p><p></p><p>Currently, and including the moves of OU, UT, UCLA, and USC, the B1G and the SEC can claim control of 8 of the top 10 Designated Market Areas (DMAs). The only ones up for grabs are #6 San Francisco/Oakland and #10 Boston. If the B1G gets ND, it will get a good chunk of Boston (and further solidify its hold on #1 NYC. Wouldn't mind Stanford joining the B1G (and ND might insist on that) and who cares about Cal, but both would bring SFO to the B1G without question. </p><p></p><p>When one goes through the top 50 DMAs, its clear how this turns out in the B1G's and the SEC's favor (and already has) and why there are only a handful of other schools worthy of joining either conference (think eyeballs not football programs because football only matters if people, and a lot of them, are watching it). With their new conference members, B1G will control 17.5 top 50 DMAs and SEC will control 13.5 (I have them splitting St. Louis). ACC controls 8, Pac 12 controls 7, and Big 12 only 2. Clemson doesn't move the needle at all just as ND will get you Boston, not BC. </p><p></p><p>In my opinion, these are the only remaining schools that matter: Cal, Stanford, Arizona State, Washington, FSU, Colorado, Miami, Oregon, UNC. Maybe Utah (Salt lake City), Virginia, Va Tech. I think it will be hard for either conference to justify going to 24 schools. Might end at 20 each. </p><p></p><p>To the B1G (after ND): Stanford, Washington, Oregon (unless Cal needed for SFO).</p><p></p><p>To the SEC: FSU, Miami, Arizona State, Arizona (ASU alone won't get the SEC Phoenix).</p><p></p><p>There could be a war over UNC. </p><p></p><p> <a href="https://oaaa.org/Portals/0/Public%20PDFs/OAAA%202021%20NIELSEN%20DMA%20Rankings%20Report.pdf" target="_blank">https://oaaa.org/Portals/0/Public PDFs/OAAA 2021 NIELSEN DMA Rankings Report.pdf</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mescalero, post: 5379620, member: 21439"] So, to get back to the original purpose of the post, but you guys feel free to turn it into whatever you want to turn it into. USC and UCLA are joining the Big Ten (2024) about a year after Oklahoma and Texas announced they are joining the SEC (2025, if not sooner). I think it's clear there will be only two power conferences in a few years - B1G and SEC. Whatever remains or doesn't of the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12 will be equivalent to today's G5. Notre Dame will be forced to join a conference. Their media deal with NBC is expiring after the 2025 season (and given how the B1G and the SEC will look, NBC isn't going to renew it), but ND brings a lot of eyeballs. I just don't see them joining the SEC. ND joins the B1G next. I just don't see either conference having more than 24 schools. This is all being driven by media. Currently, and including the moves of OU, UT, UCLA, and USC, the B1G and the SEC can claim control of 8 of the top 10 Designated Market Areas (DMAs). The only ones up for grabs are #6 San Francisco/Oakland and #10 Boston. If the B1G gets ND, it will get a good chunk of Boston (and further solidify its hold on #1 NYC. Wouldn't mind Stanford joining the B1G (and ND might insist on that) and who cares about Cal, but both would bring SFO to the B1G without question. When one goes through the top 50 DMAs, its clear how this turns out in the B1G's and the SEC's favor (and already has) and why there are only a handful of other schools worthy of joining either conference (think eyeballs not football programs because football only matters if people, and a lot of them, are watching it). With their new conference members, B1G will control 17.5 top 50 DMAs and SEC will control 13.5 (I have them splitting St. Louis). ACC controls 8, Pac 12 controls 7, and Big 12 only 2. Clemson doesn't move the needle at all just as ND will get you Boston, not BC. In my opinion, these are the only remaining schools that matter: Cal, Stanford, Arizona State, Washington, FSU, Colorado, Miami, Oregon, UNC. Maybe Utah (Salt lake City), Virginia, Va Tech. I think it will be hard for either conference to justify going to 24 schools. Might end at 20 each. To the B1G (after ND): Stanford, Washington, Oregon (unless Cal needed for SFO). To the SEC: FSU, Miami, Arizona State, Arizona (ASU alone won't get the SEC Phoenix). There could be a war over UNC. [URL]https://oaaa.org/Portals/0/Public%20PDFs/OAAA%202021%20NIELSEN%20DMA%20Rankings%20Report.pdf[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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