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Tennessee Hunting Forums
Quality Deer Management
Natural Non- Hrvest mortality rates?
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<blockquote data-quote="BSK" data-source="post: 3635690" data-attributes="member: 17"><p>And there's the problem BHC. The difference between reality and theory, or using large-scale statistics to try and calculate reality in a small area. In fact, that's one of my problems with they way the photo census process is promoted. It is promoted as being able to produce accurate deer density figures for the censused area. Well I hate to tell hunters/managers this, but unless they're censusing an area of 40,000 to 50,000 acres, those density numbers are virtually meaningless for anything other than a trend indicator over time. Because deer move around daily, seasonally, and annually, the numbers generated from any property less than 10 miles across are going to be significantly inflated above reality. And the longer the census is run, the greater the inflation, as some already censused deer move off the study area and new ones move on.</p><p></p><p>The same goes for calculating mortality rates, both hunting and natural. Unless you are working with MASSIVE areas, bucks will be killed beyond the boundaries of the managed property. Even in the sited study, where study properties averaged over 12,000 acres, more than half of the harvest of some buck age-classes occurred OFF the study properties. Now think about the average hunter/manager trying to calculate buck loss rates for a 1,000 acre property? ALL of the bucks using that property probably also use surrounding properties, where they can be harvested.</p><p></p><p>Instead of trying to work out the population, harvest, and survival figures for a particular property using study numbers, here's what I recommend: collect real numbers for your property. Collect them for at least 3 years. Are the trends changing or remaining the same? Every property is going to be different, so only the REAL numbers matter.</p><p></p><p>And by "REAL" numbers, I mean the number of unique bucks in each age-class that use the property during the hunting season. In addition, calculate the buck age structure from those numbers. The questions to answer from that data are: 1) Is the percent of the buck population in each age-class changing over time? Is the number of bucks in each age-class changing? THOSE numbers will tell you what your real-world survival rate is in THAT area under THOSE local conditions (which includes all forms of mortality).</p><p></p><p>When you have this data for a number of years, you may find that your local conditions are not at all sensitive to what bucks are harvested from the property. On the other hand, you might find out that your local situation is HIGHLY sensitive to what bucks are harvested from the property each year. But the only way to know is to collect REAL data for THAT location.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BSK, post: 3635690, member: 17"] And there's the problem BHC. The difference between reality and theory, or using large-scale statistics to try and calculate reality in a small area. In fact, that's one of my problems with they way the photo census process is promoted. It is promoted as being able to produce accurate deer density figures for the censused area. Well I hate to tell hunters/managers this, but unless they're censusing an area of 40,000 to 50,000 acres, those density numbers are virtually meaningless for anything other than a trend indicator over time. Because deer move around daily, seasonally, and annually, the numbers generated from any property less than 10 miles across are going to be significantly inflated above reality. And the longer the census is run, the greater the inflation, as some already censused deer move off the study area and new ones move on. The same goes for calculating mortality rates, both hunting and natural. Unless you are working with MASSIVE areas, bucks will be killed beyond the boundaries of the managed property. Even in the sited study, where study properties averaged over 12,000 acres, more than half of the harvest of some buck age-classes occurred OFF the study properties. Now think about the average hunter/manager trying to calculate buck loss rates for a 1,000 acre property? ALL of the bucks using that property probably also use surrounding properties, where they can be harvested. Instead of trying to work out the population, harvest, and survival figures for a particular property using study numbers, here's what I recommend: collect real numbers for your property. Collect them for at least 3 years. Are the trends changing or remaining the same? Every property is going to be different, so only the REAL numbers matter. And by "REAL" numbers, I mean the number of unique bucks in each age-class that use the property during the hunting season. In addition, calculate the buck age structure from those numbers. The questions to answer from that data are: 1) Is the percent of the buck population in each age-class changing over time? Is the number of bucks in each age-class changing? THOSE numbers will tell you what your real-world survival rate is in THAT area under THOSE local conditions (which includes all forms of mortality). When you have this data for a number of years, you may find that your local conditions are not at all sensitive to what bucks are harvested from the property. On the other hand, you might find out that your local situation is HIGHLY sensitive to what bucks are harvested from the property each year. But the only way to know is to collect REAL data for THAT location. [/QUOTE]
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Natural Non- Hrvest mortality rates?
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