Not that I know anything about weather or predicting it but I watch "Ryan Hall,Y'all" on YouTube and he "sounds" legit but no idea if he actually is. With all that out of the way. Any of y'all that duck hunt can look up his channel and see what kind of weather he's predicting up north and the amount of snow and cold air coming soon and see if it has any affect on pushing ducks down. I use to duck hunt like a madman but East Tennessee ruined me of that and traveling for "duck hunting weather" got old.
Future duck migration weather?
- Thread starter Hduke86
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Displaced_Vol
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I watch Ryan hall all the time. He's kind of goofy but I like him. He's from KY
Smashdn
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He no longer does it because he doesn't have to if you apply the formula, but search "Weekly Duck Migration Forecast" on youtube and listen to those.
For the near future, watch the storm system moving out of the northwest and the associated dip in the jet stream. There is some sort of high pressure ridge or stalled front currently over us and projected to stay over us even as this next system moves in. The snow/rain line is projected to be in mid Iowa maybe the Missouri/Iowa border. It does not look cold enough to lock anything up substantially and no snow down into Missouri. I don't think it will trigger a strong movement (I don't even want to use the word migration) of birds from out of Missouri down into KY, TN and Arkansas. Furthermore, Missouri is getting rain just as we are. The ten day forecast for Columbia, MO has no days highs below freezing.
Not saying there may not be some new birds push in but if your area is like mine is currently there is plenty of sheet water in fields for them to go to. I hope I am wrong or the weather people are wrong and this front dips lower or is just stronger. Dec 21 is a key date.
For the near future, watch the storm system moving out of the northwest and the associated dip in the jet stream. There is some sort of high pressure ridge or stalled front currently over us and projected to stay over us even as this next system moves in. The snow/rain line is projected to be in mid Iowa maybe the Missouri/Iowa border. It does not look cold enough to lock anything up substantially and no snow down into Missouri. I don't think it will trigger a strong movement (I don't even want to use the word migration) of birds from out of Missouri down into KY, TN and Arkansas. Furthermore, Missouri is getting rain just as we are. The ten day forecast for Columbia, MO has no days highs below freezing.
Not saying there may not be some new birds push in but if your area is like mine is currently there is plenty of sheet water in fields for them to go to. I hope I am wrong or the weather people are wrong and this front dips lower or is just stronger. Dec 21 is a key date.
Bgoodman30
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Spot on I would say. I think we will get a small trickle of ducks until the typical new years push.. This could all change if it keeps raining and rivers get out then more fowl will certainly show up.
Yea depending on how things shape up that week of Christmas could possibly be a noticeable improvement in flights
BSK
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Only thing I see that looks like "duck weather" is out around Friday Dec. 16th. Canadian Model has snow showers across TN that day.
Bgoodman30
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Those weatherman bastards like to tease us with snow past the 10 day and then suddenly taketh away...
I swear they do it just to drive traffic to website, app...
BSK
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Yeah, anything beyond 7 days in a model I consider highly suspicious.
Displaced_Vol
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You could send questions in via email and he would answer one each video. Couple years ago he read mine during the video….pretty slow that year, that may have been the highlight of my season.
Smashdn
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He read one of mine too. I dont even remember what I asked him.
Boils down to not real earth shattering logic. Ducks that feed almost exclusively on little seeds and stuff you find in swamps, and smaller bodied ducks, get out relatively quick as just ice prevents them from feeding. Bigger bodied ducks that can find food in slightly deeper water, that is less prone to freezing, or that can dry feed and just need water to drink and roost, hang around longer.
Make the food inaccessible and they have to move. Rule of thumb a bio told me for mallards was 6" of snow for three days was what it takes to make food completely inaccessible for them. Keep in mind even then you will have warm water springs and discharges and maybe wind-blown areas where food is not covered, or feed lots, etc. and they can hang in there tough.
Boils down to not real earth shattering logic. Ducks that feed almost exclusively on little seeds and stuff you find in swamps, and smaller bodied ducks, get out relatively quick as just ice prevents them from feeding. Bigger bodied ducks that can find food in slightly deeper water, that is less prone to freezing, or that can dry feed and just need water to drink and roost, hang around longer.
Make the food inaccessible and they have to move. Rule of thumb a bio told me for mallards was 6" of snow for three days was what it takes to make food completely inaccessible for them. Keep in mind even then you will have warm water springs and discharges and maybe wind-blown areas where food is not covered, or feed lots, etc. and they can hang in there tough.
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Bgoodman30
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I check the weather around habitat flats in North Missouri when they freeze up hard is usually when we can start seeing some birds.
BSK
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Looking at some extremely cold temperatures moving into northern and central Missouri mid-week next week (Wednesday/Thursday). Single digits at night, teens during the day. Most models also suggesting snow for KY and northern half of TN Friday before Christmas.
Smashdn
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I watch around St. Charles, MO. Lots of clubs there where the Missouri hits the Miss. IF that will freeze and the Missouri gets chunk ice or better yet froze solid it will push mallards.
Still kind of dry even with the rains. That slash water will freeze unless there is some current or big wind hitting it.
Still kind of dry even with the rains. That slash water will freeze unless there is some current or big wind hitting it.
Bgoodman30
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Some new ducks already trickling in. Should start getting good. The thaw will be even better.
Does that mean the ducks fly when the sun's out and then the eagles steal them after you shoot them?
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Geese yesterday, ducks today showing up in large numbers in North Mississippi Delta. We have been killing ducks but it has been spotty which is normal until around the 15th of December. Should be really good the week after Christmas. It's always nice being near the bottom of the flyaway when a major freeze happens up North of us. Good hunting to everyone.
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