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BSK: Reasonable expectations
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<blockquote data-quote="BSK" data-source="post: 3937901" data-attributes="member: 17"><p>Discussing the number of mature bucks in a given area is such a difficult prospect. Such a huge "disconnect" exists between the numbers most of us hear about--such as deer per square mile--and what hunters will see or those running trail-cameras will photograph on a given property. And much of that discrepancy comes from the fact that deer can move around so much over time. For example, in an area with an AVERAGE deer density of around 25 deer per square mile, with common (for TN) population dynamics of an adult sex ratio of 1.5 adult females per male, and a fawn recruitment rate of 60%, in a square mile area (640 acres) there would be about 7 bucks, 11 does and 7 fawns AT ANY ONE MOMENT IN TIME. However, again, that's just a snapshot in time. Deer move around daily, weekly, monthly, seasonally, etc. One day the property could have 20 deer and the next day 40 deer, depending on food sources, hunting activity, habitat quality, etc. Adding up all these daily, weekly, seasonal movements may mean that MANY more deer use the property over the course of a hunting season than just the calculated 25. Deer using that 1 square mile also use all surrounding square miles and vice versa. Because of large individual deer ranges, and daily/seasonal movements, over the course of a hunting season, I find it very common for properties of this size to see 4-6 times the number of unique deer using the property than the deer density suggests. For example, the density suggest only 7 unique bucks should be on the property. But over the course of an entire hunting season, I would not be surprised to see trail-cameras pick up 30-40 unique bucks using the property at some point. And if we're assuming the area has a very good buck age structure, around 10% of those bucks will be mature, which means of the 30-40 unique bucks, 3 or 4 are mature. And interestingly enough, cut the size of the property down and you don't really lose a lot of those bucks--because buck ranges are so large, especially during the rut. At the same time, hunters have to realize that nearly every mature buck they photograph on their property is most likely being shared with many other surrounding landowners--potentially every one for miles around.</p><p></p><p>So looking at the raw numbers, in a 25 deer per square mile area, even with good dynamics you're only looking at about 0.7 mature bucks per square mile. A 100 acre property is really out of luck at only 0.1 mature bucks. However, the reality of the situation--large ranges, and daily/seasonal deer movements--may actually bring a couple of mature bucks across a 100 acre property during a given deer season.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BSK, post: 3937901, member: 17"] Discussing the number of mature bucks in a given area is such a difficult prospect. Such a huge "disconnect" exists between the numbers most of us hear about--such as deer per square mile--and what hunters will see or those running trail-cameras will photograph on a given property. And much of that discrepancy comes from the fact that deer can move around so much over time. For example, in an area with an AVERAGE deer density of around 25 deer per square mile, with common (for TN) population dynamics of an adult sex ratio of 1.5 adult females per male, and a fawn recruitment rate of 60%, in a square mile area (640 acres) there would be about 7 bucks, 11 does and 7 fawns AT ANY ONE MOMENT IN TIME. However, again, that's just a snapshot in time. Deer move around daily, weekly, monthly, seasonally, etc. One day the property could have 20 deer and the next day 40 deer, depending on food sources, hunting activity, habitat quality, etc. Adding up all these daily, weekly, seasonal movements may mean that MANY more deer use the property over the course of a hunting season than just the calculated 25. Deer using that 1 square mile also use all surrounding square miles and vice versa. Because of large individual deer ranges, and daily/seasonal movements, over the course of a hunting season, I find it very common for properties of this size to see 4-6 times the number of unique deer using the property than the deer density suggests. For example, the density suggest only 7 unique bucks should be on the property. But over the course of an entire hunting season, I would not be surprised to see trail-cameras pick up 30-40 unique bucks using the property at some point. And if we're assuming the area has a very good buck age structure, around 10% of those bucks will be mature, which means of the 30-40 unique bucks, 3 or 4 are mature. And interestingly enough, cut the size of the property down and you don't really lose a lot of those bucks--because buck ranges are so large, especially during the rut. At the same time, hunters have to realize that nearly every mature buck they photograph on their property is most likely being shared with many other surrounding landowners--potentially every one for miles around. So looking at the raw numbers, in a 25 deer per square mile area, even with good dynamics you're only looking at about 0.7 mature bucks per square mile. A 100 acre property is really out of luck at only 0.1 mature bucks. However, the reality of the situation--large ranges, and daily/seasonal deer movements--may actually bring a couple of mature bucks across a 100 acre property during a given deer season. [/QUOTE]
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