Coker
Well-Known Member
Every area is different and you have your opinion on your area. The area that I hunt is just about over. There are Tom's to be killed, and there are some hens to be bred, but the majority of the breeding and gobbling are over
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Thoughts on the 4/15 opener?
- Thread starter Southern Sportsman
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Southern Sportsman
Well-Known Member
Lol.
megalomaniac
Well-Known Member
Maybe I'm doing something wrong.... pulling statewide numbers from hunters toolbox for 2 days juvie plus first 2 days of general season.....
2017 8713 killed
2018 6092
2019 6971
2020 11,590 (covid year, crazy increase in hunters afield)
2021 7929
2022 7715
2023 12,450
It's pretty obvious delaying season makes for MUCH more success... like 80% increase over prior 6 years average. Just INSANE really how much easier it is to kill unpressured gobbling toms after 2/3 of the hens have been bred.
Now what I think will happen is the overall kill will be very similar if you use the first 2 weeks of season numbers. So many birds are being killed opening weekend now. In years past, opening weekend April 1st was big... but nowhere near as big as opening April 15th.
Some of the jump in numbers this spring is also due to 2 good hatches in a row as well. I suspect when we fast foward to the end of May, the numbers will be about 10% higher this year (despite reducing limit from 4 to 3 then 2 over the past several years).
BUT, if all those toms previously killed prior to April 15th in years prior are allowed to breed hens now... well, although not scientifically proven 'YET' to make a difference, it just makes sense that it's not a bad thing.
The more I think about it, the more I just cannot see ANY negative to delaying season opener (other than making it too easy to call in birds... you almost feel like you didn't really earn the kills). I'm not sure why some folks are struggling this season (unless you are in one of the many areas that just don't have birds any longer) while it seems like everyone else in the state is killing the snot out of them.
I suppose one downside is you sure as heck don't want to miss opening weekend any longer. The opening weekend slaughter is REAL!
megalomaniac
Well-Known Member
up to 15,554 total as of right now... basically half of the estimated annual kill just in the first 4 days of season plus 2 days juvie
It hasn't even gotten good yet on the properties I have to hunt on.
Every area is different and you have your opinion on your area. The area that I hunt is just about over. There are Tom's to be killed, and there are some hens to be bred, but the majority of the breeding and gobbling are over
I will have to agree with Coker. Where I hunt. That is the key word. I've hunted 4 days. Walked between 5 and 9 miles a day. Have had 0 gobblers answer a call. This morning I did finally hear some gobble 1 time each on the limb. It's just not as much fun here as sounds like some of u are having.
I will have to agree with Coker. Where I hunt. That is the key word. I've hunted 4 days. Walked between 5 and 9 miles a day. Have had 0 gobblers answer a call. This morning I did finally hear some gobble 1 time each on the limb. It's just not as much fun here as sounds like some of u are having.
In response to your statement of two good hatches in a row-if I recall correctly, the determination of the sex of a turkey depends on nest/egg temperature. The last two years have produced way more toms than hens in our area. We have consistently seen as many or more toms since last deer season. The increase in kills this season may be in part to the fact there are simply more toms available(at least in our area of TN). It appears we have a 55/45 ratio of toms to hens which we have never come close to in the past.
Setterman
Well-Known Member
Southern Sportsman
Well-Known Member
I know this is true in several reptile species and some fish species, but I've never seen anything suggesting temperature-dependent sex in turkeys. But to be fair, I've never seen anything suggesting that it doesn't happen either. I think @megalomaniac is the closest thing we have to a turkey incubation expert, so maybe he'll weigh in.
I don't understand why In the world for 26 years you have been using a system that is only successful 10% of the time. It seems that you either are off on your % to fit an argument OR you firmly believe they work much better then you are letting on. I don't know any hunter, Turkey hunter especially that would stick with a tactic that a vast majority of the time fails. Just seems an odd thing to do or say
I mean if I went to a ridge top to listen for birds and only heard them 10% of the time from there or if I hunted a deer stand that I only say deer at 10% of the time I'd find a new ridge or a new stand ESPECIALLY over a 26 year period
megalomaniac
Well-Known Member
Incubation temps varying a little above or below 99.5 deg can slightly skew hatch ratio sex, but not more than a couple percent. It isn't the sex of the developing poult changes during incubation, but rather may be because a certain sex is more likely to survive aberrent incubation temps, and the opposite sex is less likely to actually hatch.
regardless, it does not matter what outside temps are... 35 degrees or 95 degrees. That mother hen is a freaking genius and keeps the temp spot on throughout incubation. I will say this... when she gets off the nest for her daily stretch/ feed until lockdown (day 23 or 24), very high ambient temps will often shorten total incubation time down to 27 days from standard 28 days. Likewise, very cool daytime temps throughout incubation can also result in an extra day from start of incubation until hatch.
Man, first of all, I never claimed to be good at this. If you look back through my posts in the turkey sub-forum I've made it quite clear that I'm not very successful hunting turkeys… albeit I'm pretty selective on shooting only toms. However, your analogy is wrong… either by misunderstanding or misspeaking.
Depending on my available time on a particular hunting day and what birds I can find, I may get anywhere from 2 to 5 "sets" in. That means, I'm posted up hoping a turkey comes to me. In my experience, I think decoys help when the turkeys come off of roost. My opinion is that they get separated in the roosting process and the pitching down process, so naturally they are looking for other birds once they hit the ground. If they come out of the tree and fly into the field, in my experience, often some will change course during their pitch and land close to my decoys. In my experience, guessing, this is successful about 10% of the time (at bringing in a Tom, not just some hens or jakes). 1 out of every 10 sets. Once they're on the ground and henned up, I think the decoys become a detriment. I leave them. Often I leave them in place and move towards turkeys that did what I wanted… (were roosted close, pitched to the field I'm in, and undoubtedly ignored my decoys that they could plainly see). Once I move off, into set number 2, I feel my odds of capitalizing on that set is less than 10%… reduced odds from the morning pitch. However, I believe my odds are greater than if I were to try and recover my decoys and redeploy them somewhere else. Theoretically, let's say my odds on set 2 are 7%. And each following set is the same. If I have 4 more sets that day (7x4) I have a 28% chance at killing a bird after my initial set. I actually do have journal logs that represent this. I feel like those are relatively respectable numbers… roughly a 1 in 3 to 1 in 4 chance of taking a bird per hunting day?. This year I'm 100%, 2 for 2 on getting my daughter birds. First bird was killed on set 2 after failing with decoys, second bird was killed on set 3 after failing with decoys.
Don't know if this clarifies anything. I'm not saying my strategy is the best, or that I'm even decent. I started this venture with absolutely zero help and I do have 26 seasons under my belt. I've killed a pile of birds every way imaginable.
Coker
Well-Known Member
Glad you found it funny
^^^ just feel it's important to add. The vast majority of these birds are public. And to the comment about deer hunters giving up on less than 10% success…. I've killed 3 bucks in the last 4 years. I "could" kill a buck about every day I go. I'm not 10% successful on seeing birds (or deer). But I'd strongly guess that only 1 out of 10 birds I've killed in my life came off a decoy, despite using them for my initial set every single time
Levee Jumper
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In other news, the bluegill are done spawning and the ducks are migrating south for the winter.
You are correct on those numbers, I had ran March 30 as the juvenile. That year it was actually March 23. Looks like we are well on the way to a 40k , 50 k kill season unless it slows. Looks like our turkey population was way, way stronger than a lot of people thought and that's really good news . I knew we would kill more and predicted it long ago in another thread. Turkeys are more vulnerable right now , we have just never had this many people in the woods at this time of year, this has always been my favorite as the hunting gets better and the people are gone the difference is all the people. Hopefully there are reproductive benefits from this as I believe We are going to need them. If the trend continues we are going to set a new state record. It may start getting hot and some give it up , Not many will be hunting Mid to late May for sure so it may be the normal 30k or so who knows, we will find out soon enough. I truly do hope it all works out. If I didn't have work this morning I had a lonely one dead to right but he got behind the only hump between me, him and the whole place at 30 yards blowing the woods down. He finally got wise and angled up the hill away from me and I had to get to work. I have got to retire! Lol
definitely not impossible but I feel like its harder to gauge how far they are when gobbling and your line of sight is way shorter with green up with theirs staying the same. IMO just way easier to bump them and with you hunting rive bottoms you know if you bump him he is gone for a while. and snakes lol
Southern Sportsman
Well-Known Member
On this, we agree.
They have said that certain temps seem to produce a certain sex but i dont think there is a definite science behind it or that it can even be proven.
Ive hatched a few thousand chickens and turkeys over the last few years and in a controlled environment it seems to me the only thing temp does is increase or decrease incubation time.
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I believe this season numbers will fall off the face of the cliff mainly because of the reduced limit and the fact that many wont be hunting very far into May as the die hards will have gotten their limit in the first week or 2.
