President Island Harvest Data / Mississippi River Stage History

[UpperTully]

I didn't want to hijack the Quota Hunt thread by providing a little input on comments being made on Presidents Island not flooding. So I'll touch on it here.

The Mississippi River floods every year and so does Presidents Island. It's just a matter of how bad it floods the Island. The key to these floods are timing, river stage and duration. Due to the elevations of the island, when the river hit's 37-38' that's when it starts posing a real issue as there is minimal ground for deer to shelter on.

This year the river crested at 30.76' Although the river crested 3ft below flood stage don't be fooled by thinking there wasn't any flooding. The river put 5-15' of water on a lot of the island but there were dry areas deer could seek refuge on without leaving the island.

Some may or may not know, but you can utilize a topo map to get an idea of what will be under water with a little math. The Memphis River Gauge is set to an elevation of 183.91' above sea level. Add 183.91 plus the current river stage and it will give you an estimate of what elevations are under water when you reference a topo map. President's Island WMA ranges from 200' to 231' in elevation.


With all of that said. I was curious to see the relation between the harvest data vs the river stages. So I created this graph using 22 years of river stage history and went as far back with the harvest data as I could. You all may find it interesting

Things to consider when looking at the data:

Spring 2011 Flood - 2nd highest crest at Memphis
July 2015 Flood crested at 32' and lasted up to August.
Winter 2015/2016 Flood began in November and crested in January at 39.47' with subfreezing temps.
Spring 2019 Flood - 4th highest crest at Memphis

IMHO I don't think the flooding is all to blame for the decline in the population. 104 does killed in 6 years leading up to the 2015/2016 didn't help matters at all. In my experience, It's bad juju on lower density herds.

Good luck to all of those drawn this year!

 

[Oked]

That's some interesting information! Do u happen to know if they do spotlight counts or any other counts to estimate population from year to year. I drew this year and am trying to get all the info I can. Thanks.

 

[DoubleRidge]

Very interesting information. Thanks for taking the time to put it together and I know it's not possible but I wish similar data was available to correlate to agriculture activity...or in other words....was there more agriculture activity during 2006-2011 and less agriculture activity in more recent years? And are there any crops planted on the island this year?

 

[BSK]

Great data!

 

[UpperTully]

That's some interesting information! Do u happen to know if they do spotlight counts or any other counts to estimate population from year to year. I drew this year and am trying to get all the info I can. Thanks.

I have no clue. TWRA doesn't freely publish or disclose information like that.

It was spoke about in a 2018 Commission meeting when they changed changed the point restrictions. Commissioner Cox ask Region. 1 Biologist Jim Hamlington about it. His response was rather disappointing about his biological/data work.

He did say there was one performed after the 2011 Flood and mentioned a 30% loss of the herd. There was no mention of anything else.

 

[UpperTully]

Very interesting information. Thanks for taking the time to put it together and I know it's not possible but I wish similar data was available to correlate to agriculture activity...or in other words....was there more agriculture activity during 2006-2011 and less agriculture activity in more recent years? And are there any crops planted on the island this year?

There was some loss of ag fields as a result of the 2011 flood. Those areas are now overgrown. The 2011 flood dumped a ton of sand on a lot of the fields too. I'm not sure what the impact would be on crop yields.

They do plant on the Island every year. It's generally beans.

All of this can be seen on Google Earth's archived imagery.

 

[BSK]

That data makes it very clear flooding is not THE cause of the population decline on the Island. Something else is going on.

 

[Bucket]

Great info. Just to clarify, It looks like the Hunter's toolbox doesn't separate out Ensley unit harvest info, and if so, the latest harvest data would represent 30 hunters, whereas the earlier data was 80 hunters on 900 additional acres.

I also think timing of the flooding as it relates to crop planting affects deer populations for that year. I was there in 2019 (the lowest buck harvest on your graph) and that spring's flooding had prevented farmers from accessing most of the island to plant, and there were very few acres of beans. There were 2000 acres of cockelburrs though! Saw 10% of the deer that year than I saw 12 years before in 2007.

 

[UpperTully]

Great info. Just to clarify, It looks like the Hunter's toolbox doesn't separate out Ensley unit harvest info, and if so, the latest harvest data would represent 30 hunters, whereas the earlier data was 80 hunters on 900 additional acres.

I also think timing of the flooding as it relates to crop planting affects deer populations for that year. I was there in 2019 (the lowest buck harvest on your graph) and that spring's flooding had prevented farmers from accessing most of the island to plant, and there were very few acres of beans. There were 2000 acres of cockelburrs though! Saw 10% of the deer that year than I saw 12 years before in 2007.

Excellent points and I thought about the correlation to Ensley when I was putting it together. The data could be broken down better but that was the best I could do with what's available.

The flood of 2019 was typical for a flood of it's size. With early June being the target time to get beans in the ground, you can see the river impacts that with the data below. The 2019 flood lingered around longer than the 2011 flood. Neither are common with typical spring seasonal flooding.

I have my a theory on a contributing factor of the increased flooding issues we've seen in the past decade. I'm just trying to figure out how to lay it out with data.

Another theory I have is; the early years of the hunts were a result over larger than normal herd size due to optimal crop production and lack of hunting pressure. The 2011 flood altered crop production and the carrying capacity decreased. Subsequent major flood events negatively impacted the herd as well and doe harvests.

If you compare the data to that of similar wma's like Moss Island or Earnest Rice (predominately archery only and identical habitat) they're quite similar. This is why I say PI is nothing more special than any other WMA along the Miss River and a fella has equal chance to kill a deer of equal class whenever he wanted to on those WMAs

 

[UpperTully]

That data makes it very clear flooding is not THE cause of the population decline on the Island. Something else is going on.

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on possibilities.

 

[BSK]

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on possibilities.

I don't know the area well enough to speculate. But I agree with your theory that the "peak" years at PI were about hunting an over-abundant herd. Now, herd size much smaller due to lower carrying capacity and high doe harvests of the past. Although deer herds will bounce back from excessive doe harvest quite quickly IF the food/cover resources are available. I've seen that with the National Refuges that overharvested does during the "Earn-A-Buck" harvest rules era. They ended those rules three years ago and deer population is bouncing back fast.

 

[TheLBLman]

When PI became a WMA, the deer were overpopulated (at least in terms of the crop damage they were causing).

Also in the beginning, a much higher percentage of the island was planted agricultural fields (mostly soybeans), and much of the other areas were mature hardwoods. This meant there was relatively little security cover whereby bucks could escape the army of hunters on the quota hunt. This lack of cover greatly enhanced hunter success.

When I went there in December 2016, disappointment would be an understatement.
A significant amount of the former ag field acreage had become the equivalent of 5-yr-old clear-cuts, virtually impenetrable brushy areas, with no trees larger than your arm. When the hunters came in to scout the day before the quota hunt, the older deer simply went into these areas and hunkered down.

But there was really no evidence of many deer at all in 2016, i.e. very few tracks around the beanfields and fresh rubs were very few & far between.

Note the 2016 buck kill.
In my party of three hunters, two of three didn't even see a deer of either sex while hunting.

There was some loss of ag fields as a result of the 2011 flood. Those areas are now overgrown. The 2011 flood dumped a ton of sand on a lot of the fields too.

They do plant on the Island every year. It's generally beans.

 

[TheLBLman]

What I remember most about my PI hunt was the aesthetics,
which included visual, olfactory, and sounds.

 

[Andy S.]

Great info. Just to clarify, It looks like the Hunter's toolbox doesn't separate out Ensley unit harvest info, and if so, the latest harvest data would represent 30 hunters, whereas the earlier data was 80 hunters on 900 additional acres.

I only scanned this thread, and will dig in later, but this is the first thought that came to my mind. Furthermore, the gross antler score disparity between PI and private/public land throughout the State has greatly diminished over the last 20 years, due to QDM early on and more selective hunters over the last decade allowing more bucks to get some AGE on them. From 2000-2005, I was shooting 2.5/3.5 year old 110" bucks on private land and PI hunters were shooting 5.5 year old 140-180" bucks on the quota hunt. I wanted to be like them at that point in time. Over the last 5-10 years, those gross scores have converged, generally speaking. I say all that to say PI has all but lost it's luster compared to the opportunity afforded in much of the State if a little trigger restraint is practiced throughout the season, for consecutive seasons. These days, some hunters hunt PI all three days and see next to nothing, longing for the unbelievable action packed rut hunt that was the norm in the early years. I do not desire to ignore other quota hunt opportunities or apply for points for a decade to see next to nothing on a very limited access short lived hunt, when my time could be better spend elsewhere on land I am vested in. There are still some quality bucks there, but the allure of the hunt for many is them reflecting on their PI experience in the early 2000s.

 

[UpperTully]

So it was asked about the loss of ag fields. Here is a satellite image of the island during the Spring of 2010. This image is a good depiction of all the fields on the island. The date of the image is off as it doesn't correlate with the river stage on that date. You can tell the river is starting to back up on Island and is at least 16' on the Memphis gauge

.

 

[UpperTully]

This image dated fall of 2016 shows the areas that were once ag fields are now new growth timber/dense thickets. My calculations place the loss of ag fields were in the neighborhood of 1000 acres.

 

[UpperTully]

Here is an image from 2018 showing the Island when the river is around 36' on the Memphis gauge. Note the only dry ground is the dry ridge to the west and around the entrance of the WMA (above right center). That's ample room for deer to shelter in place. Providing the river doesn't rise any more.

 

[Andy S.]

Here is the island in February 2012, after the 2011 flood of record. We were reconstructing top bank with stone rip rap (red circle) to restore/maintain channel alignment and prevent a future cutoff. Future repair work is shown in blue circle where a lot of the 2011 flood waters exited the island into McKellar Lake Harbor. As previously stated, thousands of cubic yards of river sand was deposited on the island, with sand depths exceeding 10 feet in places. The island is forever scarred from this event.

 

[MickThompson]

I think flood timing (summer in particular) is especially damaging. I'd imagine a doe that's displaced in winter is much more likely to return to the island than a doe that's either about to give birth or one that just lost her fawn to a flood. Also consider the nutritional stress it puts on a buck.

There's a reason deer fawn in the summer instead of spring

 

[Bear15]

Some great info here by the OP. I love seeing this topic come up because it's definitely worth digging into. I'd love to see the state work to develop a few more QUALITY WMAs. If PI has taught the state anything it should be that there's a significant desire of TN hunters that desire a chance to shoot a quality deer with their bow and they're willing to wait and sacrifice a hunt in other WMAs for that chance, hence the crazy number of points required to draw PI. I have several thoughts on PI…I drew and hunted the Ensley in 2013 with 8 pts. It was the year of the ice storm. I hunted all 3 days. Me and my buddy hunted all 3 days and after the first morning we almost had the place to ourselves. Everybody left cause the whole place was frozen. I had trees falling around me, it was beautiful, but in hindsight probability I was crazy. I had scouted and hung on escape routes and then there was no hunters left to pressure and push them. I still saw several deer and good chasing but not any of those dream PI bucks I had heard of. I did pick up about a 140" deadhead and a shed that was 70", that was the highlight of our trip. The TWRA officers I spoke with on the scout day were super guys and very helpful…which actually brings me to my point. One officer ( who wrote me the claim tag for the deadhead) enlightened me to the club that surrounded Ensley. Told me of the studies that MSU had partnered with them and what those guys had killed and even what they were paying for said lease. Well those leases are still there…and so are their deer. Fast forward to last fall when I met a judge from the Memphis area while hunting in IL. He was a super guy and very familiar with the Island and surrounding leases., one of which he is a member of. He showed me lots of pics of his very impressive trophy room and a few weeks later I got more pics from him of his buck kills from last year. I'm sure flooding takes a few deer there each year but those deer don't just stand there and drown when the water rises otherwise I'd imagine those 5 figure leases wouldn't still have members. I'd love to see the island make a comeback and I'd certainly like to see the Ensley come back into use. Me and my buddy are sitting on 9 pts now. We almost cashed in our 8 this year for Oak Ridge but decided to hold off in hopes either PI bounces back in the years remaining it will take us to draw or maybe the state does something new in a new area that has quality potential. If OR cancels again this year I'll have another choice to make but I sure would love to get another shot at PI with less ice in the trees and more deer than what guys have been seeing the last few years.