Effects of hunting pressure over the course of a season

[BSK]

I've written many posts about this topic over the years, but was just going through some data and noticed the obvious - how much older buck sightings decline from a stand as it is hunted repeatedly through a single hunting season.

From 14 hunting seasons encompassing 1,409 individual hunts (a "hunt" being any time a person climbs into a stand), the decline in sighting rate (deer seen per hunting hour) for only bucks 3 1/2 years old and older is 66% from the first time a particular stand is hunted in a season to the 5th time a stand is hunted that season. In fact, the decline is gradual and continuous, with each hunt, on average, producing a lower sighting rate than the previous hunt. In essence, over those 14 years, the 2nd time a stand is hunted produces a lower 3 1/2+ year-old buck sighting rate than the 1st time the stand was hunted. The 3rd time produces a lower sighting rate than the 2nd time, and so.

If I could figure out this Open Architecture presentation software I'm using instead of the original PowerPoint, I would post a slide of the graph. Surprisingly, 2 1/2 year-old buck sightings decline with each progressive hunt even more dramatically than 3 1/2+ year-old buck sightings. Yearling buck sightings also decline, but nowhere as dramatically as older buck sightings, and in fact, for yearling bucks the sighting rate the 2nd hunt is slightly higher than the 1st.

The lesson is, your best chance to kill a 3 1/2+ year-old buck from a particular stand is the first time you hunt it. Odds decline with each subsequent hunt from that stand.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

Thanks for sharing this! Any idea (or theories) why the 2 1/2 yo's sightings declined at a faster rate than the 3 1/2+'s sightings? That's interesting and mind-boggling. Do you believe in coincidences, or that there is something there that the mind hasn't made a connection to yet?

 

[TheLBLman]

The lesson is, your best chance to kill a 3 1/2+ year-old buck from a particular stand is the first time you hunt it. Odds decline with each subsequent hunt from that stand.

I generally agree and agree greatly.
There are however some stand locations that are only "high odds" during various stages of the rut, and many these particular "rut" stands can be exceptions to the generality.

Also, the generality is as valid, possibly even more so, with mature doe as older bucks.

 

[BSK]

There are however some stand locations that are only "high odds" during various stages of the rut, and many these particular "rut" stands can be exceptions to the generality.

Completely agree.

 

[BSK]

Thanks for sharing this! Any idea (or theories) why the 2 1/2 yo's sightings declined at a faster rate than the 3 1/2+'s sightings? That's interesting and mind-boggling. Do you believe in coincidences, or that there is something there that the mind hasn't made a connection to yet?

I think it is simply because there are so many more of them, and on this particular property, are a target for a high percentage of the hunters. In essence, the sighting rate of 2 1/2 year-old bucks is very high for the 1st time stands are hunted, hence the decline is more dramatic by the 5th time a stand is hunted.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

I think it is simply because there are so many more of them, and on this particular property, are a target for a high percentage of the hunters. In essence, the sighting rate of 2 1/2 year-old bucks is very high for the 1st time stands are hunted, hence the decline is more dramatic by the 5th time a stand is hunted.

Makes complete since knowing they are targets.

I'd be interested in knowing this data on our place. I do keep notes of every hunt and what others have seen, but haven't compiled all that "data", just somewhat of a journal with the weather conditions, etc....As far as sightings, I do limit any particular stand to 3 sits a year. Unless I have a hunch.

 

[woodsman04]

I for sure have changed my hunting strategy the last decade directly from BSKs advice. Yes, bow hunting is my favorite. And I still bow hunt more than rifle hunt 10:1.
I usually do not bow hunt until it's cool weather, likely mid October. It isn't worth to me stinking up the woods when deer may not move anyways because of temps.
When I do go hunt early season, I hunt areas where I may only see does, because that is usually what I want, a doe or two to eat before I start serious hunting.
I do not hunt my favorite lands at all until opening day of rifle. I'll hunt my best spot or two opening day through end of rut, then I won't return except maybe the second rut.

I have spots that I hunted in the rut, and I won't go back until next rut. I'll save them for the best weather day when it times with the rut peak. In my area I say peak Rut is December 1-10, and the peak of the peak is about the 6-8. Leading up to that week I'll watch weather. If possible I'll put in PTO from work on the day or two that look the best weather wise. If it's all good I'll take off a week. If it's all bad, then I'll likely just take off one day and see what happens.

Weather in my experience in the southeast isn't as predictable as the Midwest. You can pretty much bet in the mid west during fall and winter your going to have fall and winter weather. Around my parts it can be 90 October, 30 on thanksgiving, and by Christmas I'm wearing flip flops again.

 

[MickThompson]

I think it is simply because there are so many more of them, and on this particular property, are a target for a high percentage of the hunters. In essence, the sighting rate of 2 1/2 year-old bucks is very high for the 1st time stands are hunted, hence the decline is more dramatic by the 5th time a stand is hunted.

I'd also imagine harvest pressure on the 2.5 year olds on adjacent properties plays a role as well. For many, they're fair game, especially the top end 2 year olds that meet the 4 on a side rule

 

[muddyboots]

I totally agree your odds go down. My confidence is never higher than first hunt of a spot I feel good about. With that being said every mature buck I've killed has never been
Killed in a first sit. 0. They all have been killed either on a slight adjustment or later sit. I hunt by weather, conditions and sign and gut. I don't hunt my places back to back to back. I plan my entrance and exits. I seem to get away with it.

 

[megalomaniac]

Have you noticed an increase in sightings at a particular stand once it has been 'rested' for a period of time (at least 3-4 weeks)?

Of course there are confounding variables present when comparing different time frames (rut timing, fewer older deer remaining in the herd due to increased harvest over the course of the season, etc), but I have absolutely noticed a dramatic return to near baseline sightings when an area has been rested for 4 weeks.

Which is why I now hunt Tn during 1st rut second to third week of November, then leave the property alone until 2nd rut during the 3rd week of December. In fact, we have killed a 4.5y/o or older buck in December each of the past 4 years, with opportunities a couple years before that.

 

[fairchaser]

Do you think this holds true in shooting houses or at distances of 100 yards are more? I would think that hunting open hardwoods would be more so than the edges of fields or crop fields. I've found that certain stands are less effected than others for deer sightings and buck sightings. Also, I've found that once you clear a field of deer with your scent, that field is toast for several days if not weeks.

 

[BSK]

I'd also imagine harvest pressure on the 2.5 year olds on adjacent properties plays a role as well. For many, they're fair game, especially the top end 2 year olds that meet the 4 on a side rule

Agreed.

 

[BSK]

Have you noticed an increase in sightings at a particular stand once it has been 'rested' for a period of time (at least 3-4 weeks)?

Of course there are confounding variables present when comparing different time frames (rut timing, fewer older deer remaining in the herd due to increased harvest over the course of the season, etc), but I have absolutely noticed a dramatic return to near baseline sightings when an area has been rested for 4 weeks.

Which is why I now hunt Tn during 1st rut second to third week of November, then leave the property alone until 2nd rut during the 3rd week of December. In fact, we have killed a 4.5y/o or older buck in December each of the past 4 years, with opportunities a couple years before that.

That is something I need to look at closely. However, for this property, which is the primary hunting property for a large family, the pressure really never falls off once MZ season begins. It is hunted hard during the rut month of November into the first week of December. Then weekends until the end of the season.

I wish I could get my clients to collect data to the level needed to check this type of data from multiple locations and hunting styles.

 

[BSK]

Do you think this holds true in shooting houses or at distances of 100 yards are more?

I'll bet not as much. There is some "shooting house over a food plot" data mixed into with what I presented, but it makes up only a small percentage. On this property, most buck sightings are point blank in the woods. As I've stated before, the average MZ/rifle shot distance is 35 yards, with most sightings occurring within 60 yards.

 

[Rackseeker]

The lesson is, your best chance to kill a 3 1/2+ year-old buck from a particular stand is the first time you hunt it. Odds decline with each subsequent hunt from that stand.


I think this varies with the property itself and the hunter. I have seen hunters ruin a area with one hunt in a stand location. I hunted a stand location 9 mornings this past season before seeing the buck I was after. But it is a rut stand location like LBLman was talking about. I don't step foot in there until the couple weeks of the rut each year. And I don't go straight to the core area the first time I hunt the area. I start out about 400 yds out then move in closer each time I hunt until I get to the sweet spot. This is mountainous terrain.

 

[TN Larry]

I completely agree. I never hunt my best places until November and when the weather is right. I also hardly ever sit a place over 3 times a year unless a big gap in between. I think that I have only hunted my best stand where I've killed my two biggest deer score wise that were both 3.5+ along with at least 3 more 3.5+ eight times the past 5 seasons. I think I made 3 straight sits that I killed a 3.5+ out of it, two one year and one the next.

 

[Ski]

Good topic and I agree 110%.

 

[fairchaser]

Along these same lines, what is the effect of hunting pressure over many seasons? I have witnessed this at Ames with our increase in hunting pressure for does. I believe there's a generational impact.

For example. Three does walk out into a field and you drop one. The other two run off and eventually join other does. Each time, they come to the edge of that field, the two surviving does hesitate and act afraid. The other does pick up on this behavior and wait until after dark to walk out. Repeat this scenario over many years and for several generations and bingo.

 

[jag1]

I hunted a club for several years that allowed as many does as you could shoot. Most did NOT shoot many does but they were definitely harvested. As the years went by, deer sightings per trip decreased & the policy changed to one doe a year. This was in a high density area so I'm assuming the does became affected by the pressure like you say fair chaser. No idea what it's like there now,

 

[BSK]

Along these same lines, what is the effect of hunting pressure over many seasons? I have witnessed this at Ames with our increase in hunting pressure for does. I believe there's a generational impact.

For example. Three does walk out into a field and you drop one. The other two run off and eventually join other does. Each time, they come to the edge of that field, the two surviving does hesitate and act afraid. The other does pick up on this behavior and wait until after dark to walk out. Repeat this scenario over many years and for several generations and bingo.

I work for a club that, a few years ago, began designating certain food plots as "buck only," meaning you can only kill bucks from those plots. After a couple of years of this policy, the difference in sighting rates on those buck only plots is dramatic. In fact, so dramatic I now recommend this technique to other clients. Honestly, if the property can withstand it, I highly recommend no doe shooting in plots until after the rut.