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#355883 - 08/21/07 08:36 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


Registered: 06/12/02
Posts: 19027
Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
Does Morgan have a rotary tiller?

Yes, and it's a big one.

The CainMasters bush-hogged our plots first,
Then they dug them deep with a chisel plow --- keep in mind they're using 4-wheel drive tractors, not 4-wheelers pulling dinky little toy disks.

Lastly, they went over them with this rotary tiller, which left about 10 inches of powdery soil for planting. So in view of the rain in the forecast, decided to go ahead and do some early planting.

 Originally Posted By: BSK
I hate to predict this because every time the 10-day models suggest precip out at 8-10 days, once those dates draw nearer, the prediction for rain disappears.

And that's exactly what happened over this past weekend.
We decided to plant, and then when I checked the weather post-planting, all that rain forecast for late this week was no longer in the forecast.

Now, things are looking up a bit with the current 7-day forecast.
But if we don't get substantial rainfall within the next week, my early plots are screwed and will have to be replanted.

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#355971 - 08/21/07 09:20 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 64817
Loc: Nashville, TN

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And that's why I'm, not going to plant until we get SUBSTANTIAL rain. The soil is so dry that even a 1/2" rain isn't going to help. We will need several inches of rain over several days to improve soil moisture enough for proper plant growth.

A chisel plow and a rotary tiller....

I better get on the phone to Morgan.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#356006 - 08/21/07 09:35 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


Registered: 06/12/02
Posts: 19027
Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
And that's why I'm, not going to plant until we get SUBSTANTIAL rain.
Hey, I agree with you, just thought this was a chance worth taking this time. I would not have done this if were not anticipating a mast failure. But if there is a mast failure, there will be the additional risk factor of later plantings being eaten up before they get growing?

IF we get enough rain over the next week and the next, that will be 2 to 3 additional weeks of early growth before the earliest dates I'd normally plant. This could provide quite a bit more forage mass, and maybe prevent the deer from wiping the plots out before they get going. Three or four years ago I did this (August planting) with some Biologic Maximum, and lucked out on the rain, and by the time bowseason opened, had thick knee-high plots.

I just figured worse case, plenty of time to plant them over.

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#356199 - 08/21/07 10:44 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 64817
Loc: Nashville, TN

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And the very low biomass out there right now is why I plan to 1) make sure I have cover crops in all my fall plots (plants that grow fast but die-off with the first frost--to give deer food to eat while protecting my main fall/winter crops); and 2) over-seed pretty heavily due the heavy browse pressure the plots will receive soon after germination.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#356671 - 08/21/07 02:06 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
wlt
4 Point


Registered: 08/02/03
Posts: 401
Loc: Athens, Tenn.

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
And the very low biomass out there right now is why I plan to 1) make sure I have cover crops in all my fall plots (plants that grow fast but die-off with the first frost--to give deer food to eat while protecting my main fall/winter crops); and 2) over-seed pretty heavily due the heavy browse pressure the plots will receive soon after germination.

What type of cover crops BSK and what will you be overseeding (the same cover crops?)
_________________________
"God created the world in 6 days, and rested on the 7th," I like to think he spent part of that day in a deer stand.

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#356910 - 08/21/07 04:04 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: wlt]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
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Buckwheat works well, but if you want to spend some money, soybeans work even better as a cover crop.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#357138 - 08/21/07 06:40 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
HOOK
TnDeer Old Timer
16 Point


Registered: 05/01/99
Posts: 15754
Loc: Rutherford County, TN

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We're still only looking at a 10 -20% chance of scattered precip. Not much to get excited about. Sure was hoping a troph would develop to push some Dean reminants up here but that won't happen.
_________________________
Everytime I see you....there you are.

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#358042 - 08/22/07 08:15 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 64817
Loc: Nashville, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
I hate to predict this because every time the 10-day models suggest precip out at 8-10 days, once those dates draw nearer, the prediction for rain disappears. But right now the 10-day models suggest an opening of the Gulf next week and a much improved chance of rain Sunday through Wednesday. The models are also predicting the first big Canadian High Pressure to push into TN by next Wednesday/Thursday (Aug. 29/30) with cooler weather.


It figures. As soon as I post this, the long-range models change and predict a much lower chance of precip next week. Now they are still predicting that first big Canadian High to push in midweek, but they also now predict rain for everywhere except Middle and West TN.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#358380 - 08/22/07 10:44 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


Registered: 06/12/02
Posts: 19027
Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

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It's amazing how the 10-day forecast changes from day-to-day.
It's an essentially worthless exercise to even look at it.

Yesterday it would predict 3 days of rain, today it will predict no rain at all, tomorrow it will predict 3 days of rain ---- duh, of course it's either going to rain or it's not, but the longterm forecasts are typically worthless.

But now your pal Al has this global warming thing figured out, as he's claiming to make accurate 100-year forecasts, while you weathermen can't even give me an accurate 10-day forecast!

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#358577 - 08/22/07 11:37 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
Non-Typical


Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 64817
Loc: Nashville, TN

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Honestly, it is virtually impossible to make accurate forecast of rain during a time of year that the majority of rainfall comes from afternoon thunderstorms. Their development is far too random and localized. All you can really predict is the right atmospheric conditions for thunderstorm development over a general area.

The 10-day models are actually getting amazingly good at predicting the movement of High and Low pressure systems during the fall, winter and spring, but summer weather is a crap-shoot.

Considering the very best 1-3 month climate models have an accuracy rate of around only 55% (just a hair better than guessing), the concept of multi-year climate models is ludicrous. No climate model has EVER predicted the following year's weather accurately.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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