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#345246 - 08/16/07 12:16 AM It's Going to RAIN!
Wes Parrish
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Registered: 06/12/02
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It's going to RAIN this weekend, and a lot more the next!

I'm planting a few acres this weekend!

It's early, but if this early planting doesn't do well, still plenty of time to add to it later. If it does well, it will be great because will have great forage mass in early fall. Mainly planting rape and Biologic Maximum this weekend --- stuff I don't think the deer will destroy too quickly before it provides a great food supply --- a much greater food supply than winter wheat and oats and/or clovers, which will also plant later.

On some 1/2-acre and larger plots, thinking about doing half of each plot in brassicas this weekend, and saving the other halves for a mix of mainly oats, wheat & clovers next month.

Man, I'm excited about this rain ---- can't even sleep tonight!

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#345248 - 08/16/07 12:22 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
Tiny
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I hope we all get a good steady Root Soaker.
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#345400 - 08/16/07 07:51 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Tiny]
Winchester
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Very little rain in the forecast here!
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#345426 - 08/16/07 08:02 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Winchester]
BSK
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It's looking a little better this weekend due to Tropical Storm Erin, but I'm still not holding my breath.
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#345719 - 08/16/07 09:58 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
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I should clarify:
I'm expecting rain in Stewart County sometime between late Saturday afternoon and Monday morning ---- a good "planting" rain.

And think there will be a better rain over a few days about a week later. This should give a good start on some early fall plots.

But down there in Humphreys County, probably won't rain a drop. ;\)

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#345789 - 08/16/07 10:45 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
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But down there in Humphreys County, probably won't rain a drop.

That would be par for the course.
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#346435 - 08/16/07 04:45 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
deerchaser007
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Registered: 12/17/02
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I think i need to watch the weather,.. last i heard it was not coming this way!!
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#346669 - 08/16/07 06:32 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: deerchaser007]
BSK
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I still question how much of it will come our way. I'm not hold my breath.
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#346704 - 08/16/07 06:48 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
156p&y
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 Originally Posted By: BSK
It's looking a little better this weekend due to Tropical Storm Erin, but I'm still not holding my breath.


Same here it's been so hot the last two days me and the other farmhand felt like we where in a dryer machine.
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#347021 - 08/16/07 08:47 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: 156p&y]
Wes Parrish
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I can smell the rain now.
It's already raining in Kentucky, and almost in TN near the KY-TN line.

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#347559 - 08/17/07 05:00 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
Wes Parrish
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How sweet it is!
Raining this morning in Stewart County.

BSK,

If you can go backwards on your radar to @ 4:30am this morning, not that "lake effect" we've been talking about. I'll bet most of this cell dissipates before it gets to Houston & Montgomery Counties. This is at least twice in the past week.

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#347651 - 08/17/07 07:13 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
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I don't think it's going to happen. Latest model runs do not bring Erin's moisture into TN.
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#348124 - 08/17/07 10:17 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Greg .
aPoStROpHe PolIcE
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Weeeeee!! We had some rain this morning in the NC piedmonts. It didn't last too long, but I'm happy to get it and hope we get more soon.
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#348447 - 08/17/07 11:46 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
big jim
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I think the best chance is going to be Dean. Although the long range models place it in south texas, It could take that historic northerly turn in the gulf. If it does, that is when my fall planting will go in.
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#349240 - 08/17/07 04:29 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: big jim]
156p&y
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How many of you guys think Texas will bring out some giants this year? I do with all the rain they've had this season it should be one of their best antler producing seasons in a while.
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#349463 - 08/17/07 06:22 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: 156p&y]
HOOK
TnDeer Old Timer
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I would wager that the shear size and complexity of Dean that we will get ssome precip out of it regardless of where it landfalls.
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#350309 - 08/18/07 08:55 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: HOOK]
BSK
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Current models still take Dean into northern Mexico, with the moisture then going over to the desert SW.

10-day computer models still predict no rain for western/middle TN anytime in the foreseeable future. East TN a different story.
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#351142 - 08/18/07 07:55 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
8 POINTS OR BETTER
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We got 1.3" this afternoon.
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#353255 - 08/19/07 10:39 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
plinker22
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 Originally Posted By: BSK

10-day computer models still predict East TN a different story.

BSK, what website(s)do you use for your 10 day forecasts? I am in Sevierville, 25 miles East of Knoxville.
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#353554 - 08/20/07 07:27 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: plinker22]
BSK
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Any of the sites that carry the normal models such as the RUC, WRF, GFS, etc. The models are well organized at:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
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#353954 - 08/20/07 10:58 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
ferg
Cancer Free
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WE haven't had a drop of rain - and don't look for any for another week at least - \:\(

ferg....
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#353991 - 08/20/07 11:48 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: ferg]
Wes Parrish
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Well, when we made the decision to plant several acres this past weekend, there WAS quite a bit of rain forecast within the coming week (for Stewart Co.). But AFTER we planted, most of that "forecast" is now revised to just "hot & sunny"! Dern hurricanes!

Unfortunately or fortunately, I'm not sure which, we did get some rain yesterday evening in Stewart County. In one area, I'd say a good half inch fell over about 30 minutes, yet nearby it was barely enough to settle the dust, but probably enough to germinate what we planted, only to sprout in a dust bowl. Most of our freshley planted plots were in the areas that just got the dust settled. Oh, well. Maybe that "lake effect" will become the saving grace before the plantings sprout and die.

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#354015 - 08/20/07 12:11 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
Kirk
Cerebral Assassin
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It had better rain. I sweated enough to supply enough water to rain on at least two of the plots. \:D
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#354127 - 08/20/07 01:18 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Kirk]
Wes Parrish
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 Originally Posted By: Kirk
It had better rain. I sweated enough to supply enough water to rain on at least two of the plots. \:D

When you weren't riding around in an air-conditioned truck eating barbeque!

Believe it or not, it came a good rain over at the farmhouse, but when I started checking plots afterward, some had barely enough rain to settle the dust ---- and those dadgummed big feathered rats were having a feast. Doubt if there will be much left to germinate after a few days of turkeys gone wild.

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#354153 - 08/20/07 01:35 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
Kirk
Cerebral Assassin
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 Quote:
When you weren't riding around in an air-conditioned truck eating barbeque!


Guilty as charged! Who was that guy that was driving the truck? \:D

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#354326 - 08/20/07 03:36 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
wlt
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Registered: 08/02/03
Posts: 401
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what is the forcast for East Tn. I am in Athens and the 7 day regular forcast by the tv says no rain or slight 20% chance.
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#354509 - 08/20/07 05:05 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: wlt]
BSK
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Better chances of rain in East TN than West or Middle.
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#355606 - 08/21/07 06:33 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
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It actually rained again before dawn this morning in Stewart County. Not much, but more than enough to settle the dust again. The farther north in the county, the more rain fell. I'd say the early plantings (Aug 18 - 19) have now had enough rainfall to germinate. Maybe, just maybe, we're going to be lucky with these early plots.

By the way, BSK, the CainMasters came in with their heavy equiptment and you wouldn't believe how well the plots were tilled up. The ground was so hard that a 4-wheeler disc wouldn't even scratch it. But their tractors and heavy equiptment just churned it up and roto-tilled it into a fine powder about 8 to 10 inches deep. No way would we have even considered planting had we not had this ground churned up so well. Of course, I may be re-planting it all in a few weeks if there's not a good amount of rain next week, and the next, but at least the ground has been well worked up.

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#355798 - 08/21/07 08:03 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
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Does Morgan have a rotary tiller?
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#355805 - 08/21/07 08:05 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
BSK
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I hate to predict this because every time the 10-day models suggest precip out at 8-10 days, once those dates draw nearer, the prediction for rain disappears. But right now the 10-day models suggest an opening of the Gulf next week and a much improved chance of rain Sunday through Wednesday. The models are also predicting the first big Canadian High Pressure to push into TN by next Wednesday/Thursday (Aug. 29/30) with cooler weather.
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#355883 - 08/21/07 08:36 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
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Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
Does Morgan have a rotary tiller?

Yes, and it's a big one.

The CainMasters bush-hogged our plots first,
Then they dug them deep with a chisel plow --- keep in mind they're using 4-wheel drive tractors, not 4-wheelers pulling dinky little toy disks.

Lastly, they went over them with this rotary tiller, which left about 10 inches of powdery soil for planting. So in view of the rain in the forecast, decided to go ahead and do some early planting.

 Originally Posted By: BSK
I hate to predict this because every time the 10-day models suggest precip out at 8-10 days, once those dates draw nearer, the prediction for rain disappears.

And that's exactly what happened over this past weekend.
We decided to plant, and then when I checked the weather post-planting, all that rain forecast for late this week was no longer in the forecast.

Now, things are looking up a bit with the current 7-day forecast.
But if we don't get substantial rainfall within the next week, my early plots are screwed and will have to be replanted.

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#355971 - 08/21/07 09:20 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
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And that's why I'm, not going to plant until we get SUBSTANTIAL rain. The soil is so dry that even a 1/2" rain isn't going to help. We will need several inches of rain over several days to improve soil moisture enough for proper plant growth.

A chisel plow and a rotary tiller....

I better get on the phone to Morgan.
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#356006 - 08/21/07 09:35 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
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 Originally Posted By: BSK
And that's why I'm, not going to plant until we get SUBSTANTIAL rain.
Hey, I agree with you, just thought this was a chance worth taking this time. I would not have done this if were not anticipating a mast failure. But if there is a mast failure, there will be the additional risk factor of later plantings being eaten up before they get growing?

IF we get enough rain over the next week and the next, that will be 2 to 3 additional weeks of early growth before the earliest dates I'd normally plant. This could provide quite a bit more forage mass, and maybe prevent the deer from wiping the plots out before they get going. Three or four years ago I did this (August planting) with some Biologic Maximum, and lucked out on the rain, and by the time bowseason opened, had thick knee-high plots.

I just figured worse case, plenty of time to plant them over.

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#356199 - 08/21/07 10:44 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
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And the very low biomass out there right now is why I plan to 1) make sure I have cover crops in all my fall plots (plants that grow fast but die-off with the first frost--to give deer food to eat while protecting my main fall/winter crops); and 2) over-seed pretty heavily due the heavy browse pressure the plots will receive soon after germination.
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#356671 - 08/21/07 02:06 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
wlt
4 Point


Registered: 08/02/03
Posts: 401
Loc: Athens, Tenn.

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
And the very low biomass out there right now is why I plan to 1) make sure I have cover crops in all my fall plots (plants that grow fast but die-off with the first frost--to give deer food to eat while protecting my main fall/winter crops); and 2) over-seed pretty heavily due the heavy browse pressure the plots will receive soon after germination.

What type of cover crops BSK and what will you be overseeding (the same cover crops?)
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#356910 - 08/21/07 04:04 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: wlt]
BSK
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Buckwheat works well, but if you want to spend some money, soybeans work even better as a cover crop.
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#357138 - 08/21/07 06:40 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
HOOK
TnDeer Old Timer
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We're still only looking at a 10 -20% chance of scattered precip. Not much to get excited about. Sure was hoping a troph would develop to push some Dean reminants up here but that won't happen.
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#358042 - 08/22/07 08:15 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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 Originally Posted By: BSK
I hate to predict this because every time the 10-day models suggest precip out at 8-10 days, once those dates draw nearer, the prediction for rain disappears. But right now the 10-day models suggest an opening of the Gulf next week and a much improved chance of rain Sunday through Wednesday. The models are also predicting the first big Canadian High Pressure to push into TN by next Wednesday/Thursday (Aug. 29/30) with cooler weather.


It figures. As soon as I post this, the long-range models change and predict a much lower chance of precip next week. Now they are still predicting that first big Canadian High to push in midweek, but they also now predict rain for everywhere except Middle and West TN.
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#358380 - 08/22/07 10:44 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


Registered: 06/12/02
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It's amazing how the 10-day forecast changes from day-to-day.
It's an essentially worthless exercise to even look at it.

Yesterday it would predict 3 days of rain, today it will predict no rain at all, tomorrow it will predict 3 days of rain ---- duh, of course it's either going to rain or it's not, but the longterm forecasts are typically worthless.

But now your pal Al has this global warming thing figured out, as he's claiming to make accurate 100-year forecasts, while you weathermen can't even give me an accurate 10-day forecast!

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#358577 - 08/22/07 11:37 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Honestly, it is virtually impossible to make accurate forecast of rain during a time of year that the majority of rainfall comes from afternoon thunderstorms. Their development is far too random and localized. All you can really predict is the right atmospheric conditions for thunderstorm development over a general area.

The 10-day models are actually getting amazingly good at predicting the movement of High and Low pressure systems during the fall, winter and spring, but summer weather is a crap-shoot.

Considering the very best 1-3 month climate models have an accuracy rate of around only 55% (just a hair better than guessing), the concept of multi-year climate models is ludicrous. No climate model has EVER predicted the following year's weather accurately.
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#358640 - 08/22/07 11:54 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


Registered: 06/12/02
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 Originally Posted By: BSK
Honestly, it is virtually impossible to make accurate forecast of rain during a time of year that the majority of rainfall comes from afternoon thunderstorms. Their development is far too random and localized.

And I am frequently taken off guard when there is ZERO rain-chance forecast within 24 hours, yet I awaken (Stewart County) to dawn rain and/or see thunderstorms/rain develop in an afternoon, just hours after the forecasts predicted "party cloudy". Definately a "lake effect" making this localized forecast even more complex.

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#359111 - 08/22/07 03:04 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: ]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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His advice will be "Be wary of the mud!" \:D
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#360207 - 08/22/07 10:05 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
Boone 58
16 Point


Registered: 06/23/04
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I sure hope this weather pattern changes, or were in for a rough food plot season! We are going to need food plots because there will be no acorns in most places.
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#371359 - 08/29/07 05:42 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Boone 58]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


Registered: 06/12/02
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Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

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Well, not ready to break my arm patting myself on the back, but feeling much better now about my earliest ever large-scale fall food plot plantings (August 18) --- planted in drought conditions to boot.

Couldn't have even thought about planting had it not been for the heavy equiptment churning up that concrete-like soil. Hopefully today's rain will save the plots, and more hopefully, more rain will follow next week.

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#371373 - 08/29/07 05:50 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: ]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


Registered: 06/12/02
Posts: 19269
Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

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 Originally Posted By: FOOTER
Hey, Wes? I would still appreciate any information that you could share with me on Cross Creeks NWR and the Duck River Bottoms area of Tennessee NWR. Thanks.

Footer,
Sorry, I just got backlogged, and forgot.
I'll send you a PM but . . . . .
 Originally Posted By: BSK
His advice will be "Be wary of the mud!" \:D

Yes, this is the first advice I would give you!

Just remember, the Duck River Bottoms are in BSK's "neck of the woods", and this creates a voodoo-like environment where strange things can happen and Murphy's Law is working overtime.

A few things to beware:

1) A big cottonmouth hitting you above your snake boots.

2) Having your parked truck just slide off the levee into the swamp.

3) Getting run over by a train (never mind there are no tracks).

4) Giant pecker gnats that suddenly swarm out of no where. Oh, pretty big mosquitoes, too, but at least you can hear them coming.

5) Some refuge lady in waders that slips around the swamps. I think she has this little voodoo doll of me that she likes to stick in the mud.

6) Getting locked in behind the gate when you try to drive out about dark.

7) Oh, the mud. It's deeper than the water.

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#371385 - 08/29/07 06:04 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
Non-Typical


Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 65387
Loc: Nashville, TN

Offline
How true!

I've put a "big buck hex" on the whole Duck Bottoms!
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#371427 - 08/29/07 06:35 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


Registered: 06/12/02
Posts: 19269
Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

Offline
Oh, forgot #8 . . . .

8) Having your truck catch on fire and just burn up as you watch. ;\)

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#372071 - 08/29/07 10:28 PM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: Wes Parrish]
wcsd462
4 Point


Registered: 11/17/06
Posts: 335
Loc: Wilson Co.

Offline
It's just rained a little here, two days in a row!.....Total of about 10 min, I'll take it.
_________________________
Poplar Hill Kennel's
Home of :
SqCh Curtis' 6-Gun Boggs Creek Shooter
NtCh GrSqCh Poplar Hill Hunter

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#372233 - 08/30/07 01:39 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: wcsd462]
CopperHead77
12 Point


Registered: 08/20/07
Posts: 6756
Loc: Hickman Co.

Offline
Still hasn't rained here since mid july
_________________________
http://www.NoahTheMovie.com (This is not the Russell Crowe movie,this one is actually good).

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#372304 - 08/30/07 06:42 AM Re: It's Going to RAIN! [Re: CopperHead77]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
Non-Typical


Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 65387
Loc: Nashville, TN

Offline
Nothing more than sprinkles the last two days. Today (Thursday) is our last shot for awhile.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

Top
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