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#3404451 - 10/16/13 05:55 AM BSK Weather Forecast?
WMAn
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Registered: 11/05/10
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BSK,

The Weather Channel and Accuweather are both predicting a cold snap next week starting on Wednesday, October 23 and extending through the weekend with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 30s.

Is that what you are seeing too?
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#3404553 - 10/16/13 07:51 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: WMAn]
BSK
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The GFS model is still predicting a big cold snap the end of next week (Juvi weekend), with the coldest weather Saturday morning. Coldest morning so far this year.
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#3404558 - 10/16/13 07:54 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: BSK]
Dbllunger
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I like the sound of this. My boys are pretty excited about the upcoming juvi hunt.
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#3404585 - 10/16/13 08:07 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: WMAn]
MUP
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Just look at the Juvy weekend outlook from the WC. IF this holds to pattern, it's going to be one of the best weekends for Juvy in memory I believe! Only out to Fri on this chart, but if it holds, man, what a opener!

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#3404738 - 10/16/13 09:30 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: MUP]
KENBOB10
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Nice!
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#3404744 - 10/16/13 09:34 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: KENBOB10]
BSK
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I'm trying to temper my excitement over that forecast by reminding myself the GFS model has a very bad habitat of exaggerating weather systems out at 9 and 10 days. Once the day I'm interested in falls within 7 days, I feel more confident about that model's predictions.
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#3404804 - 10/16/13 10:19 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: BSK]
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Grumpaw
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Man, it seems like the first good cold snap is almost always on Juvi weekend. I like it!
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#3405193 - 10/16/13 02:26 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: Unicam]
Bone Collector
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Registered: 09/09/09
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my philosophy with long range weather forecasts is to not put too much stock in them. i wait until 2 days before to start really looking at the weather, then within 24 hours of the hunt I start looking at wind with the optimistic view that the forecast MAY hold true. I still look at the wind in the morning when I get up, to be sure it hasn't changed It is nice to look out 10 days though and dream that it will be low 30's on a weekend...
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#3405208 - 10/16/13 02:33 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: Bone Collector]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: Bone Collector
my philosophy with long range weather forecasts is to not put too much stock in them.


I don't put much stock in "forecasts." I only look at the raw computer model data that people make forecasts from. Out to 7 days, it is getting pretty good. Beyond 8 days, not so much.
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#3405219 - 10/16/13 02:39 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: BSK]
woodsman87
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Registered: 09/27/12
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I have faith in 4-5 days but I have seen them change 7 day forecast too much. I just watch the local news channel weather.
I looked at the long term forecast, and it sure does excite you, with most of November being like 5-10 degrees below average!
Hopefully it will be the case.

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#3405619 - 10/16/13 07:48 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: woodsman87]
Akurn
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I listen to the NOAA weather forecast. Seems to be the most accurate I've been able to find. BSK, do you see us having a wetter,colder winter like I keep hearing we are going to get?
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#3405651 - 10/16/13 08:05 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: BSK]
Boone 58
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 Originally Posted By: BSK
The GFS model is still predicting a big cold snap the end of next week (Juvi weekend), with the coldest weather Saturday morning. Coldest morning so far this year.


We received a cold snap a few years back on juvy weekend...2010 if I remember correctly and the scraping activity went bonkers!!! I saw scrapes everywhere here in wayne and Lawrence counties! Mostly from the young bucks.....but boy it was exciting!! I am on the Laurel Hill WMA hunt that 24-26th.
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#3405670 - 10/16/13 08:17 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: Akurn]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: Akurn
I listen to the NOAA weather forecast. Seems to be the most accurate I've been able to find. BSK, do you see us having a wetter,colder winter like I keep hearing we are going to get?


The seasonal forecast group I have the most faith in is calling for a colder than normal November, but a record warm December, with "average" winter conditions not starting until some time in January.

They are forecasting a very wet winter, with flooding being a problem in the South.

And by the way, as for actual forecasts, The NWS/NOAA is best out to 7 days. Accuweather's and the Weather Channel's day to day forecasts suck. But Accuweather's seasonal forecasters are pretty good.
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#3405677 - 10/16/13 08:22 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: Boone 58]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: Boone 58
 Originally Posted By: BSK
The GFS model is still predicting a big cold snap the end of next week (Juvi weekend), with the coldest weather Saturday morning. Coldest morning so far this year.


We received a cold snap a few years back on juvy weekend...2010 if I remember correctly and the scraping activity went bonkers!!! I saw scrapes everywhere here in wayne and Lawrence counties! Mostly from the young bucks.....but boy it was exciting!! I am on the Laurel Hill WMA hunt that 24-26th.


That timing sounds about right for your area. I'm hoping that cold snap hits, because our scraping is already exploding, and Juvi weekend might actually catch the beginning of the older buck cruising phase in my area (we have an early rut).
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#3406862 - 10/17/13 02:38 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: ]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: CAMARO12
 Originally Posted By: BSK
 Originally Posted By: Boone 58
 Originally Posted By: BSK
The GFS model is still predicting a big cold snap the end of next week (Juvi weekend), with the coldest weather Saturday morning. Coldest morning so far this year.


We received a cold snap a few years back on juvy weekend...2010 if I remember correctly and the scraping activity went bonkers!!! I saw scrapes everywhere here in wayne and Lawrence counties! Mostly from the young bucks.....but boy it was exciting!! I am on the Laurel Hill WMA hunt that 24-26th.


That timing sounds about right for your area. I'm hoping that cold snap hits, because our scraping is already exploding, and Juvi weekend might actually catch the beginning of the older buck cruising phase in my area (we have an early rut).
What area are you referring to BSK??


Wayne and Lawrence County. A cold snap around Juvi for that area could really make scraping explode.

I'm up in Humphreys and our local rut is very early, hence we've already seen our scraping explode.
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#3406875 - 10/17/13 02:45 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: ]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: CAMARO12
What phase would you think the deer are in around the Benton/Henry County line??


Just about to go through false rut. Ours was last weekend.
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#3407146 - 10/17/13 06:02 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: ]
BSK
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Scraping making and scrape checking should be in full swing.
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#3407265 - 10/17/13 07:38 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: BSK]
in the dog house!
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That should be great for juvi. Would love for my daughter to shoot a good one Ive been seeing!


BSK........How do you think things will be over here along the river ( Tipton Co. ) the week of the 11th as far as stage of the rut IYO....... Any info for over here.....

Thanks!
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#3407795 - 10/18/13 06:59 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: in the dog house!]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: in the dog house!
BSK........How do you think things will be over here along the river ( Tipton Co. ) the week of the 11th as far as stage of the rut IYO....... Any info for over here.....


I'm not familiar with rut timing in Tipton County. When is your normal peak of breeding?
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#3407881 - 10/18/13 07:57 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: BSK]
BSK
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GFS computer models still look really good for next week. Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday mornings all look pretty cold (possible frost/freeze).
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#3408254 - 10/18/13 11:59 AM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: BSK]
Bullfrog
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 Originally Posted By: BSK
 Originally Posted By: CAMARO12
What phase would you think the deer are in around the Benton/Henry County line??


Just about to go through false rut. Ours was last weekend.


Ours was last weekend as well.....on the Henry/Benton line

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#3408287 - 10/18/13 12:20 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: BSK]
in the dog house!
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 Originally Posted By: BSK
 Originally Posted By: in the dog house!
BSK........How do you think things will be over here along the river ( Tipton Co. ) the week of the 11th as far as stage of the rut IYO....... Any info for over here.....


I'm not familiar with rut timing in Tipton County. When is your normal peak of breeding?


Well I have only been living over here for 3 years, so this only y 3rd season over here. Best I have been able to tell is between the 10th and 25th. Just thought you may have some useful info, or at least some more firm dates.
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#3408825 - 10/18/13 08:13 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: in the dog house!]
in the dog house!
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ttt
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#3408849 - 10/18/13 08:25 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: in the dog house!]
KANATI McD
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Registered: 10/30/04
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 Originally Posted By: in the dog house!
 Originally Posted By: BSK
 Originally Posted By: in the dog house!
BSK........How do you think things will be over here along the river ( Tipton Co. ) the week of the 11th as far as stage of the rut IYO....... Any info for over here.....


I'm not familiar with rut timing in Tipton County. When is your normal peak of breeding?




Well I have only been living over here for 3 years, so this only y 3rd season over here. Best I have been able to tell is between the 10th and 25th. Just thought you may have some useful info, or at least some more firm dates.


Last week of November, trickling into December.....


Edited by KANATI McD (10/18/13 08:26 PM)
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#3408914 - 10/18/13 08:51 PM Re: BSK Weather Forecast? [Re: KANATI McD]
in the dog house!
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Thanks buddy!
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