Waaaaay too much neck in late September to be only 2 1/2. I'm going with 3 1/2.
BSK, wouldn't you say that his neck just looks so much bigger in pic 2 because he is so much closer to the camera? You can't really see his neck in pic 1 to have a good reference, but his body looks rather small in both pics, which would make his neck look that much bigger.
I'm obviously no expert, but I'd say 2.5.