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#336336 - 08/11/07 07:47 AM Weather forecast
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Long range computer models are starting to suggest the possibility of rain next weekend. I'll keep an eye on it.

The models also suggest a bit of a breakdown in the upper level High Pressure system that has been sitting over us. That would provide more opportunity for afternoon thunderstorms.
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#336349 - 08/11/07 08:03 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BSK]
PRB
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Registered: 02/24/07
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Loc: Pinewood (Hickman County)

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Man I do hope so. I just pulled up the seven day forecast and I dont like the outlook. Just took a walk this mourning and standing next to the fence looking at my neighbors pastures and they are solid brown and this in the river bottom area. It was sad looking. There was some dew in a few spots this morning but not very much.
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#336360 - 08/11/07 08:23 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: PRB]
BSK
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The pastures--even the bottomland ones--look terrible in my area too. My lawn is burnt brown.

However, I've been amazed at how well the native weed species deer relly on at this time of year are doing, such as ragweed, desmodium and polk.

By the way PRB, I use different forecasting tools than the Weather Channel or Accuweather use.
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#336474 - 08/11/07 10:00 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: ]
PRB
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Registered: 02/24/07
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Loc: Pinewood (Hickman County)

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BSK....I didnt know you used forecasting tools. Do you have a pretty good or better (let say 2 to 5 day) forecast than others ?
psycho....What little amount Ive let grow up all year also seems to be helpng.
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#336735 - 08/11/07 05:29 PM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BSK]
Tenbears
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Registered: 12/08/03
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Loc: MUSIC CITY (BNA)

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
The pastures--even the bottomland ones--look terrible in my area too. My lawn is burnt brown.

However, I've been amazed at how well the native weed species deer relly on at this time of year are doing, such as ragweed, desmodium and polk.



I have a small field that seems to have what I think is polk, after talking to DoubleD and listeningt to him describe it to me. The deer are nawing it like crazy.
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#337125 - 08/12/07 07:16 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BSK]
HOOK
TnDeer Old Timer
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Registered: 05/01/99
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Loc: Rutherford County, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
I've been amazed at how well the native weed species deer relly on at this time of year are doing, such as ragweed, desmodium and polk.


Same here, I've kept a few areas of field high just to give them extra forage.
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#337271 - 08/12/07 10:07 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: HOOK]
David J
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Registered: 03/10/99
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And we always think we can do better than mother nature
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#337299 - 08/12/07 10:21 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: David J]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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 Originally Posted By: David J
And we always think we can do better than mother nature


And that's a huge and growing problem David. See the "feeding" thread.
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#337309 - 08/12/07 10:24 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: PRB]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: PRB
BSK....I didnt know you used forecasting tools. Do you have a pretty good or better (let say 2 to 5 day) forecast than others ?


I use the same computer models the NOAA forecasters use, but I may interpret them differently. Accuweather and the Weather Channel have their own in-house computer models, but they have proven to be not as accurate as the NOAA models.

I use the WRF model for 3 1/2-day forecasts and the GFS model for 10-day forecasts.
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#338993 - 08/13/07 08:56 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BSK]
BigAl
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Registered: 07/31/01
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Loc: Fayette County, TN US

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I hope you're right. Its so dry I caught a catfish the other day and it had a tick on it.
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#339052 - 08/13/07 09:32 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BigAl]
Mathews Hunter
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Registered: 07/24/03
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 Originally Posted By: BigAl
I hope you're right. Its so dry I caught a catfish the other day and it had a tick on it.


Good One!
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#339093 - 08/13/07 10:32 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: Mathews Hunter]
BSK
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Models still indicate an increased chance of precip next Sunday through Tuesday.
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#339112 - 08/13/07 10:45 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
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Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
The pastures--even the bottomland ones--look terrible in my area too. My lawn is burnt brown.

However, I've been amazed at how well the native weed species deer relly on at this time of year are doing, such as ragweed, desmodium and polk.

I was amazed at some of the native forb patches I observed yesterday evening --- there were still some very lush ones on the north sides of every ridge line.

Also, while 100% of the ridge-top food plots were dead, I still had a few very lush bottomland clover patches -- of course the deer seemed more interested in the ragweed. (I think we've had a tad more rain this summer to the north of you.)

I walked around quite a bit, visited one spring that's the closest water to many ridge-running deer ---- it was still providing a beautiful fresh water supply --- and there were no dead deer near it. Was worried I'd find a lot of dead dear this weekend, but didn't find a one.

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#339493 - 08/13/07 04:08 PM Re: Weather forecast [Re: ]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Google "weather models."

My personal favorite model site is:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
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"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#339623 - 08/13/07 05:36 PM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
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Hey BSK,

We had another nice shower this afternoon in Stewart County!
At least enough to settle the dust! ;\)

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#339672 - 08/13/07 05:59 PM Re: Weather forecast [Re: Wes Parrish]
156p&y
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 Originally Posted By: WesParrish
Hey BSK,

We had another nice shower this afternoon in Stewart County!
At least enough to settle the dust! ;\)


Oh just rub it in why don't you Wes! \:D
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#340694 - 08/14/07 07:06 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: 156p&y]
BSK
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I saw that on Radar yesterday. Of course, it evaporated just before getting to my place. \:\(

Even the forecast rain early next week is looking more iffy. \:\(
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"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#340834 - 08/14/07 08:50 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BSK]
Wes Parrish
16 Point


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Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
I saw that on Radar yesterday. Of course, it evaporated just before getting to my place. \:\(

It has been amazing over the years how many times I've pulled up the radar for Tennessee statewide, and the only place there was any rain was over Stewart County.

Being this "land between the lakes" is frequently causing some "lake effect" rainfall. IMO, this augmented rainfall may be causing Stewart to have some larger antlered bucks (relative to their age class) than some surrounding counties with better soils AND more agriculture.

A few years ago I overheard some comments at the LBL check station from some green suits, and in retrospect, it's possible one of them may have been Alan Peterson, as this would have been before I knew him. The comment went something like this:
"I can't believe all these good bucks coming in, and this is some of the sorriest soil in the region!"

Think about it.
How good are the "good" soils of Texas without adequate rainfall?

Or, how could it be that the neighboring Henry County, with better soils and much soybean & corn agriculture ---- and a better buck:doe ratio ---- and having recorded perhaps over ten times as many buck harvests during the past 30 years ---- yet Henry has produced few TN registry bucks compared to Stewart County. Why?

My contention is Stewart County, despite some less desirable soils and a relative lack of agriculture, consistently gets a little more rainfall than Henry County.

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#340868 - 08/14/07 09:11 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: Wes Parrish]
Wes Parrish
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Guess this is a little "soapbox" issue of mine:
I like to focus on all the factors that come together to help produce larger antlered bucks, more than just saying it's all about the soil. The soil may very well be the single most important factor, or wait, could it be age, or sometimes even rainfall? Or do all the other factors collectively have a greater impact than the soil? Guess it depends on the soil. ;\)

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#340875 - 08/14/07 09:14 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: Wes Parrish]
Winchester
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Now wait a minute Wes, I thought the size of antlers didnt concern you? You have repeatedly posted that you are more interested in age than antlers!! LOL just razzin ya a little, somebody's gotta keep it honest!!
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#340883 - 08/14/07 09:16 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: Wes Parrish]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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I would also add a higher percentage of the land in timber for a factor of why Stewart beats Henry. Henry has the soils and the agriculture, but not enough cover to allow bucks to grow old.

That's always one of the "Catch 22" problems of areas with extensive timber. That timber allows bucks to grow old, but doesn't do much for antler development.

I can grow a lot of old bucks in my timber, but unless I can draw some of the bucks out of the nearby agricultural bottomlands, I'm not going to see any large-antlered old bucks. I'll have to count them up, but I guess I've photographed around a dozen mature bucks on my place over the last few years. But very few of those bucks would make the TN Registry.
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"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

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#340911 - 08/14/07 09:36 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: BSK]
tellico4x4
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Registered: 11/29/04
Posts: 938
Loc: Killen, AL

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We took advantage of the hot, dry weather ths past weekend to do a little weed killing in the plots. Bush hogged,and sprayed them all. Plan on going back up and disking this weekend. Hopefully all the weeds will be history by the time the weather allows us to plant...
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#340981 - 08/14/07 10:08 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: tellico4x4]
Winchester
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Spraying doesnt work as well/fast when the plants arent actively growing. Good luck!
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#341155 - 08/14/07 11:25 AM Re: Weather forecast [Re: Winchester]
Wes Parrish
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 Originally Posted By: Winchester
Now wait a minute Wes, I thought the size of antlers didnt concern you? You have repeatedly posted that you are more interested in age than antlers!!
Of course I'd rather have an older buck with larger antlers than one with smaller antlers.

Only point I was trying to make here is that in any given circumstance, collective other factors can be as important, and even more important than the base soil.

A yearling buck on the best soil seldom competes (antlers or weight) with a 3 1/2-yr-old buck on relatively poor soil. Likewise, put more rainfall on average soil than inadequate rainfall on better soil, and the average soil may grow larger deer and bucks with larger antlers (at all ages classes).

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