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#3330214 - 08/21/13 08:14 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BamaProud]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
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 Originally Posted By: BamaProud
Looks like they hit the nail on the head with the rain...but not the Temperatures.
This was their Summer outlook(June through August) released at the same time the Climate Prediction Center released theirs.
May 06, 2013
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/summer-forecast-drought-in-west-storms-east/11128877


Yup, they overestimated temps. But they did get the over-all pattern right, and that's what's important to me.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#3330484 - 08/21/13 11:50 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: TAFKAP]
BamaProud
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Registered: 04/03/11
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 Originally Posted By: TAFKAP
Bama, what about the NOAA hurricane prediction guys? Laughing stock or legit?


Well pretty much everyone including NOAA predicted an above normal year...so far its been pretty quiet.

Here is their verification database.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/
(you won't find such a database in the private sector)

However, hurricane predictions are a little different. We can have an extremely active season and none hit the US and most folks will call it a quiet season. On the other hand it 1 or t storms hit bigh cities and that is all we have for the year...its considered a "bad" year by most of the public.

In the grand schemes of things I don't think these predictions provide any information of value. What is the normal citizen supposed to do if a busy severe storm season or a warm winter is predicted?


Edited by BamaProud (08/21/13 11:58 AM)
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#3330500 - 08/21/13 12:01 PM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BamaProud]
BamaProud
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By the way, if you look back through the archives of the private Sector season predictions you will notice they never(or very rarely) predict normal conditions. And when they do there is often wording about a heavily populated area being "due" for something bad...totally not-based in science.

The reason for this is money. Hype generates money. Normal conditions doesn't generate internet clicks, sell advertisement, or make CNN ask them to do interviews. Make no mistake, the private weather industry is driven 100% by the same thing that drives all other private industry. I worked in Private Meteorology for almost 5 years so my comments are not without basis.
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#3330511 - 08/21/13 12:17 PM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BamaProud]
BSK
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When it comes to seasonal forecasting, I'll take some of the private services every time. But when it comes to daily forecasts, without question the NWS is the best, especially out to 7 days.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#3331449 - 08/22/13 08:00 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BSK]
BamaProud
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Registered: 04/03/11
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What do you do with the seasonal forecasts?

Are you just curious, or do you plan differently for a warm winter as opposed to a cold winter or even a normal winter. Along the same line of thought, what about an "active" severe weather season?

I have been pushing my organization to get out of the seasonal forecast "business" if they are being used in any way, I surely can be convinced to support them. Based on reviewing Climate Prediction Centers archives, I have to change my mind about their accuracy. I still have questions abou thir value though.


Edited by BamaProud (08/22/13 08:03 AM)
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#3331570 - 08/22/13 09:26 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BamaProud]
Deer Whisperer
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Registered: 04/16/05
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Loc: Murfreesboro, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BamaProud
What do you do with the seasonal forecasts?

Are you just curious, or do you plan differently for a warm winter as opposed to a cold winter or even a normal winter. Along the same line of thought, what about an "active" severe weather season?

I have been pushing my organization to get out of the seasonal forecast "business" if they are being used in any way, I surely can be convinced to support them. Based on reviewing Climate Prediction Centers archives, I have to change my mind about their accuracy. I still have questions abou thir value though.


My original question was mainly for trivial sake. There is no way I would make / change any plans based on a long range forcast.
During deer season, I will often decide to use a vacation day for hunting, based on the forcast for just the next day. I feel that most of the time the forcast for the next 24 hours is pretty accurate. Even then, I'm mostly looking at wind speed and direction. Also I will try to hunt right before a front moves in because the deer move a lot when the barometric pressure is falling.

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#3331613 - 08/22/13 09:58 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BamaProud]
TAFKAP
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Registered: 11/06/09
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 Originally Posted By: BamaProud
What do you do with the seasonal forecasts?

Are you just curious, or do you plan differently for a warm winter as opposed to a cold winter or even a normal winter. Along the same line of thought, what about an "active" severe weather season?

I have been pushing my organization to get out of the seasonal forecast "business" if they are being used in any way, I surely can be convinced to support them. Based on reviewing Climate Prediction Centers archives, I have to change my mind about their accuracy. I still have questions abou thir value though.


I can't think of anyone that does anything besides one of two things:

1) Laugh hysterically when the predictions are announced, wondering how bad off they'll be.
2) Say to themselves, "Huh...." and go on about their day.

We know it's going to be varying degrees of hot in the summer and cold in the winter. Is anyone out there (that doesn't already) flogging on firewood to stock up even more? I doubt it. Are the canned-food hoarders throwing a few extra cans in their pantry for a more active tornado season? I doubt that, too.

To me, long-range "Crystal Ball" climate predictions are a waste of valuable resources. I can't imagine anyone basing crop planting schedules, home protections, or long-range fuel purchases based on what the climatologists are predicting.
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#3331808 - 08/22/13 11:59 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: TAFKAP]
BamaProud
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Registered: 04/03/11
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 Originally Posted By: TAFKAP


I can't think of anyone that does anything besides one of two things:

1) Laugh hysterically when the predictions are announced, wondering how bad off they'll be.
2) Say to themselves, "Huh...." and go on about their day.

We know it's going to be varying degrees of hot in the summer and cold in the winter. Is anyone out there (that doesn't already) flogging on firewood to stock up even more? I doubt it. Are the canned-food hoarders throwing a few extra cans in their pantry for a more active tornado season? I doubt that, too.

To me, long-range "Crystal Ball" climate predictions are a waste of valuable resources. I can't imagine anyone basing crop planting schedules, home protections, or long-range fuel purchases based on what the climatologists are predicting.



I agree 100%. As stated earlier I worked in the Private sector for a while. Based on my forecast some very big businesses, One being Home Depot another being ENRON(remember them ;\) )made some multi-million dollar decisions based on my opinion.

There just isn't enough accuracy in long range forecasts to warrant action IMO.
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#3332056 - 08/22/13 03:23 PM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BamaProud]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
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 Originally Posted By: BamaProud
What do you do with the seasonal forecasts?

Are you just curious, or do you plan differently for a warm winter as opposed to a cold winter or even a normal winter.


Pure scientific curiosity. I don't do or change a thing.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#3332057 - 08/22/13 03:25 PM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: TAFKAP]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
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 Originally Posted By: TAFKAP
I can't imagine anyone basing crop planting schedules, home protections, or long-range fuel purchases based on what the climatologists are predicting.


I agree with that comment.

To me, they're just fun to watch, and I'm always curious what factors the forecasters are looking at to come up with their predictions.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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