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#3328530 - 08/19/13 08:57 PM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: redblood]
BAMA BOW MERKER
6 Point


Registered: 11/03/09
Posts: 590
Loc: Dyer County, TN

Offline
Whatever it is people will complain. But for me bring on the cold!
_________________________
If chasing deer through the woods is crazy, I do not wish to be sane.

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#3328828 - 08/20/13 07:32 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BAMA BOW MERKER]
Deer Whisperer
10 Point


Registered: 04/16/05
Posts: 4495
Loc: Murfreesboro, TN

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Most of the time, all I've got is an AccuWindow forcast. Even that can go wrong.
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#3328954 - 08/20/13 09:10 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: Deer Whisperer]
BamaProud
12 Point


Registered: 04/03/11
Posts: 7048
Loc: Shelby County, TN

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For the record, I am not a fan of long term weather(or climate) predictions. It is hard enough to forecast conditions a week out. That goes for Hurricane seasons, winter, Severe weather etc...there just hasn't been much proven skill in those forecasts above just simply "forecasting" seasonal normals.

For example think about this past Spring. Most people remember the catastrophic tornadoes that his Oklahoma city and think we had a busy tornado season. In fact, 2013 is on track to be the least active tornado season in history. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
...The same can be said for winter or Summer, one or two 105+ degree or 6 inch snowfalls can give people the perception of a hot/cold season when in fact isn't.

Anyway...for Tennessee the Climate prediction Center is forecasting near normal temperatures and precipitation for October through December and above normal temperatures for the western half of TN (normal East) Nov-Jan with near normal precipitation for most of the state...slightly above normal in the west.
October November December outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

November December January outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

MY Forecast: It will be colder this winter than it is now...and start to warm up in the Spring. \:\)

*this is my opinion and not necessarily the opinion of my employer.


Edited by BamaProud (08/20/13 09:16 AM)
_________________________
Save the Little ones for the Little Ones.
Wine-Down Brewing and Winemaking

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#3328967 - 08/20/13 09:15 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: redblood]
Pic IN the Casa
TurdFarmer2.0
14 Point


Registered: 03/18/11
Posts: 9716
Loc: TN

Offline
Tonight... 100% chance of dark.
_________________________
Tolerance now means OBEY!!!!


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#3329056 - 08/20/13 10:19 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: Pic IN the Casa]
Hunter 257W
10 Point


Registered: 10/04/12
Posts: 3341
Loc: Franklin County

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Higher in the day than at night - wetter when it rains that when it don't. Can't go wrong with that one. \:\)
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#3329087 - 08/20/13 10:43 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: Pic IN the Casa]
MUP
Non-Typical


Registered: 08/01/07
Posts: 45514
Loc: Just North of Chatt-town

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 Originally Posted By: Pic IN the Casa
Tonight... 100% chance of dark.


...with continuing darkness till the early morning hours. ;\)
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MUP

Amateurs: Built the Ark

Professionals: Built the Titanic

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#3329089 - 08/20/13 10:44 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: MUP]
MUP
Non-Typical


Registered: 08/01/07
Posts: 45514
Loc: Just North of Chatt-town

Offline
BP,
Just curious, but what was the summer forecast as of earlier in the year? Wondering if the heavy rain and cool temps were forecast long range. Thanks!
_________________________
MUP

Amateurs: Built the Ark

Professionals: Built the Titanic

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#3329110 - 08/20/13 11:01 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: MUP]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
Non-Typical


Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 65683
Loc: Nashville, TN

Offline
 Originally Posted By: MUP
BP,
Just curious, but what was the summer forecast as of earlier in the year? Wondering if the heavy rain and cool temps were forecast long range. Thanks!


The group of forecasters I follow nailed the summer forecast. On the flip side, they absolutely blew the spring forecast. Since I've been following their predictions (about three years), they've gotten 2 out of every three seasonal forecasts right (for our area and region).
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#3329133 - 08/20/13 11:21 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BSK]
Brisco Darlin
10 Point


Registered: 04/24/12
Posts: 3263
Loc: East Tn.

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used to be an old lady up in cumberland co that would predict by the wooly worms. not even sure if she's still alive or not.
_________________________
I'm a little mean but i make up for it by being real healthy.

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#3329156 - 08/20/13 11:47 AM Re: Bama Proud winter prediction [Re: BamaProud]
ferg
Cancer Free
16 Point


Registered: 07/29/04
Posts: 16008
Loc: At the TNDeer shirt factory %^...

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 Originally Posted By: BamaProud


MY Forecast: It will be colder this winter than it is now...and start to warm up in the Spring. \:\)

*this is my opinion and not necessarily the opinion of my employer.


^^^ Nailed it ^^^

\:D

ferg....

I did see the weather channel last night use an overlay with 'below normal' temps for this winter in the Tenn Valley -

YMMV

ferg....\
_________________________
What's your PSA #? Don't know? You should, do it.

USCG(Ret)
Semper Par !




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