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#325458 - 08/03/07 10:58 AM BSK long term....
DoubleD
8 Point


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forcast for rain say first weekend in Sept. thru end of Sept?
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#325853 - 08/03/07 05:29 PM Re: BSK long term.... [Re: DoubleD]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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No forecast capacity exisits for long into the future. The very best 1/2+ month forecasts have accuracies just a hair above guessing. The best that can be done is a 10-day forecast.
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"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#325938 - 08/03/07 06:53 PM Re: BSK long term.... [Re: BSK]
DoubleD
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ok thanks.
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#326453 - 08/04/07 07:49 AM Re: BSK long term.... [Re: DoubleD]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
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Right now, there are no large scale precipitation events in the 10-day forecast.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#326581 - 08/04/07 10:02 AM Re: BSK long term.... [Re: BSK]
DoubleD
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Registered: 05/25/05
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I have a 15 day outlook but it doesnt seem to be accurate to what really happens 15 days down the road. I was thinking you had a source for long term weather that was more accurate.
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#326636 - 08/04/07 11:21 AM Re: BSK long term.... [Re: DoubleD]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
Non-Typical


Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 64227
Loc: Nashville, TN

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Accuweather puts out a 15-day forecast, but I'm not impressed with their accuracy. I look at the output from the standard computer models NOAA uses and interpret the data myself.

We simply don't know enough about how the atmosphere works to make accurate longer-range forecasts.

Which is one of the reasons I have to laugh every time I hear another "global warming computer model" forecast for what the climate will be in 10 years. Not a single climate model has EVER been accurate for 1 year, let alone 10 years, 50 years, 100 years, etc.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#326726 - 08/04/07 02:21 PM Re: BSK long term.... [Re: BSK]
DoubleD
8 Point


Registered: 05/25/05
Posts: 1737
Loc: White House,Tn

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Im with you there.
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