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#3010508 - 11/01/12 09:22 AM Latest swing state polls - Nov 1
Vermin93
10 Point


Registered: 12/11/10
Posts: 4691
Loc: Dallas, TX & Signal Mtn, TN

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I don't like the looks of it!

Latest Swing State Polls

November 01, 2012

Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)

New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
_________________________
“The more I read and the more I listen, the more apparent it is that our society suffers from an alarming degree of public ignorance” - Retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor

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#3010521 - 11/01/12 09:32 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Vermin93]
Dale3
8 Point


Registered: 09/14/03
Posts: 1123
Loc: Live in Mt.Juliet ,Hunt Jackso...

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nope me either, polls have changed with the storm
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#3010525 - 11/01/12 09:33 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Vermin93]
DaveB
10 Point


Registered: 09/03/08
Posts: 3161
Loc: Shelby County

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Throw out any poll with NBC in it
Additionally, as with all polls, you gotta know the underlying science/math. Did they weight the poll? From what I have heard on Fox, the pollsters all weight the results based on either 2008 or 2010 elections. With early voting so widespread, are they talking to those who have or have not already voted? Are they calling registered voters who have consistently voted in last two or 3 or 4 elections? Young or old? Rolling results or one-time results? Before or after Sandy?

Or, in English, they poll takers can and do have political leanings. Romney is going to crush the village idiot in Florida so those results really do not seem reasonable.

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#3010526 - 11/01/12 09:33 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Vermin93]
Crappie Luck Moderator
Non-Typical


Registered: 01/29/03
Posts: 59560
Loc: Smith Co.

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Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode

Look at this


http://unskewedpolls.com/all_11_swing_states_unskewed.cfm
_________________________
"To find out who your real rulers are, simply look to those whom you CANNOT criticize..."
--Voltaire

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#3010556 - 11/01/12 09:58 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Crappie Luck]
Deer Whisperer
10 Point


Registered: 04/16/05
Posts: 4279
Loc: Murfreesboro, TN

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Most pollsters are taking the raw data and adding 8 points to Obama's side. Now considering that, go back and look at the numbers.
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#3010570 - 11/01/12 10:08 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Crappie Luck]
ratsnakeboogy
10 Point


Registered: 08/28/08
Posts: 3409
Loc: Andersonville, TN

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 Originally Posted By: Crappie Luck
Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode

Look at this


http://unskewedpolls.com/all_11_swing_states_unskewed.cfm



All I want for Christmas is the above electoral map!

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#3010573 - 11/01/12 10:09 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Deer Whisperer]
Vermin93
10 Point


Registered: 12/11/10
Posts: 4691
Loc: Dallas, TX & Signal Mtn, TN

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 Originally Posted By: Deer Whisperer
Most pollsters are taking the raw data and adding 8 points to Obama's side. Now considering that, go back and look at the numbers.


I hope you are right and that most of these pollsters end up making fools out of themselves. That being said, I'm still worried...
_________________________
“The more I read and the more I listen, the more apparent it is that our society suffers from an alarming degree of public ignorance” - Retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor

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#3010596 - 11/01/12 10:26 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Vermin93]
Still-n-Quiet
10 Point


Registered: 07/18/06
Posts: 4777
Loc: San Antonio, TX

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Obama pulled a +7 (about) in 2008. 2004 and 2000 were dead even. So, will Obama pull MORE (a +8) this time out? Nearly impossible. Will he pull the same voters? Very unlikely. The only real question is how much less will he pull. If it is dead even (as 2000 and 2004), Romney wins big. If it is closer to the +7, the courts (and cheating) will decide this; probably for Obama.

My guess is that it will be closer to 2000 turnouts, and the Demonrats will cry voter fraud (projection at it's best).
_________________________
Mike

"I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ, for it is the power of God to salvation for everyone who believes..." (Romans 1:16)

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#3010730 - 11/01/12 11:42 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Crappie Luck]
AndyW
10 Point


Registered: 10/21/10
Posts: 4142
Loc: Allardt, TN

content Online
 Originally Posted By: Crappie Luck
Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode

Look at this


http://unskewedpolls.com/all_11_swing_states_unskewed.cfm



NC, VA and FL are all solidly Romney and have been for the last month. Ohio is polling Romney.

LANDSLIDE!
_________________________
This fall, FIRE THEM ALL. Re-elect NO ONE!!!!!

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#3010945 - 11/01/12 01:35 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Deer Whisperer]
farmin68
16 Point


Registered: 11/08/03
Posts: 13113
Loc: In a tree clinging to my guns ...

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 Originally Posted By: Deer Whisperer
Most pollsters are taking the raw data and adding 8 points to Obama's side. Now considering that, go back and look at the numbers.


Exactly. This year's polling (in the vast majority of polls) has been based on the 2008 turnout, which saw a highly energized Dem base, and a Rep base that was no longer excited about governing.

The EXACT opposite is happening this year. Hell will have to freeze over for the turnout to match the 2008 election.

Anytime you start getting depressed, just ask yourself some of these questions...

Has Obama gained votes since '08 with ANY age group, faction, race, or either gender?

No. He has lost with every one and any combination of them. The ONLY age group he won in '08 was with 18-29's. MANY of those same voters are now out of college and can't find a job, and much of the rest are STILL under or unemployed. They are not happy with their '08 choice.

Looking back on history, which election does this most remind us of? Carter-Reagan 1980. According to the polls less than two weeks before election day, Carter had a comfortable lead.

The Obumbler admin is Carter's second term and voters are even more upset this time.

One more question to ask yourself; How do Obama's rallies size up compared to 2008? How large are Romney's?

Have faith, folks. Rightfully, we have a long of list of reasons to be worried, but for now I still have faith in enough of the voting population to be somewhat confident and optimistic. That could all change Tuesday night, but I'm confident and faithful at least until then. \:\)

Until then, every one of us should be down on our knees every day! We should be asking God for one more opportunity for our generation to turn this country around, and prayerful that we never make such a mistake again as we did 4 years ago.

_________________________
Team Pea Picker

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