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#3010508 - 11/01/12 09:22 AM Latest swing state polls - Nov 1
Vermin93
12 Point


Registered: 12/11/10
Posts: 6127
Loc: Dallas, TX & Signal Mtn, TN

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I don't like the looks of it!

Latest Swing State Polls

November 01, 2012

Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Michigan: Obama 53%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)

New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
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#3010521 - 11/01/12 09:32 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Vermin93]
Dale3
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Registered: 09/14/03
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nope me either, polls have changed with the storm
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#3010525 - 11/01/12 09:33 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Vermin93]
DaveB
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Throw out any poll with NBC in it
Additionally, as with all polls, you gotta know the underlying science/math. Did they weight the poll? From what I have heard on Fox, the pollsters all weight the results based on either 2008 or 2010 elections. With early voting so widespread, are they talking to those who have or have not already voted? Are they calling registered voters who have consistently voted in last two or 3 or 4 elections? Young or old? Rolling results or one-time results? Before or after Sandy?

Or, in English, they poll takers can and do have political leanings. Romney is going to crush the village idiot in Florida so those results really do not seem reasonable.

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#3010526 - 11/01/12 09:33 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Vermin93]
Crappie Luck Moderator
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Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode

Look at this


http://unskewedpolls.com/all_11_swing_states_unskewed.cfm
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--Voltaire

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#3010556 - 11/01/12 09:58 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Crappie Luck]
Deer Whisperer
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Most pollsters are taking the raw data and adding 8 points to Obama's side. Now considering that, go back and look at the numbers.
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#3010570 - 11/01/12 10:08 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Crappie Luck]
ratsnakeboogy
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Registered: 08/28/08
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 Originally Posted By: Crappie Luck
Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode

Look at this


http://unskewedpolls.com/all_11_swing_states_unskewed.cfm



All I want for Christmas is the above electoral map!

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#3010573 - 11/01/12 10:09 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Deer Whisperer]
Vermin93
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Registered: 12/11/10
Posts: 6127
Loc: Dallas, TX & Signal Mtn, TN

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 Originally Posted By: Deer Whisperer
Most pollsters are taking the raw data and adding 8 points to Obama's side. Now considering that, go back and look at the numbers.


I hope you are right and that most of these pollsters end up making fools out of themselves. That being said, I'm still worried...
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"Florida State blew the coverage and they got rewarded for it.” Coach Brian Kelly

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#3010596 - 11/01/12 10:26 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Vermin93]
Still-n-Quiet
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Obama pulled a +7 (about) in 2008. 2004 and 2000 were dead even. So, will Obama pull MORE (a +8) this time out? Nearly impossible. Will he pull the same voters? Very unlikely. The only real question is how much less will he pull. If it is dead even (as 2000 and 2004), Romney wins big. If it is closer to the +7, the courts (and cheating) will decide this; probably for Obama.

My guess is that it will be closer to 2000 turnouts, and the Demonrats will cry voter fraud (projection at it's best).
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#3010730 - 11/01/12 11:42 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Crappie Luck]
AndyW
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Registered: 10/21/10
Posts: 4454
Loc: Allardt, TN

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 Originally Posted By: Crappie Luck
Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode

Look at this


http://unskewedpolls.com/all_11_swing_states_unskewed.cfm



NC, VA and FL are all solidly Romney and have been for the last month. Ohio is polling Romney.

LANDSLIDE!
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This fall, FIRE THEM ALL. Re-elect NO ONE!!!!!

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#3010945 - 11/01/12 01:35 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Deer Whisperer]
farmin68
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Registered: 11/08/03
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 Originally Posted By: Deer Whisperer
Most pollsters are taking the raw data and adding 8 points to Obama's side. Now considering that, go back and look at the numbers.


Exactly. This year's polling (in the vast majority of polls) has been based on the 2008 turnout, which saw a highly energized Dem base, and a Rep base that was no longer excited about governing.

The EXACT opposite is happening this year. Hell will have to freeze over for the turnout to match the 2008 election.

Anytime you start getting depressed, just ask yourself some of these questions...

Has Obama gained votes since '08 with ANY age group, faction, race, or either gender?

No. He has lost with every one and any combination of them. The ONLY age group he won in '08 was with 18-29's. MANY of those same voters are now out of college and can't find a job, and much of the rest are STILL under or unemployed. They are not happy with their '08 choice.

Looking back on history, which election does this most remind us of? Carter-Reagan 1980. According to the polls less than two weeks before election day, Carter had a comfortable lead.

The Obumbler admin is Carter's second term and voters are even more upset this time.

One more question to ask yourself; How do Obama's rallies size up compared to 2008? How large are Romney's?

Have faith, folks. Rightfully, we have a long of list of reasons to be worried, but for now I still have faith in enough of the voting population to be somewhat confident and optimistic. That could all change Tuesday night, but I'm confident and faithful at least until then. \:\)

Until then, every one of us should be down on our knees every day! We should be asking God for one more opportunity for our generation to turn this country around, and prayerful that we never make such a mistake again as we did 4 years ago.

_________________________
"FSU blew the coverage and got rewarded for it.” Brian Kelly - NCAA Football Idiot of the Year

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#3010950 - 11/01/12 01:40 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: AndyW]
farmin68
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Registered: 11/08/03
Posts: 13786
Loc: In a tree clinging to my guns ...

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 Originally Posted By: AndyW
 Originally Posted By: Crappie Luck
Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode

Look at this


http://unskewedpolls.com/all_11_swing_states_unskewed.cfm



NC, VA and FL are all solidly Romney and have been for the last month. Ohio is polling Romney.

LANDSLIDE!


Also, Minnesota is no longer 'safe Obama.'
_________________________
"FSU blew the coverage and got rewarded for it.” Brian Kelly - NCAA Football Idiot of the Year

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#3010952 - 11/01/12 01:41 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: farmin68]
waynesworld
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Registered: 05/13/12
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Until then, every one of us should be down on our knees every day! We should be asking God for one more opportunity for our generation to turn this country around, and prayerful that we never make such a mistake again as we did many many years ago.
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#3011153 - 11/01/12 03:37 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: waynesworld]
Pic IN the Casa
TurdFarmer2.0
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Registered: 03/18/11
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 Originally Posted By: waynesworld
Until then, every one of us should be down on our knees every day! We should be asking God for one more opportunity for our generation to turn this country around, and prayerful that we never make such a mistake again as we did many many years ago.


Here, here. Good post.
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#3011188 - 11/01/12 04:04 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Pic IN the Casa]
TOW
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Registered: 06/29/05
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Only ones I trust are Rasmussen and Gallup
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#3011341 - 11/01/12 05:41 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Crappie Luck]
Wildcat
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Registered: 06/10/00
Posts: 42449
Loc: Western Ky.

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 Originally Posted By: Crappie Luck
Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode.



Crappie is 100% right.

Wisconsin was an Obama lock and they pulled out of the state several weeks ago and now thay are having to spend millions in new TV ads in that state as well as send Bill Clinton to help out.

that was suppose to be a lock in but instead of spending more money in Ohio thay are FORCED to spend it in Wisconsin.

That is NOT the only state where Obama is coming apart.
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#3011369 - 11/01/12 05:58 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: TOW]
citico_tim
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Registered: 10/02/02
Posts: 4563
Loc: Knoxville, TN, USA

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 Originally Posted By: TOW
Only ones I trust are Rasmussen and Gallup




You can add Susquehanna Polling & Research to the bunch. They do a lot of PA polling and were the first to predict a Romney surge in PA. Their final poll on PA is Sunday and it will IMO end up being the most accurate predictor of what is going to happen there.

As to some of the others posted, you simply cannot trust PPP. They have been caught making up data before, they are nothing but Dem cheerleaders. And you cannot trust the Marist polls which notoriously give the dems an unrealistic advantage. In their recent polls they are assuming a greater dem turnout than in 2008. That is not going to happen.

Do not assume these groups are polling to actually find the truth. Many are polling with an agenda. Some of it is intended to support the arguement that Republicans are trying to suppress votes. When they come up short they will say "see, racist voter suppression caused Obama to lose." They have to have a reason for losing other than the American people repudiated their ideology.


Even in polls that show Obama up, when you look at the details Republicans are setting records in early voting while the dems are way below their 2008 average. Gallup reports that of those that have already voted it is 52% Romney and 46% Obama. And those who plan to vote on election day it is 51% Romney / 46% Obama. The only issue is with people who haven't voted but plan on voting early: 49% to 49%. But their time is running out.

Lastly, it is worth noting that once again Obama is not enforcing laws to protect the military vote in blue states thereby giving them the opportunity to suppress our military's votes.
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#3011400 - 11/01/12 06:18 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: citico_tim]
sawman
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Registered: 07/07/11
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The last few election cycles the Rasmussen has been the most accurate. Even more so than Gallup. Rasmussen has Romney up in every swing state except Nevada and Wisc. He has him tied in Wisc. For an incumbent president to be in a race this tight this late in the game can only mean hes in deep doodoo
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#3011427 - 11/01/12 06:33 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: sawman]
citico_tim
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Registered: 10/02/02
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 Originally Posted By: sawman
The last few election cycles the Rasmussen has been the most accurate. Even more so than Gallup. Rasmussen has Romney up in every swing state except Nevada and Wisc. He has him tied in Wisc. For an incumbent president to be in a race this tight this late in the game can only mean hes in deep doodoo


And he can't get past 47%. A number that equals the number of Americans getting gubmint checks. Without a strong 3rd party candidate he is going to need more than 47% and simply cannot get there, legally.

I am doing my best to avoid getting my hopes up too much, but WI wasn't supposed to be a swing state and it is actually getting close in Minnesota, Michigan and shocker, even Oregon. And unbelievably he is almost within the margin of error in Connecticut. If the turnout that appears to be coming materializes, it will be a landslide. The real mystery is what will the dems pull in the next 4 days. Expect the unbelievable to surface about Sunday when there won't be time to refute it.
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"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so."

-Thomas Jefferson

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#3011433 - 11/01/12 06:38 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Wildcat]
citico_tim
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Registered: 10/02/02
Posts: 4563
Loc: Knoxville, TN, USA

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 Originally Posted By: Wildcat
 Originally Posted By: Crappie Luck
Don't let it get you down. Obama was 11 points up in Wisconsin two weeks ago. and now he's having to campaign in states that was "His" just last week.

They are in full panic mode.



Crappie is 100% right.

Wisconsin was an Obama lock and they pulled out of the state several weeks ago and now thay are having to spend millions in new TV ads in that state as well as send Bill Clinton to help out.

that was suppose to be a lock in but instead of spending more money in Ohio thay are FORCED to spend it in Wisconsin.

That is NOT the only state where Obama is coming apart.



Romney has money to spare, Obama is taking out loans from the Bank of America. In Ohio Romney is currently spending almost twice what O is spending now and commercials in PA are running 10 to 1 republican. While the dems are having to waste borrowed money on commericals in Detroit. The obvious question is why? If he can't win Detroit, the poster child of progressive policy, he'll make Custer look like a master tactician.
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"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so."

-Thomas Jefferson

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#3011439 - 11/01/12 06:42 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: citico_tim]
Crappie Luck Moderator
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Registered: 01/29/03
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lol
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#3011701 - 11/01/12 08:37 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: Crappie Luck]
TOW
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http://video.foxnews.com/v/1939574254001/
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#3012280 - 11/02/12 08:28 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: TOW]
huntinkev
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Registered: 11/23/06
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I'm getting nervous. I felt much better before this storm. It seems the storm has changed things a bit I don't know. I'll be glad when Wednesday morning gets here.
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#3012316 - 11/02/12 08:45 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: huntinkev]
TOW
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 Originally Posted By: huntinkev
I'm getting nervous. I felt much better before this storm. It seems the storm has changed things a bit I don't know. I'll be glad when Wednesday morning gets here.


Yep... It gave O a chance to "look presidential." Rasmussen now has them tied at 48...
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#3012386 - 11/02/12 09:33 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: TOW]
ratsnakeboogy
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Registered: 08/28/08
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Loc: Andersonville, TN

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Yeah, something doesn't feel right.

I expected the polls to unskew in the final days, they are going the wrong way.

I have a bad feeling.

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#3012455 - 11/02/12 10:07 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: ratsnakeboogy]
preds1
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Registered: 10/16/09
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Meh - the main thing I take from the polls is the number of idiots still out there.
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#3012906 - 11/02/12 03:23 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: preds1]
StalkingWolf
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 1349
Loc: Dyersburg, TN, USA

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Ignore the polls and go vote.
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#3014214 - 11/03/12 04:19 PM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: StalkingWolf]
bassybuck47
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Registered: 08/24/11
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I feel the liberal media skews the polls in a feverish attempt to sway the undecided voters in the direction of the candidate it appears is winning. Trying to gain the bandwagon votes... JMHO.
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Genesis 27:3 KJV: Now therefore take, I pray thee, thy weapons, thy quiver and thy bow, and go out to the field, and take me some venison...

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#3020529 - 11/07/12 06:20 AM Re: Latest swing state polls - Nov 1 [Re: farmin68]
Dale3
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Registered: 09/14/03
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Loc: Live in Mt.Juliet ,Hunt Jackso...

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humm, looks like Vermin93 and me were right to worry bout the polls. Sorry like and understand what all were saying, but just funny to me how polls were great when Romney was leading , then polls were rigged when he was losing.
Make all those so called expert look like fools, Fox should fire them all, and the LANDSLIDERS for Romney should be banished from the USA
Be fun to see them all eating crow today, but i guess most are to hung up on themselves, and will make excusses for themselves.
They have realy made the MSM look cerdible.
Karl Rove and crew, looked like and were proven to be fools last night.
Andy, your no expert, but hope you found a cup, at least you dont got to swap spit Todd( i wish you did).I Think i'd rather be kicked in the in jewls and be wrong than to swap spit with a camo clad TNdeer hunter.
Hey what the heck you got the landslide right.


Edited by Dale3 (11/07/12 06:31 AM)

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