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#2939356 - 09/11/12 10:07 AM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: tellico4x4]
Andy S.
TnDeer Old Timer
14 Point


Registered: 07/26/99
Posts: 7851
Loc: Atoka, TN

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 Originally Posted By: tellico4x4
I've gotten where I don't pay any attention to the Weather Channel anymore...
Very smart move on your part.
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Andy S.

If I had saved all the money I spent on hunting, I'd spend it on hunting.

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#2939529 - 09/11/12 12:44 PM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: tellico4x4]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 65010
Loc: Nashville, TN

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 Originally Posted By: tellico4x4
 Originally Posted By: BSK
Although there is a moderate chance of light showers Saturday, it looks like the next substantial rain won't get here until the following Thursday (9/20).


I know that you look at several different models to make your predictions, but it's amazing how Accuweather's long range forecast seems to be spot on here lately. I've gotten where I don't pay any attention to the Weather Channel anymore...


The Weather Channel is the worst at forecasting. Accuweather is OK, but not anywhere near as good as just the raw model data. All these forecasting groups use the same model data, but then interpret it using their own methods. Their accuracy would go up dramatically if they would just use the raw model data without manipulating it further.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#2939549 - 09/11/12 01:05 PM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: BSK]
JCDEERMAN
14 Point


Registered: 07/19/08
Posts: 8402
Loc: NASHVILLE, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
 Originally Posted By: tellico4x4
 Originally Posted By: BSK
Although there is a moderate chance of light showers Saturday, it looks like the next substantial rain won't get here until the following Thursday (9/20).


I know that you look at several different models to make your predictions, but it's amazing how Accuweather's long range forecast seems to be spot on here lately. I've gotten where I don't pay any attention to the Weather Channel anymore...


The Weather Channel is the worst at forecasting. Accuweather is OK, but not anywhere near as good as just the raw model data. All these forecasting groups use the same model data, but then interpret it using their own methods. Their accuracy would go up dramatically if they would just use the raw model data without manipulating it further.


Bryan, is this a stupid question:

Where do you find the raw model data?
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#2939678 - 09/11/12 02:38 PM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: JCDEERMAN]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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You can find it many places, but I prefer using the College of DuPage website. Of all of the models available, I prefer the GFS model.

http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#2939734 - 09/11/12 03:28 PM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: BSK]
JCDEERMAN
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Registered: 07/19/08
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Loc: NASHVILLE, TN

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Thank you very much, sir!
_________________________
Be nervous, but fear no one

In God we trust

God bless the USA!

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#2939864 - 09/11/12 05:34 PM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: BSK]
Trapper John
TnDeer Old Timer
16 Point


Registered: 03/13/99
Posts: 11778
Loc: La Vergne,TN/Decaturville, TN

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
Although there is a moderate chance of light showers Saturday, it looks like the next substantial rain won't get here until the following Thursday (9/20).


If that works out, it would actually be perfect for me.

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#2939973 - 09/11/12 07:20 PM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: Trapper John]
JCDEERMAN
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Registered: 07/19/08
Posts: 8402
Loc: NASHVILLE, TN

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 Originally Posted By: Trapper John
 Originally Posted By: BSK
Although there is a moderate chance of light showers Saturday, it looks like the next substantial rain won't get here until the following Thursday (9/20).


If that works out, it would actually be perfect for me.


I would LOVE LOVE LOVE for it to rain thursday and friday before bow season. Although, there would probably be 3X's as many acorns on the ground. Areas scouted for specific trees would be extinguished due to many other trees dropping. But it looks like it will cool off afterwards \:\)
_________________________
Be nervous, but fear no one

In God we trust

God bless the USA!

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#2940491 - 09/12/12 06:54 AM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: JCDEERMAN]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 65010
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Always "iffy" to trust the models out at 8-10 days, but currently they suggest a powerful cold front coming through for opening day.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#2940813 - 09/12/12 11:31 AM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: BSK]
Football Hunter
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Registered: 10/22/07
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Loc: Wilson Co/Perry Co

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 Originally Posted By: BSK
Always "iffy" to trust the models out at 8-10 days, but currently they suggest a powerful cold front coming through for opening day.
Yeah,I trust em more about 3 to 4 days out.
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The best day to plant a tree,IS TODAY!

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#2940837 - 09/12/12 11:50 AM Re: Plant before Friday night [Re: Football Hunter]
BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
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Loc: Nashville, TN

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 Originally Posted By: Football Hunter
 Originally Posted By: BSK
Always "iffy" to trust the models out at 8-10 days, but currently they suggest a powerful cold front coming through for opening day.
Yeah,I trust em more about 3 to 4 days out.


The accuracy out to about 7 days has gotten remarkably better in the last few years, but if you watch the models daily, you would find a lot of differences in the forecasts in the 8-10 day range each day, indicating major changes in the outcome of the computations for each model run.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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