#1985541 - 07/08/10 07:44 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: Wes Parrish]
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BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
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If we went from a 10% harvest of 3 1/2-yr-old bucks to a 12% harvest of 3 1/2-yr-old bucks, some could chime that's only 2 percentage points more. True, but going from 10 to 12 is an increase of 20% more, i.e. 20% more hunters would be killing one.
Percentages are deceiving. That 20% increase still only works out to 15-20 more 3 1/2+ year-old bucks killed per county per year.
Now personally, I believe that's a good thing. However, in real-world numbers, it's not a huge difference.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan
"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James
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#1985548 - 07/08/10 07:47 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: Beekeeper]
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BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Is the age structure of the Bucks in the Deer Herd indicative of the overall health of the Deer Herd or is it just an indicator of a Deer Herd managed for older Deer?
First, we're not talking about the age structure of the buck population, we're talking about the age structure of the harvested bucks. However, the two should go hand in hand.
An older buck age structure is good for the herd. It helps the herd function as Nature intended. An older buck age structure is also good for hunters, as more older/larger bucks exist for harvest.
If a lower Buck limit doesn’t improve the overall health of the Deer Herd, why do so many people keep proposing it? Is it just to help them see and/or kill older Deer?
The problem with that idea is the concept that a lower buck limit would appreciably increase the buck age structure. I think the evidence for that is dubious.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan
"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James
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#1985677 - 07/08/10 09:14 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: BSK]
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mathews338
10 Point
Registered: 11/05/09
Posts: 3990
Loc: jackson co.
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If we went from a 10% harvest of 3 1/2-yr-old bucks to a 12% harvest of 3 1/2-yr-old bucks, some could chime that's only 2 percentage points more. True, but going from 10 to 12 is an increase of 20% more, i.e. 20% more hunters would be killing one. Percentages are deceiving. That 20% increase still only works out to 15-20 more 3 1/2+ year-old bucks killed per county per year. Now personally, I believe that's a good thing. However, in real-world numbers, it's not a huge difference.
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#1985759 - 07/08/10 10:16 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: BSK]
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Wes Parrish
16 Point
Registered: 06/12/02
Posts: 16993
Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN
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That 20% increase still only works out to 15-20 more 3 1/2+ year-old bucks killed per county per year.
. . . . . in real-world numbers, it's not a huge difference.
I know someone who only makes a small salary.
She very excited about getting a 20% pay raise.
It could be pointed out that this 20% pay raise ONLY raised her daily pay by ONLY $15.
Had she been making a larger salary and received a 20% raise, would have been more dollars,
but 20% remains 20%, and most would consider that "significant".
As to what any one of us consider "significant",
that may largely DEPEND on our previous frames of reference and personal opinions.
Percentages are deceiving.
I disagree.
I think it's more a case of most people never learning what percentages mean.
Percentages are absolute (nothing deceiving about them).
Doesn't matter if we're working with small numbers or large numbers.
A 100-lb little lady gains 20 lbs, then she's gained 20%.
A 200-lb man gains 20 lbs, then he's gained 10%.
But if a 20-lb child gains 20 lbs, he's gained 100%.
Yet, we're only talking about "20 units of change" in each scenario.
More significant than the numbers gained or lost
is the percentage of change. If a county had an increase of 20% more 3 1/2-yr-old bucks ---- that tells us something meaningful.
If you say a county only had 20 more bucks, that tells us little in terms of significance.
i bet the 15-20 hunters that got those bucks think it is a huge difference . . . .
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#1985786 - 07/08/10 10:33 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: Wes Parrish]
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Wes Parrish
16 Point
Registered: 06/12/02
Posts: 16993
Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN
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Let's say the average county was only averaging killing 5 bucks annually that were fully mature at 5 1/2 years old or older.
If changes were implemented, which over a few years, resulted in the average county killing "only" 25 fully mature bucks annually
. . . . . . hey, we're only talking 20 more . . . . . . .
Assuming other factors remained stable (i.e. the number of hunters, etc.), would not the average hunter's opportunity for taking a fully mature buck have increased 400%?
Is that significant?
It's the difference in killing one once every 25 years
vs. once every 5 years.
But, hey, it's only 20 years. 
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#1985816 - 07/08/10 11:01 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: mathews338]
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BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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If we went from a 10% harvest of 3 1/2-yr-old bucks to a 12% harvest of 3 1/2-yr-old bucks, some could chime that's only 2 percentage points more. True, but going from 10 to 12 is an increase of 20% more, i.e. 20% more hunters would be killing one. Percentages are deceiving. That 20% increase still only works out to 15-20 more 3 1/2+ year-old bucks killed per county per year. Now personally, I believe that's a good thing. However, in real-world numbers, it's not a huge difference. i bet the 15-20 hunters that got those bucks think it is a huge difference and as Wes pointed out that number could get much higher in the years that follow
True, but those increases won't be because of changes in limits. It will be just the natural progression of the buck population.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan
"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James
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#1985818 - 07/08/10 11:03 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: Wes Parrish]
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BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
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Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 59553
Loc: Nashville, TN
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Let's say the average county was only averaging killing 5 bucks annually that were fully mature at 5 1/2 years old or older.
If changes were implemented, which over a few years, resulted in the average county killing "only" 25 fully mature bucks annually
. . . . . . hey, we're only talking 20 more . . . . . . .
That scenario wouldn't happen.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan
"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James
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#1985821 - 07/08/10 11:04 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: Wes Parrish]
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jb3
10 Point
Registered: 02/23/09
Posts: 3314
Loc: Burns, TN
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Are people wanting to change the limit so they can kill older deer, larger racked deer or are they wanting the change because the deer population is in need of a change?
Guess I'm asking is the limit change for hunters or the deer? To me it seems the deer herd is in good shape. I'm not a biologist, so I'm just taking a wild guess, but kill numbers look good, herd seems to be healthy. Seems like the limit that is set seems to be controlling and keeping the deer population in good health.
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#1985823 - 07/08/10 11:07 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: BSK]
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Wes Parrish
16 Point
Registered: 06/12/02
Posts: 16993
Loc: Knoxville-Dover-Union City, TN
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That scenario wouldn't happen.
I have no idea whether it ever will or will not.
But it COULD happen.
After all, we're only talking 20 more bucks in an entire county.
First, I'm not seeing any great push to change the buck limits in any direction.
But if we want to discuss changes worthy of consideration and why, then few have more merit than simultaneously increasing antlerless deer opportunities by one (1) . . . . mainly for the "average" hunter . . . . while decreasing the buck limit by one (1).
Are people wanting to change the limit so they can kill older deer, larger racked deer or are they wanting the change because the deer population is in need of a change?
There are more reasons than just the answers to the questions you ask, although most hunters would prefer to be able to kill more older deer and more larger racked deer, would they not?
How about allowing more hunters the opportunity to kill a single deer, regardless of that deer's age or antlers?
This is not just an issue about the opportunity to kill 2 bucks vs. killing 3 bucks, noting that less than half of all TN deer hunters even average killing a single deer annually, much less a buck.
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#1985824 - 07/08/10 11:08 AM
Re: Why a limit change?
[Re: BSK]
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BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
Non-Typical
Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 59553
Loc: Nashville, TN
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Sure, you can also say 1 extra buck killed sure made that one hunter happy. But spread over 220,000 hunters?
15-20 extra 3 1/2+ year-old bucks spread over 285,000 acres (the average size of a TN county) still isn't a BIG difference. We're talking about only 1 extra 3 1/2+ buck killed for every 16,500 acres.
As I've said many times. I'm glad we changed the limit and I think it has helped, although more in hunter mindset than actual limiting buck harvest.
The limit change made a difference, but not a BIG difference.
_________________________
"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan
"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James
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