#1979771 - 07/01/10 05:50 AM
percentage/ratio question........
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Bottom Hunter
16 Point
Registered: 12/29/06
Posts: 15480
Loc: Hatchie Bottoms
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When a doe is bred, there should be a 50% chance that she will have a buck, right?
If the odds play fair , then 50% of all deer born are bucks and 50% are does? Am I correct so far?
If predators take a certain number of these new borns, would they target young does more than young bucks? probably not, right? The same goes for disease or any other natural causes of death to these deer.
Without man, natural selection would keep things in order, right?
Even road kills are not buck or doe specific....are they?
Are there any doe specific diseases?
Some bucks die in breeding battles, and some does die during fawn birth or soon there after for various reasons, I'm sure.
I guess what I getting at is that the way a deer herd gets out of balance is mainly due to man, right? The taking of too many bucks versus does is the main cog in the mechanism...?
What would have happened if the limits had been more liberal back when there were fewer deer? What if when the TWRA first opened a deer season, it was doe or buck and not just buck only? And would the herd ratio been different today if the TWRA and the hunters themselves decided that does needed to be taken out just as much as bucks do?
I remember hearing people say things like..."There are too many does, they need to thin them out." I remember seeing herds of 20 plus does back in the 70s and 80s, most times not a buck in the bunch.
Did we (hunters/TWRA)drop the ball on this one? Should we have done more before the buck/doe ratio got so out of whack that we needed to open a one doe per day season in some counties of Tn....?
Just sitting here thinking about how man often tries to "undo" what he caused in the first place. This seems to be just another example......
thanks for any input
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#1979785 - 07/01/10 05:58 AM
Re: percentage/ratio question........
[Re: Bottom Hunter]
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Mike Belt
TnDeer Old Timer
16 Point
Registered: 03/26/99
Posts: 16930
Loc: Lakeland, Tn.
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I think the birth ratio favors bucks by a percent or so???? Also bucks are more prone to death from fighting and rut related stress. Buck fawns are more curious and adventuresome than does and face hazarrds the does don't. Then you can factor in buck dispersal. Odds stack up against them.
As far as the rest goes, we could always have done something sooner. Once man sticks his finger in the pie something is always going to be affected. It's the timing of reactions that create consequences we have to deal with.
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#1979811 - 07/01/10 06:25 AM
Re: percentage/ratio question........
[Re: Mike Belt]
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ghosthunter
10 Point
Registered: 11/30/04
Posts: 3446
Loc: chattanooga
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That logic definitely makes sense to me. I think in the beginning of the deer restoration days, the buck to do ratio wasn't a goal. Probably just having huntable populations of deer was the goal. Once the desired population was acheived, then the fine tuning can begin, which is where we've been for some time. Now, I didn't hunt in the 70's and 80's, so I can't attest to the doe population in areas needing a thinning, but I've heard many stories about how many deer you would see up on Carter mtn every time you would go out. Mother nature took care of that problem by disease. But, obviously man plays a role in the buck to doe ratio balance. If more bucks are killed, then the doe pop is greater than the buck pop. It's just simple math.
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#1979869 - 07/01/10 07:39 AM
Re: percentage/ratio question........
[Re: ghosthunter]
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BigGameGuy
TWRA Biologist
12 Point
Registered: 05/14/04
Posts: 6353
Loc: Nashville
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One thing to remember is that everything will balance out within a "deer generation" (roughly 5-7 years). In other words, the amount of deer in one gender or the other won't stockpile. What this means is we could go thirty years killing every buck we see and no does. And that literally was what was happening in the early days of restoration. It wouldn't take 30 years to "make it right". It would only take about 5-7 years of 50-50 harvest to balance everything out. We've been in the mid-40% doe harvest range for over a decade now.
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If given the choice between education and regulation, I'll choose education every time.
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#1979919 - 07/01/10 08:35 AM
Re: percentage/ratio question........
[Re: Bottom Hunter]
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BSK
Jerkasourous of the non-typical kind
Non-Typical
Registered: 03/11/99
Posts: 59548
Loc: Nashville, TN
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When a doe is bred, there should be a 50% chance that she will have a buck, right?
If the odds play fair , then 50% of all deer born are bucks and 50% are does? Am I correct so far?
When very large fetal sex ratio data sets are compiled, the numbers usually come out at 54% male, 46% female. It has been conjectured that this higher percentage of male offspring is Nature's way of compensating for the higher natural mortality rate of adult bucks.
However, some studies have found highly skewed fetal sex ratios in localized areas. This suggests Nature has a way of compensating for localized problems. Unfortunately, the "mechanism" by which Nature accomplishes has not been discovered, even though this process has been researched in some detail.
I guess what I getting at is that the way a deer herd gets out of balance is mainly due to man, right? The taking of too many bucks versus does is the main cog in the mechanism...?
Correct. But as BGG pointed out, it only takes one generation of deer to put sex ratios back in order.
What would have happened if the limits had been more liberal back when there were fewer deer?
The repopulation of our state's deer herds would have been slowed considerably.
Did we (hunters/TWRA)drop the ball on this one?
No, but some Southeastern state agencies/hunters were slow to see the herd over-population problems coming. Luckily, TN didn't have to experience that. Our state's populations--in most areas--were caught before they became a major problem. The same cannot be said for some of the Deep South states, especially AL and SC. Over-population and resulting severe habitat damage were commonplace in those states before doe harvest liberalization was implemented and embraced by hunters.
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"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James
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#1979965 - 07/01/10 09:08 AM
Re: percentage/ratio question........
[Re: BSK]
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fishboy1
14 Point
Registered: 01/13/03
Posts: 9703
Loc: Warren Co
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I read somewhere that there is approx 50/50% chance of buck if the doe is bred at first estrous.
IF she isn't bred the first month, then there is something like a 75% chance it will be a buck if she is bred during her second estrous period. I think the % chance of being a buck is even higher if she is not bred until her 3rd estrous period.
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