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#1706382 - 01/04/10 11:23 AM TWRA graphs
AlanP
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There have been discussions, on several threads, about TWRA graphs of harvest data. Let me post a couple so everyone gets some idea of what we're talking about. The following are all statewide graphs. We also have individual graphs for most counties:
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#1706383 - 01/04/10 11:23 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706385 - 01/04/10 11:28 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706386 - 01/04/10 11:28 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706388 - 01/04/10 11:29 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706390 - 01/04/10 11:30 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706392 - 01/04/10 11:30 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706393 - 01/04/10 11:31 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706394 - 01/04/10 11:32 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706396 - 01/04/10 11:32 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706397 - 01/04/10 11:32 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706398 - 01/04/10 11:33 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706399 - 01/04/10 11:33 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
Setterman
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Alan, what do you all think caused the spike in 1.5 year olds in 2005? That is a pretty big jump and seemingly temporary. Graphs look good IMO, especially with the 2.5 getting close to being even with 1.5 year old bucks.
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#1706402 - 01/04/10 11:34 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706405 - 01/04/10 11:36 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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#1706406 - 01/04/10 11:37 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
AlanP
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sorry, posted this one twice

Edited by AlanP (01/04/10 12:20 PM)
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#1706417 - 01/04/10 11:45 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Setterman]
AlanP
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 Originally Posted By: Setterman
Alan, what do you all think caused the spike in 1.5 year olds in 2005? That is a pretty big jump and seemingly temporary. Graphs look good IMO, especially with the 2.5 getting close to being even with 1.5 year old bucks.


I don't have an explanation. But, I try not to worry about a one year jump. Sorry some of the graphs are hard to read. I should have made them larger before I put them into photobucket. I think the big jump was actually in 2006, if I can read the charts correctly. If you look at the chart with harvest by antler points, the jump consisted mostly of a jump in the number of "5 and 6 point" bucks. Who knows? Maybe that summer had a lot of good weather, nutritious food, and there were a bunch of yearlings that grew branched antlers (instead of spikes), so hunters didn't pass them up.

Or, maybe, it was just a random fluctuation.
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#1706429 - 01/04/10 11:52 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
mcnairy mike
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Thanks for info its very interesting to see percentage in does taken having a positive effect on buck maturity.
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#1706433 - 01/04/10 11:55 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: mcnairy mike]
mcnairy mike
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I think twra is right on target with its rules and regs. I hope they never set a ridiculous spread and point requirements like our neighbors to the south
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#1706434 - 01/04/10 11:56 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
Winchester
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Basically we are just cruising right along. If it wasnt for the major rule changes made statewide in 1998, these graphs would be very little to talk about, as things have went pretty steady across the board otherwise for many years before 2007. This is where we started downhill again, and it will be interesting to see if the declines continue??
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#1706435 - 01/04/10 11:56 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: mcnairy mike]
Football Hunter
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Why such a big jump in 97?WOW people went cray killing deer that year
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#1706438 - 01/04/10 11:57 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Football Hunter]
Winchester
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 Originally Posted By: Football Hunter
Why such a big jump in 97?WOW people went cray killing deer that year

98 was the year we went from 11 bucks to 2!

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#1706447 - 01/04/10 12:01 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: mcnairy mike]
mcnairy mike
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We lose enough hunters every year as it is and that would take away from hunters their personal choice because all people see on tv is HORNS and they will shoot a deer at dark( like in texas) and come back next day to spoiled meat just for the horns. I will have a hard time selling that to myself.
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#1706498 - 01/04/10 12:21 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Winchester]
tndrbstr
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 Originally Posted By: Winchester
as things have went pretty steady across the board otherwise for many years before 2007. This is where we started downhill again, and it will be interesting to see if the declines continue??


EHD?....and freaky weather...

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#1706514 - 01/04/10 12:32 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Winchester]
megalomaniac
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 Originally Posted By: Winchester
Basically we are just cruising right along. If it wasnt for the major rule changes made statewide in 1998, these graphs would be very little to talk about, as things have went pretty steady across the board otherwise for many years before 2007. This is where we started downhill again, and it will be interesting to see if the declines continue??


There are fewer deer out there, therefore decreased harvest of all age-classes number wise.

EHD took out a bunch, then 2 yrs of consecutive drought has hurt recruitment.

Personally, I'm sticking to my long-term game plan...

So far, 12 does and 2 bucks off my farms.

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#1706521 - 01/04/10 12:36 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: megalomaniac]
tndrbstr
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 Originally Posted By: megalomaniac
 Originally Posted By: Winchester
Basically we are just cruising right along. If it wasnt for the major rule changes made statewide in 1998, these graphs would be very little to talk about, as things have went pretty steady across the board otherwise for many years before 2007. This is where we started downhill again, and it will be interesting to see if the declines continue??


There are fewer deer out there, therefore decreased harvest of all age-classes number wise.

EHD took out a bunch, then 2 yrs of consecutive drought has hurt recruitment.

Personally, I'm sticking to my long-term game plan...

So far, 12 does and 2 bucks off my farms.


If this weather pattern that we had this season continues (09) for the next two or three,.. things could rebound damaticly....

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#1706531 - 01/04/10 12:40 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: megalomaniac]
AlanP
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There is a lot of information in those graphs. And, there are different ways to interpret what some of them mean. For instance...

One graph shows the percentage of button bucks, in the antlerless harvest, is declining. Is that because hunters are passing up button bucks, or is it because the number of fawns born/surviving is declining? Are coyotes taking a higher percentage of fawns, or, since the deer population is higher than it was decades ago, are does not having as many babies? There is room for a lot of arguments in these graphs.
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#1706546 - 01/04/10 12:45 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
CopperHead77
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Looks like the #of 3.5's being taken is steadily climbing,I guess one could assume the # of 4.5's and older might also be climbing?
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#1706554 - 01/04/10 12:48 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
Winchester
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 Quote:
There is room for a lot of arguments in these graphs.

Amen to that, the #'s can be made to look many many different ways as well. The Data and graphs are great, but they can and will be interpreted in so many different ways, even by those working together! ;\)

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#1706648 - 01/04/10 01:40 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Winchester]
Setterman
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If 1.5's decline to meet 2.5 harvest, then inevitably 3.5 harvests should rise as well.

It is surprising to me that this year with the increase in buck tags that the 1.5 year old harvest has not increased, and last I checked it was lower then last year which is good news.

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#1706685 - 01/04/10 02:04 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Setterman]
AlanP
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To me, it is obvious from the first few graphs I posted, hunters in Tennessee are voluntarily passing up spikes, 3 and 4s, and (to a lesser extent) 5 and 6s. They do not pass up anything with 7 or more points, and those harvest numbers continue rising. The trend of passing little antlers is continuing, and shows no sign of changing.
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#1706701 - 01/04/10 02:14 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
Winchester
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It appears that the # of 1.5 yr old bucks being harvested is dropping, and contradictory to this happening, the # of 3.5's being killed is dropping as well.
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#1706709 - 01/04/10 02:19 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Winchester]
RecurveShooter
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Keep in mind that this years data is not in these graphs. It is only up to the 08/09 season. This years data won't be complete until the end of the month. The graphs can be updated and reposted again at that point.

Edited by RecurveShooter (01/04/10 02:20 PM)

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#1706710 - 01/04/10 02:19 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Setterman]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: Setterman
If 1.5's decline to meet 2.5 harvest, then inevitably 3.5 harvests should rise as well.


In theory, true. However, in reality that may not be the case.


 Quote:
It is surprising to me that this year with the increase in buck tags that the 1.5 year old harvest has not increased...


You aren't the only one who's surprised!

And the fact it looks like we've killed the oldest class of bucks ever in TN--after raising the limit--is a head-scratcher to say the least.
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#1706712 - 01/04/10 02:21 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Winchester]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: Winchester
It appears that the # of 1.5 yr old bucks being harvested is dropping, and contradictory to this happening, the # of 3.5's being killed is dropping as well.


As of the preliminary data, it appears TN hunters this year killed the largest number of 3 1/2+ bucks ever, and by a large margin.
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#1706713 - 01/04/10 02:21 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: RecurveShooter]
Winchester
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 Originally Posted By: RecurveShooter
Keep in mind that this years data is not in these graphs. It is only up to the 08/09 season. This years data won't be complete until the end of the month. The graphs can be updated and reposted again at that point.

Yep, and looking at this years #'s we have some new changes, like the older buck kill going up instead of down again.

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#1706736 - 01/04/10 02:34 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
Setterman
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 Originally Posted By: AlanP
To me, it is obvious from the first few graphs I posted, hunters in Tennessee are voluntarily passing up spikes, 3 and 4s, and (to a lesser extent) 5 and 6s. They do not pass up anything with 7 or more points, and those harvest numbers continue rising. The trend of passing little antlers is continuing, and shows no sign of changing.



I wonder if the folks who are focusing on 7's or better are thinking they are targeting mature deer, while in reality they are harvesting sub-mature deer with quality racks? If they knew better they might let these walk, or maybe not.

Whatever, the trend this season is a good one, and maybe the ultra wet summer allowed for more bucks to grow an extra little bit, and that is all it could take for folks to begin to focus on larger more mature bucks.

Who knows, but from the field time I have spent last summer and this fall, the herd seems to be in great shape, other then being a little heavy on does.

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#1706746 - 01/04/10 02:41 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Setterman]
RecurveShooter
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I think most tn hunters are are perfectly happy with 2.5 yr-old 7 and 8pt bucks.
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#1706814 - 01/04/10 03:26 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: RecurveShooter]
Tree Tramp
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 Originally Posted By: RecurveShooter
I think most tn hunters are are perfectly happy with 2.5 yr-old 7 and 8pt bucks.


Nope

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#1706854 - 01/04/10 03:49 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: BSK]
Yodel Dog
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 Originally Posted By: BSK

 Quote:
It is surprising to me that this year with the increase in buck tags that the 1.5 year old harvest has not increased...


You aren't the only one who's surprised!

And the fact it looks like we've killed the oldest class of bucks ever in TN--after raising the limit--is a head-scratcher to say the least.


It could have a lot to do with the way the data was collected. How many days a year is TWRA aging bucks at check-in stations? What period of the season is this aging being done? I understand the whole idea of "sampling", but there's no way this data is accurate.
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#1706868 - 01/04/10 03:56 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Yodel Dog]
mcnairy mike
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Hunting in mcnairy co. and we used to have university of memphis students at checking stations with twra collecting data have not seen that in years
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#1707060 - 01/04/10 05:36 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Setterman]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: Setterman
 Originally Posted By: AlanP
To me, it is obvious from the first few graphs I posted, hunters in Tennessee are voluntarily passing up spikes, 3 and 4s, and (to a lesser extent) 5 and 6s. They do not pass up anything with 7 or more points, and those harvest numbers continue rising. The trend of passing little antlers is continuing, and shows no sign of changing.



I wonder if the folks who are focusing on 7's or better are thinking they are targeting mature deer, while in reality they are harvesting sub-mature deer with quality racks? If they knew better they might let these walk, or maybe not.


The only way to know would be to look at the TWRA aged bucks. Is the harvest of 7+ point yearlings continuing to increase as fast as 7+ point 2 1/2+ year-old bucks? Or is the continuing increase in 7+ point bucks harvested simply due to the increased kill of 2 1/2+ bucks (which are more likely to have 7+ points)?


 Quote:
...are thinking they are targeting mature deer...

...If they knew better they might let these walk...

...and that is all it could take for folks to begin to focus on larger more mature bucks.


Let's hope a large number of hunters don't begin to focus ONLY on mature bucks. That would be a recipe for disaster. First, there would be even more disappointed hunters (those are tough bucks to kill), and these bucks only make up a tiny portion of any herd, no matter the age structure. Eventually, herd density would become a problem. Even trophy ranches have to harvest a good number of sub-mature bucks to keep population density in line.

The only QDM "failures" I've seen came from hunters setting their sights to high. They simply weren't prepared for the effort required to kill only mature bucks.
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#1707071 - 01/04/10 05:39 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Yodel Dog]
BSK
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 Originally Posted By: Yodel Dog
 Originally Posted By: BSK

 Quote:
It is surprising to me that this year with the increase in buck tags that the 1.5 year old harvest has not increased...


You aren't the only one who's surprised!

And the fact it looks like we've killed the oldest class of bucks ever in TN--after raising the limit--is a head-scratcher to say the least.


It could have a lot to do with the way the data was collected. How many days a year is TWRA aging bucks at check-in stations? What period of the season is this aging being done? I understand the whole idea of "sampling", but there's no way this data is accurate.


I've looked at the data collected at the check station by the TWRA, looked at data from check stations not monitored by the TWRA, and then looked at data from all other times of the hunting season besides the times the TWRA was manning the check stations. If any bias in the TWRA-collected buck age data exists, it appears to be towards the young side. The data suggests the weekends the TWRA collects data produces the youngest age-class of bucks harvested.
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"Know where you stand, and stand there" --Jesuit Father Daniel Berrigan

"There is no reasoning someone out of a position he has not reasoned himself into." --Clive James

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#1707111 - 01/04/10 05:53 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: BSK]
Yodel Dog
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 Originally Posted By: BSK
I've looked at the data collected at the check station by the TWRA, looked at data from check stations not monitored by the TWRA, and then looked at data from all other times of the hunting season besides the times the TWRA was manning the check stations. If any bias in the TWRA-collected buck age data exists, it appears to be towards the young side. The data suggests the weekends the TWRA collects data produces the youngest age-class of bucks harvested.


Who's collecting this data?
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#1707281 - 01/04/10 07:04 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Yodel Dog]
chip
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How many deer were actually aged out of the total harvest ?
I doubt very many!!!!

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#1707325 - 01/04/10 07:20 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: chip]
RecurveShooter
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So far this year our age data is from 3,063 bucks. Last year's (2008-09) sample size was 4,061. The year before(2007-08) was 3,427.

https://hfwa.centraltechnology.net/TNHFInternetHarvest/app/statewideReportSearch.do

It has been the same data collection method for over 20 years.


Edited by RecurveShooter (01/04/10 07:21 PM)

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#1707396 - 01/04/10 07:39 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: chip]
nate17
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 Originally Posted By: chip
How many deer were actually aged out of the total harvest ?
I doubt very many!!!!


It doesn't really matter as long as you have a random, non biased sample.

Judging from recurves numbers, i'd say thats more than plenty.

If you want to see this number climb, make an extra effort to take your deer to a check station you know TWRA is at. If you dont know one, give your region a call, im sure they would be more than happy to provide you with a list.


Edited by nate17 (01/04/10 07:47 PM)

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#1708120 - 01/05/10 08:32 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Yodel Dog]
AlanP
TWRA Biologist
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 Originally Posted By: Yodel Dog
 Originally Posted By: BSK

 Quote:
It is surprising to me that this year with the increase in buck tags that the 1.5 year old harvest has not increased...


You aren't the only one who's surprised!

And the fact it looks like we've killed the oldest class of bucks ever in TN--after raising the limit--is a head-scratcher to say the least.


It could have a lot to do with the way the data was collected. How many days a year is TWRA aging bucks at check-in stations? What period of the season is this aging being done? I understand the whole idea of "sampling", but there's no way this data is accurate.


I'm curious... Why do you believe "there's no way this data is accurate"?
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#1708159 - 01/05/10 08:49 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
Yodel Dog
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 Originally Posted By: AlanP
 Originally Posted By: Yodel Dog
 Originally Posted By: BSK

 Quote:
It is surprising to me that this year with the increase in buck tags that the 1.5 year old harvest has not increased...


You aren't the only one who's surprised!

And the fact it looks like we've killed the oldest class of bucks ever in TN--after raising the limit--is a head-scratcher to say the least.


It could have a lot to do with the way the data was collected. How many days a year is TWRA aging bucks at check-in stations? What period of the season is this aging being done? I understand the whole idea of "sampling", but there's no way this data is accurate.


I'm curious... Why do you believe "there's no way this data is accurate"?


 Originally Posted By: BSK
Data is only as conclusive as the method used to collect the data and the amount of data. Data collection on a massive scale will give you a clearer picture of what is going on than just a little data collected.....


I'm not saying how far off your numbers are, all I'm saying is they are not accurate unless you age every buck harvested, which we both know is not possible.


Edited by Yodel Dog (01/05/10 08:52 AM)
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#1708172 - 01/05/10 08:53 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Yodel Dog]
tndrbstr
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 Originally Posted By: Yodel Dog
 Originally Posted By: BSK
Data is only as conclusive as the method used to collect the data and the amount of data. Data collection on a massive scale will give you a clearer picture of what is going on than just a little data collected.....



BSK stated a clearer picture...not necessarily a differant picture...

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#1708192 - 01/05/10 09:02 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: tndrbstr]
The Buck Machine
4 Point


Registered: 12/11/09
Posts: 167
Loc: Tennessee

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Very interesting data!
_________________________
What a pepper!

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#1708243 - 01/05/10 09:45 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: The Buck Machine]
Hangnail
12 Point


Registered: 11/30/00
Posts: 6021
Loc: Murfreesboro, TN

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Dang Yodel, I bet you'd argue with your doctor on whether your blood pressure is high or not. Are YOU willing to age deer every weekend instead of hunting? Maybe there's a couple of hundred hunters just like you that will donate their time off to fondle jawbones so we can all get an accurate view of the deer herd in Tennessee. Sounds like a plan.
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#1708275 - 01/05/10 09:58 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Yodel Dog]
Hillbilly Hunter
Killbilly
16 Point


Registered: 07/15/05
Posts: 16982
Loc: Branchville

Offline
 Originally Posted By: Yodel Dog
I'm not saying how far off your numbers are, all I'm saying is they are not accurate unless you age every buck harvested, which we both know is not possible.


there is no need to age every deer. I am willing to bet that the harvest age would change more than a couple or percentage points if every deer was aged.
_________________________
...they never call me by my name, just Hillbilly...


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#1708336 - 01/05/10 10:37 AM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: AlanP]
mcnairy mike
Spike


Registered: 12/28/09
Posts: 48
Loc: west tenn

Offline
I can't believe you run a responsible wildlife agency without data and charts. It's called science. Mississippi doesn't even check deer so everyone is on the good ole boy honor system. how do they compose data? Do they call you on the cellphone? I have hunted in multiple states including colorado and I will put twra up their with the best of them. I applaude all efforts made to keep a healthy herd.
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#1708529 - 01/05/10 12:23 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: mcnairy mike]
nate17
8 Point


Registered: 08/06/09
Posts: 1154
Loc: Illinois

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 Originally Posted By: mcnairy mike
I can't believe you run a responsible wildlife agency without data and charts. It's called science. I will put twra up their with the best of them. I applaude all efforts made to keep a healthy herd.


I couldn't agree more!

I wish these guys that spend all their time complaing spent half that time asking theirselves what can I do to help out? Pointing fingers is taking the easy way out.

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#1708738 - 01/05/10 02:31 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: BSK]
Setterman
8 Point


Registered: 12/31/09
Posts: 1783
Loc: Knoxville, TN

Offline
 Originally Posted By: BSK
The only QDM "failures" I've seen came from hunters setting their sights to high. They simply weren't prepared for the effort required to kill only mature bucks.

[list]
I have seen the worst outcome of QDM failures. Those were folks who went off half cocked and slaughtered does for numerous seasons with no idea of herd size, leaving their herds in near extinction mode with zero recruitment, and the inevitable outcome of a 5 year recovery to return decent age classes.

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#1708933 - 01/05/10 04:11 PM Re: TWRA graphs [Re: Setterman]
mcnairy mike
Spike


Registered: 12/28/09
Posts: 48
Loc: west tenn

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It only makes sense. Unless you have a handle on deer density in your section of the county your in, it seems like a difficult project. you have to take in account many factors.
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