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Tennessee Hunting Forums
Waterfowl & Other Winged Interests
Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draws
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<blockquote data-quote="Southern Sportsman" data-source="post: 4770718" data-attributes="member: 10399"><p><strong>Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw</strong></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>The odds are definitely the same. You don't have to be "lucky enough to get drawn twice." If you get drawn in the first round, you are guaranteed to get drawn in the second round, it's just a matter of when. So getting drawn first in the first round does not "mean nothing." It means you get put into a second barrel where your odds of getting drawn first is exponentially greater. </p><p></p><p>Use Gooch as an example because that's where I usually go and the math is a little easier. I think there are 35 blinds total. </p><p></p><p>Lets say 1000 people go to the drawing. Last year, any person's odds of getting the top pick = their odds being drawn first in the single draw. 1 in 1000 (<strong>.001 or .1%</strong>) - easy enough. </p><p></p><p>This year the odds of getting the top pick <strong>=</strong> (odds of being drawn at any point during the first round (35 out of 1000)) <strong>x</strong> (the odds of being drawn first in the second round (1 out of 35)).</p><p></p><p>Odds of being picked during the first round: - 35/1000 = .035 (3.5%) </p><p>Odds of being picked FIRST during the second round: - 1/35 = .02857143 (~ 2.9%)</p><p>Odds of getting the "top blind": - .035 x .02857143 = <strong>.001 or .1%</strong> (same as last year)</p><p></p><p></p><p>Think about it this way: If 1000 people show up, and one person out of those 1000 is going to get the top blind, the odds of being top pick are 1 in 1000. It doesn't matter if they go through one round, two rounds, or 500 rounds with the final selection decided by coin flip.</p><p></p><p>No question that the person who gets drawn first in the first round is going to gripe because "man if they hadn't changed this I would gotten the best blind." But that gripe is only because it "feels" different than it did in the past. The actual odds of getting the top blind have not changed.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Southern Sportsman, post: 4770718, member: 10399"] [b]Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw[/b] The odds are definitely the same. You don't have to be "lucky enough to get drawn twice." If you get drawn in the first round, you are guaranteed to get drawn in the second round, it's just a matter of when. So getting drawn first in the first round does not "mean nothing." It means you get put into a second barrel where your odds of getting drawn first is exponentially greater. Use Gooch as an example because that's where I usually go and the math is a little easier. I think there are 35 blinds total. Lets say 1000 people go to the drawing. Last year, any person's odds of getting the top pick = their odds being drawn first in the single draw. 1 in 1000 ([b].001 or .1%[/b]) - easy enough. This year the odds of getting the top pick [b]=[/b] (odds of being drawn at any point during the first round (35 out of 1000)) [b]x[/b] (the odds of being drawn first in the second round (1 out of 35)). Odds of being picked during the first round: - 35/1000 = .035 (3.5%) Odds of being picked FIRST during the second round: - 1/35 = .02857143 (~ 2.9%) Odds of getting the "top blind": - .035 x .02857143 = [b].001 or .1%[/b] (same as last year) Think about it this way: If 1000 people show up, and one person out of those 1000 is going to get the top blind, the odds of being top pick are 1 in 1000. It doesn't matter if they go through one round, two rounds, or 500 rounds with the final selection decided by coin flip. No question that the person who gets drawn first in the first round is going to gripe because "man if they hadn't changed this I would gotten the best blind." But that gripe is only because it "feels" different than it did in the past. The actual odds of getting the top blind have not changed. [/QUOTE]
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Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draws
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