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Long Beards & Spurs
3 bird limit???
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<blockquote data-quote="Southern Sportsman" data-source="post: 5875371" data-attributes="member: 10399"><p>32% nest success vs. 22% nest success is a 45% improvement.</p><p></p><p>I don't know the magic number for nest success rate (as mega points out, poults per hen is the main parameter they look at, but PPH is usually estimated after everything hatches and reaches a couple weeks old. So it is directly influenced by nesting rate, nest success, poult survival rate, etc.). However, the thesis paper that everyone is discussing notes that the nest success rate seen in the study counties (or more accurately, the success rate pre-delay, which was around .25) "were similar to the estimates from other <em>declining</em> populations in the Southeast." He cites three other studies of declining populations as examples — .26 (GA), .24 (SC), and .24 (LA).</p><p></p><p>I may be off, but a 32% nest success rate seems decent/reasonable. Roughly 1/3 of the nests laid successfully producing poults. Out of 1000 nests, 22% success rate means 220 produce a poult. 32% = 320 producing poults. Although the nest only has to produce 1 poult to count as "successful," if the nest isn't destroyed, most produce a handful to a dozen. So you're talking about a difference of several hundred, maybe just under 1000, more baby turkeys hatching per 1000 nests laid. I don't know how big an area would need to be to realistically house 1000 nests. Maybe [USER=2805]@megalomaniac[/USER] knows. But on a county-wide (much less statewide) scale, nest success of 32% vs. 22% seems like a pretty big deal.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Southern Sportsman, post: 5875371, member: 10399"] 32% nest success vs. 22% nest success is a 45% improvement. I don't know the magic number for nest success rate (as mega points out, poults per hen is the main parameter they look at, but PPH is usually estimated after everything hatches and reaches a couple weeks old. So it is directly influenced by nesting rate, nest success, poult survival rate, etc.). However, the thesis paper that everyone is discussing notes that the nest success rate seen in the study counties (or more accurately, the success rate pre-delay, which was around .25) "were similar to the estimates from other [I]declining[/I] populations in the Southeast." He cites three other studies of declining populations as examples — .26 (GA), .24 (SC), and .24 (LA). I may be off, but a 32% nest success rate seems decent/reasonable. Roughly 1/3 of the nests laid successfully producing poults. Out of 1000 nests, 22% success rate means 220 produce a poult. 32% = 320 producing poults. Although the nest only has to produce 1 poult to count as "successful," if the nest isn't destroyed, most produce a handful to a dozen. So you're talking about a difference of several hundred, maybe just under 1000, more baby turkeys hatching per 1000 nests laid. I don't know how big an area would need to be to realistically house 1000 nests. Maybe [USER=2805]@megalomaniac[/USER] knows. But on a county-wide (much less statewide) scale, nest success of 32% vs. 22% seems like a pretty big deal. [/QUOTE]
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3 bird limit???
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