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Voters v Nerds

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Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:57 pm

Quick summary: OK, I'm going to use this thread to provide the voters (AP, and then the Committee's) rankings compared to SP+ and F+ as this season goes along. We are now into week 6. In summary, SP+ and F+ are predictive statistical models based off of each game's play-by-play data, with the exception of garbage time, kneel downs, etc. They are algorithms that are also opponent-adjusted. They aim to identify how much better (or worse) a particular team versus the average team by using current season data (with preseason data incrementally being phased out as the season goes on). For example, SP+ ranks Alabama #1 with 31.8 points. The most "average" team or #65 team (there are 130 FBS schools) is UCLA at 0.3 points. So, on a neutral field SP+ says that Alabama is a 31.5 point favorite over UCLA. If a more SEC oriented analytical discussion is more up your alley, I highly recommend "College Football Nerds." These two guys are really good. They used to be known as "SEC Fans", I guess until the SEC sent them a cease and desist letter. They also do some excellent breakdowns of national games every week. They have a decent predictive model based on offensive/defensive yards per play and points per game (they don't adjust for garbage time). They are on YouTube and have a podcast.

First, here's the top 10 after Week 5. I've listed the teams in the following order AP, SP+, FP+ I can't get columns to work on this site.

1- Alabama Alabama Alabama
2- Clemson Ohio State Ohio State
3- Georgia Oklahoma Oklahoma
4- Ohio State Georgia Georgia
5- LSU LSU Clemson
6- Oklahoma Clemson LSU
7- Auburn Penn State Wisconsin
8- Wisconsin Wisconsin Auburn
9- ND Auburn Penn State
10- Florida Florida UCF

F+ gives no love to Florida's blow out win over Towson. They dropped the Gators from 11 to 18. SP+ is giving more love to Texas this week, as they jumped to 16 (but the AP still really loves the Longhorns). SP+ hates Notre Dame ranking them at #22 whereas the AP voters have them at #9.

Here are my Week 6 picks. Last week 4-1. Going with 7 games this week. Each week, I'm going to try and pick at least two SEC games and two Big Ten games and then we'll see who else is playing. When testing the Vegas spread, I use the SP+ and F+ spreads, adjusted by giving 3 points to the home team for home field advantage. I'll give the Vegas spread first, then the SP+, followed by F+ and my pick.

UCF @ UC: Vegas UCF -5. SP+ UCF - 6.7. F+ UCF -15.2. Pick: UCF

MSU @ OSU: Vegas OSU -20. SP+ OSU -17.5. F+ OSU -15.1. Pick: Ohio State (this is the Pete Rose special this week). College Football Nerds predicted this for OSU by 20.

Iowa @ UM: Vegas UM -3.5. SP+ UM -4.5. F+ UM -0.3. Pick UM (I'll rely on SP+).

Texas @ WVU: Vegas Tex -11.5. SP+ Tex - 13.6. F+ Tex -26.3. Pick: Texas

Cal @ Oregon: Vegas Ore -17.5. SP+ Ore -17.3. F+ Ore -31.9. Pick: Cal and the points (I'll trust SP+ on this one).

Auburn @ Florida: Vegas Aub -3. SP+ Aub -2.8. F+ Aub -5.1. Pick: Florida and the points (trusting SP+ over F+ again). College Football Nerds called this for Auburn by 11 and 8 points (each guy's prediction based on their model).

UGA @ UT: Vegas UGA -25. SP+ UGA -19.9. F+ UGA -41.4. Pick: take the Vols and the points (SP+ over F+).

I sort of got burned last week taking Bama -38 over Ole Miss. SP+ said that spread was too much while F+ said it wasn't enough. SP+ turned out right. So, I'm experimenting this week by leaning in favor of what SP+ is saying. We'll see how it all turns out.

Good luck everyone, but be careful out there.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby gator-n-buck » Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:48 pm

Pretty good picks except for taking UF over AUB. UF's offensive line has not show any ability to get any push in the run game. AUB has on of the best DL's in the country.

UF will need to rattle AUB's fr. qb to win this one.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Mon Oct 07, 2019 4:36 pm

For Week 6, I went 4-3 (8-4 on the season so far). Wins: OSU, UM, Cal, UF. Losses: UC, WVU, UGA. But for the most random of all football statistics, a fumble, I may have gone 5-2 had Tennessee been able to score a TD at the end. Had WVU not scored with 48 seconds to go, I would have been 6-1. This is why I don't gamble. On the good side, OSU's winning margin beat Vegas, SP+, and F+. The College Football Nerds and I were right. And how 'bout those Gators also beating Vegas, SP+, F+, and the College Football Nerds!

Here's the College Football Nerds top 10 after Week 6: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um9bZNk-JBw
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby gator-n-buck » Mon Oct 07, 2019 4:48 pm

OHSmitty wrote:For Week 6, I went 4-3 (8-4 on the season so far). Wins: OSU, UM, Cal, UF. Losses: UC, WVU, UGA. But for the most random of all football statistics, a fumble, I may have gone 5-2 had Tennessee been able to score a TD at the end. Had WVU not scored with 48 seconds to go, I would have been 6-1. This is why I don't gamble. On the good side, OSU's winning margin beat Vegas, SP+, and F+. The College Football Nerds and I were right. And how 'bout those Gators also beating Vegas, SP+, F+, and the College Football Nerds!

Here's the College Football Nerds top 10 after Week 6: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um9bZNk-JBw


I definitely underestimated the Gators defense to stop Aub from running the ball. I figured that they could rattle the fr. QB but thought that their running game would be the difference.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:48 pm

I just haven’t understood the love for Auburn. That and Mullen v Malzahn and SP+ just a smidge favoring the Gators, and I leaned in favor of UF.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:56 pm

FWIW, here are the after Week 6 AP and SP+ top 10. Left out F+ top 10. Too slow to update this week. Maybe I'll add it in later. Some interesting info that SP+ is telling us this week. Check out #8 and #10 in SP+. I'm wondering if that is more of a function at this point in the season of the preseason data being almost (but not entirely) phased out of SP+. For the Tigers, it's more a function of underwhelming performance against bad teams (but for TAMU #24 AP, #19 SP+), but even that was, meh. Also, I really think the statistics help show (a) there are only 8 teams, give or take, at this point with any hope of getting into the CFP, but (b) those 8 can be further segmented into 3 groups. Nonetheless, we are only half way through the season (can you believe it?) and there's still a lot of college football to be played. Starting this weekend, I think we are now getting into prime time for games. I've got 6 picks this week.

First the AP and the SP+ top 10s:

1- Bama Bama
2- Clem OSU
3- UGA/OSU(t) OU
4- LSU
5- LSU UGA
6- OU Wisky
7- UF PSU
8- Wisky [b]Clemson[/b]
9- ND UF
10- PSU Missouri

Check out Clemson's and Missouri's spots in SP+. The statistical measures are not biased, and SP+ is now predominantly current season data. Also, a team can rise after a loss to a good team and fall after a win over a bad team. For example, Michigan State was #21 last week in SP+ and is #18 this week after losing to Ohio State. SP+ really likes Iowa State (#14 SP+) and Baylor (#15 SP+), but Baylor beat Iowa State in week 5. SP+ still hates Texas and ranks the Longhorns at #20, down from #16 in SP+ last week after they beat a bad WVU team on the road by 11. SP+ is starting to show, at this point in the season with still 6 games to play, that there are 8 teams with hope, maybe 9. But two, Alabama and Ohio State, are starting to separate themselves. On a neutral field, SP+ says after week 6 that Alabama and Ohio State are both at least 3.5 points to 5.6 points better than OU, LSU, and UGA. Those three teams seem to be "group 2," but Wisconsin and PSU might be in that second group. SP+ says they are point to point and a half below that second group. Clemson is clearly not a top 4 team after 6 games, despite what most of the humans think. And Florida is on the outside looking in, but they've got a chance this weekend to change that. The Gators have separated themselves from all the rest.

Week 7 Picks

1- OU vs Texas (neutral field): Vegas: OU -11. SP+ OU -12.5. Pick: OU College Football Nerds pick OU (Daniel OU -13; Josh OU -11)

2- MSU @ Wisky: Vegas: Wisky -10.5. SP+ Wisky -12.2. Pick: Wisconsin

3- PSU @ Iowa: Vegas: PSU -3.5. SP+ PSU -5.9. Pick: PSU

4- Bama @ TAMU. Vegas: Bama -16.5. SP+ Bama - 12.9. Pick: TAMU and the points. College Football Nerds have a YouTube "preview and prediction" on this game, but I didn't check it out.

5- UF @ LSU. Vegas: LSU -13. SP+ LSU -8.2. Pick: UF and the points. College Football Nerds pick LSU (Daniel LSU -17; Josh LSU -20) (SEC fans giving no love)

6- USC @ ND. Vegas: ND -10.5. SP+ ND -9.5. Pick: USC and the points.

8-4 overall to date, and I'm picking two road dogs and the points and one home dog and the points. Come on SP+.

I'm going turkey hunting this weekend. I don't have a game I have to watch.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:57 pm

FWIW, here are the after Week 6 AP and SP+ top 10. Left out F+ top 10. Too slow to update this week. Maybe I'll add it in later. Some interesting info that SP+ is telling us this week. Check out #8 and #10 in SP+. I'm wondering if that is more of a function at this point in the season of the preseason data being almost (but not entirely) phased out of SP+. For the Tigers, it's more a function of underwhelming performance against bad teams (but for TAMU #24 AP, #19 SP+), but even that was, meh. Also, I really think the statistics help show (a) there are only 8 teams, give or take, at this point with any hope of getting into the CFP, but (b) those 8 can be further segmented into 3 groups. Nonetheless, we are only half way through the season (can you believe it?) and there's still a lot of college football to be played. Starting this weekend, I think we are now getting into prime time for games. I've got 6 picks this week.

First the AP and the SP+ top 10s:

1- Bama Bama
2- Clem OSU
3- UGA/OSU(t) OU
4- LSU
5- LSU UGA
6- OU Wisky
7- UF PSU
8- Wisky [b]Clemson[/b]
9- ND UF
10- PSU Missouri

Check out Clemson's and Missouri's spots in SP+. The statistical measures are not biased, and SP+ is now predominantly current season data. Also, a team can rise after a loss to a good team and fall after a win over a bad team. For example, Michigan State was #21 last week in SP+ and is #18 this week after losing to Ohio State. SP+ really likes Iowa State (#14 SP+) and Baylor (#15 SP+), but Baylor beat Iowa State in week 5. SP+ still hates Texas and ranks the Longhorns at #20, down from #16 in SP+ last week after they beat a bad WVU team on the road by 11. SP+ is starting to show, at this point in the season with still 6 games to play, that there are 8 teams with hope, maybe 9. But two, Alabama and Ohio State, are starting to separate themselves. On a neutral field, SP+ says after week 6 that Alabama and Ohio State are both at least 3.5 points to 5.6 points better than OU, LSU, and UGA. Those three teams seem to be "group 2," but Wisconsin and PSU might be in that second group. SP+ says they are point to point and a half below that second group. Clemson is clearly not a top 4 team after 6 games, despite what most of the humans think. And Florida is on the outside looking in, but they've got a chance this weekend to change that. The Gators have separated themselves from all the rest.

Week 7 Picks

1- OU vs Texas (neutral field): Vegas: OU -11. SP+ OU -12.5. Pick: OU College Football Nerds pick OU (Daniel OU -13; Josh OU -11)

2- MSU @ Wisky: Vegas: Wisky -10.5. SP+ Wisky -12.2. Pick: Wisconsin

3- PSU @ Iowa: Vegas: PSU -3.5. SP+ PSU -5.9. Pick: PSU

4- Bama @ TAMU. Vegas: Bama -16.5. SP+ Bama - 12.9. Pick: TAMU and the points. College Football Nerds have a YouTube "preview and prediction" on this game, but I didn't check it out.

5- UF @ LSU. Vegas: LSU -13. SP+ LSU -8.2. Pick: UF and the points. College Football Nerds pick LSU (Daniel LSU -17; Josh LSU -20) (SEC fans giving no love)

6- USC @ ND. Vegas: ND -10.5. SP+ ND -9.5. Pick: USC and the points.

8-4 overall to date, and I'm picking two road dogs and the points and one home dog and the points. Come on SP+.

I'm going turkey hunting this weekend. I don't have a game I have to watch.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:58 pm

double post. don't know why that happened.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Thu Oct 10, 2019 2:45 pm

Football Outsiders finally posted their F+ rankings, a day late. F+ pretty much follows SP+ 1-8 (except they flip UGA and LSU, Clemson and PSU), but check out F+ 9 and 10 after week 6:

1-Bama
2- OSU
3- OU
4- UGA
5- LSU
6-Wisky
7- Clemson
8- PSU
9- Missouri
10- [b]Baylor[/b]

SP+ and F+ agree that Missouri is a top 10 team. F+ doesn't like UF. It has the Gators at #19! (SP+ has the Gators at #9; there's some statistical aberration at work). F+ also dislikes Texas, same as SP+, and also doesn't like TAMU. F+ has them at #32. Both algos laugh at the voters and their love affair with Clemson.

Going back to the picks, SP+ and F+ both agree that OU, Wisky, and PSU should win and beat the Vegas spread. In fact, SP+ and F+ agree exactly that OU is 12.5 points better than Texas, not 11 which is the Vegas line. For the other 3 picks, SP+ and F+ disagree. F+ thinks both Bama and ND are at least 3 TDs better than TAMU and USC, while SP+ thinks those will be closer games. F+ also thinks LSU beats UF and the Vegas spread, but SP+ thinks the Gators cover. We'll find out Saturday.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby EastTNHunter » Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:27 pm

The same Missouri that lost to Wyoming is a top 10 team?
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby cbhunter » Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:48 pm

EastTNHunter wrote:The same Missouri that lost to Wyoming is a top 10 team?
yeah I was wondering what F rankings were but I think it’s self explanatory what the f stands for


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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby TreyB » Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:05 pm

EastTNHunter wrote:The same Missouri that lost to Wyoming is a top 10 team?


Exactly lol
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:21 pm

EastTNHunter wrote:The same Missouri that lost to Wyoming is a top 10 team?


I was surprised by that as well, and Baylor (and Florida) in the F+ rankings. The first thing to remember is the statistics can’t read. They don’t see or “comprehend” the word “Wyoming.” What these algos do is crunch the results of every play Missouri has had to date, down and distance, the opponent, offense, defense and special teams, whether the name of the other team is “Wyoming” or “Georgia.” The algos don’t read, but they do math very well.

But Missouri’s best win according to SP+ is USCar who’s #35 per SP+. So, what I think is still largely influencing the Missouri result after week 6 is that the preseason data (returning production, recruiting, etc) are still in the measure. Bill Connolly used to remove preseason data after week 6, but he said he’s leaving it in all season this year, incrementally declining in value by week. Preseason, SP+ ranked Missouri #13. If the algo could talk, it would say Missouri has only risen 3 digits in the rankings. Us humans place significance on 1-10, 11-20, etc. The algos just care about the results of the data they are programmed to crunch. So, the Missouri result will self-correct as the current season data builds. Of course, if Missouri keeps winning, then the algo rankings are also increasingly supported by data.
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Re: Voters v Nerds

Postby OHSmitty » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:53 pm

Week 7: first the AP, followed by SP+ and then F+

1-Bama Ohio State Ohio State
2-LSU Bama Bama
3-Clemson Oklahoma Wisconsin
4-Ohio State Wisconsin Oklahoma
5-Oklahoma LSU LSU
6-Wisconsin Penn St Clemson
7-Penn St Georgia Georgia
8-Notre Dame Clemson Penn St
9-Florida Oregon Missouri
10-Georgia Missouri Oregon

Some observations: As expected, the voters over-rewarded LSU and over-punished Georgia. The analytics agree that Clemson is not a top 4 team today. Lots of normalcy and recency bias in the AP poll as usual. Voters love Notre Dame, and rank them ahead of Georgia who beat them! The analytics confirm that Notre Dame is pretty meh (SP+ ranks them #21; F+ ranks them # 17). The analytics now agree that Missouri is a top 10 team. AP ranks them #27! What does a week 1 loss to Wyoming have to do with anything six weeks later? What does Alabama's blow out loss to Clemson in the national championship game 10 months ago have to do with anything? Right. Nothing at all.

The picks (3-2 last week; 11-6 overall)

OSU @ NW Vegas: OSU -28. Pick: OSU

Oregon @ Washington Vegas: Ore -3. Pick: Washington and the points

Michigan @ PSU Vegas: PSU -9. Pick: Michigan and the points (I don't have high confidence that Ohio State beats the spread (SP+ says OSU is 26.3 points better than NW). This Michigan pick inspires even less confidence with me. We all know how lousy Michigan's record is against ranked teams on the road. On my list of most over-rated coaches, Harbaugh and Franklin are in my top 5. PSU has a very legit D, which spells bad news for Michigan's rather inept offense. But PSU hasn't been lighting it up on O either. I think Michigan's D is good enough to keep this a one TD win for PSU. But it's a white-out in Happy Valley.)

Tennessee @ Alabama Vegas: Bama -34.5. Pick: Tennessee and the points. SP+ says Alabama is 27.3 points better than UT, not 35. I got burned with the Ole Miss/Bama game. I'm going with what SP+ is telling me this time.

Clemson @ Louisville Vegas: Clemson -23.5. Pick: UPSET ALERT! Louisville and the points. SP+ says Clemson is only 17.5 points better in this game. Clemson is the worst of all the undefeated teams in missed tackles. They are averaging double digit missed tackles. The Clemson defense is in the lower half of FBS teams in QB pressures. The Clemson QB is still under-performing. The Clemson running game is now under-performing. Florida State is awful.

Arizona State @ Utah Vegas: Utah -13.5. Pick: ASU and the points.
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